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Thursday, December 27, 2007

More Insider Buying at Jupitermedia Corp. (JUPM)

There was another insider buy reported today at Jupitermedia Corp. (more charts at JUPM).


Click Chart to view full sized chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

JupiterMedia is not a cheap stock on PE and PEG, but you have to take notice of a stock when insiders keep buying it, especially AFTER it has made a major move from under $1.00 to over $20 before correcting (we hope) to less than $4. Perhaps the very low price/sales and price/book ratio is what has insiders buying?

  • Current Valuation metrics from Yahoo!

    Market Cap (intraday): 134.75M
    Enterprise Value (27-Dec-07): 216.23M
    Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
    Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) : 32.42
    PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 8.48
    Price/Sales (ttm): 1.13
    Price/Book (mrq): 0.66

    Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 1.56
    Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 8.954
Classification of Insider: Dir/10%/OFCR/ Chair & CEO
Name: Alan Meckler
$15k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
4.0k = Number of Shares
$3.64 = Average Price Paid
$3.74 = Recent Stock Price (delayed)
112k = Average Daily Volume (composite timeframe)
$131M = Company Market Capitalization
2007-12-24 = Purchase Date
2007-12-27 = Filing Date

Form Four Document (top link on page -- ".html"):
SEC Main Page for Form 4 Filings


Click to view full sized chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Insider selling is not nearly as important to monitor as insider buying.

From SEC Form 4 "Explanation of Responses"
1. Mr. Meckler now indirectly owns 3,771,973 shares: 1,328,013 shares held in trusts for the benefit of Mr. Meckler's four children and over which Mr. Meckler exercises investment control, 1,046,125 shares are held in the Alan M. Meckler 2007 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust over which Mr. Meckler exercises investment but not voting control, 953,875 shares are held in the Alan M. Meckler 2007 Grantor Retained Annuity Trust II over which Mr. Meckler exercises investment but not voting control, 259,000 shares donated by Mr. Meckler to the Meckler Foundation, a non-profit charitable foundation founded by Mr. Meckler and for which he acts as a trustee, 11,900 shares purchased by the Meckler Foundation, 114,960 shares purchased by Mr. Meckler's wife and 58,100 shares held in trust for the benefit of Mr. Meckler's mother and over which he exercises investment control.


Other recent Insider buys:


  • 2007-11-26 = Purchase Date
    Dir/10%/OFCR/ Chair & CEO = Classification of Insider
    $35k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
    10k = Number of Shares
    3.47 = Average Price Paid

  • 2007-11-26 = Purchase Date
    Dir/OFCR/ Pres. & COO = Classification of Insider
    $35k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
    10k = Number of Shares
    3.47 = Average Price Paid

  • 2007-11-15 = Purchase Date
    Dir/10%/OFCR/ Chair & CEO = Classification of Insider
    $17k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
    4.6k = Number of Shares
    3.72 = Average Price Paid

  • 2007-11-14 = Purchase Date
    Dir/ = Classification of Insider
    $183k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
    50k = Number of Shares
    3.69 = Average Price Paid

  • 2007-11-13 = Purchase Date
    Dir/10%/OFCR/ Chair & CEO = Classification of Insider
    $31k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
    8.1k = Number of Shares
    3.78 = Average Price Paid

Disclaimer. I bought some shares last month at $3.60 after the 11/13 and 11/16 insider buys.

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Geoglobal Surges on GSPC's Good News from Krishna-Godavari Basin

Today canadian driller Geoglobal Resources (GGR Charts) surged on news from the Krishna-Godavari (KG) Basin. Livemint.com reported GSPC, the Gujarat government-owned hydrocarbon company Gujarat State Petroleum Corp., struck natural gas at two more wells in its Krishna Godavari field in eastern coast of India off Andhra Pradesh. This area is also known as Deendayal block.

Click chart to see full sized version courtesy of stockcharts.com

GSPC has informed the director general of hydrocarbons (DGH), an upstream advisory and technical regulatory body, about the new gas find last week. GSPC managing director D.J. Pandian couldn’t be reached for comment.

The natural gas from KG basin is important for GSPC as it is forced to buy natural gas for its customers from liquefied natural gas (LNG) market at a price of $12-14 (Rs473-552) per million British thermal unit (mBtu) equivalent.

Its existing gas source at Hazira is depleting and GSPC requires its own natural gas source to keep its customer base and grow.

It (GSPC) had announced its biggest ever discovery of 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas from this field at the Deendayal block in mid-2005 but DGH had officially put the reserves figure at 3.6tcf—less than 20% of what GSPC had claimed. Instead of challenging the claim, DGH had asked the corporation to drill more wells to prove its claim of the field having 20 tcf of natural gas.

Striking gas in these two wells would help GSPC prove its claim of higher quantity of natural gas in this field, which it was struggling to do for long,” said a ministry of petroleum and natural gas official who also didn’t want to be named.

GGR has a 5% carried interest in the KG/Deendayal offshore block. GSPC holds 80% of equity in the Deendayal block with 10% held by Jubilant Enpro Ltd, which is part of the Jubilant Corp. (Members of the family that owns Jubilant also have a significant stake in HT Media Ltd, the publisher of Mint where this article came from.)

Disclaimer: I purchased GGR for my newsletter portfolio between $0.94 and $2.25 in 2004 and I have shares purchased as low as 12¢ in my personal portfolio I took quite a bit of profits all the way into the mid teens. I have huge profits in this already. I have been trading the volatility around this core position to generate more gains and may buy or sell at any time. This is a HIGHLY SPECULATIVE stock with no income.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Finisar CEO Rawls Buys 100,000 Shares at $1.43


Finisar Corp. (More FNSR Charts) CEO, Jerry Rawls, bought 100,000 shares of Finisar stock in the open market on 12/17 and 12/18 at an average price of $1.43 per share.

According to the SEC filing and Yahoo!, this brings his stake (Note 1) to 2,876,203 shares.

On December 14, 2007, two other Finisar insiders purchased 10,000 shares each.
  • Joseph A Young added 10,000 shares at $1.43 per share. This follows non open market purchases on June 15, 2006 of 5,434 shares at $1.96 per share ($10,650) and 5,434 more shares at $2.02 per share ($11,000)
  • Anders Olsson added 10,000 shares at $1.48 per share ($14,800) after selling 20,000 shares in July 2006 at $3.27 per share (Proceeds of $65,400 nice trading!)

About Finisar

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR) is a global technology leader for fiber optic components and subsystems and network test and monitoring systems. These products enable high-speed voice, video and data communications for networking, storage and wireless applications over Local Area Networks (LANs), Storage Area Networks (SANs), and Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs) using Ethernet, Fibre Channel, IP, SAS, SATA and SONET/SDH protocols. The Company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, USA. More information can be found at http://www.finisar.com/ and "Kirk's Investment Newsletter."

1. Shares are held by the Rawls Family, L.P. Mr. Rawls is the president of the Rawls Management Corporation, which is the general partner of the Rawls Family, L.P.

Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter today to get my current outlook for FederFinsar including target prices for 2008 and 2009.

Disclaimer: I own FNSR in my personal and newsletter portfolios. I may trade around a core position at any time.

FDX: FedEx Revenue Grows but Earnings Down on Higher Fuel Costs

Today Memphis based Federal Express (FDX: more charts) reported lower earings per share on higher revenue compared to a year ago due to higher fuel costs.


FedEx reported $1.54 per share which was $0.04 better than average analyst estimates and at the high end of their own November estimate of $1.45 to $1.55 per share.

High fuel prices and weak U.S. economic growth year over year have impacted our business,” said Frederick W. Smith, FedEx Corp. chairman, president and chief executive officer. “We continue to benefit from solid international growth, which helps mitigate softness in U.S. industrial production. While we see challenging near-term economic trends, we remain confident about long-term prospects in all our business segments.”

FedEx Corp. reported the following consolidated results for the second quarter:

  • Revenue of $9.45 billion, up 6% from $8.93 billion the previous year
  • Operating income of $783 million, down 7% from $839 million a year ago
  • Operating margin of 8.3%, down from 9.4% the previous year
  • Net income of $479 million, down 6% from last year’s $511 million

FedEx provided the following outlook:

  • Q3 EPS of 1.15 to $1.30 per diluted share compared to $1.35 a year ago
  • For the full fiscal year ending May 2008, EPS of $6.40 to $6.70 per diluted share.

As of 12/17/07, analysts had estimated FY2008 earnings to be $6.28 to $6.76 so this is nice upgrade.

Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter today to get my current outlook for Federal Express including target prices for 2008 and 2009.

Disclaimer: I own FDX in my personal and newsletter portfolios with gains over 100% in both. I may trade around a core position at any time.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Finisar Up After Regaining NASDAQ Listing Compliance

Finisar (more FNSR Charts) Regains Compliance With Nasdaq Listing Requirements

SUNNYVALE, CA, Dec 10, 2007 (Web Site Press Release) -- Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR), a technology leader in gigabit fiber optic solutions for high-speed data networks, today announced it had received confirmation that the Nasdaq Listing and Hearing Council has determined that, with the filing of its previously delayed annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q on December 4, 2007, Finisar has demonstrated compliance with Nasdaq's filing requirements under its Marketplace Rules. Accordingly, Finisar's common stock will continue to be listed on The Nasdaq Global Select Market.

About Finisar

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR) is a global technology leader for fiber optic components and subsystems and network test and monitoring systems. These products enable high-speed voice, video and data communications for networking, storage and wireless applications over Local Area Networks (LANs), Storage Area Networks (SANs), and Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs) using Ethernet, Fibre Channel, IP, SAS, SATA and SONET/SDH protocols. The Company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, USA. More information can be found at http://www.finisar.com/ and "Kirk's Investment Newsletter."



Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter today to get my current outlook for Finisar including buy and sell levels to trade around a core position.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Sub-prime Meltdown Crisis Explained

In the "funny but true" category, this is an exceptional (and most hilarious) explanation of the sub-prime financial crisis.

"Rewarding the Ingenuity of the Markets"

Question: "Isn't that rewarding greed and stupidity?"

Answer: "No, no. It is rewarding.... the ingenuity of the markets."

"We want this money to .... so we can continue to lend money as if nothing happened without thinking too much about it."

Request Invitation to FREE facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term."




Q: "If you don't get this money, what then?"

A: "Well then there would be another market crash. Then we would say what we always say. It is not us that will suffer, it is your pension fund."

CD Rate Survey

The best rate is 5.45% at Countrywide Bank for 3 months

1 and 2 yrs: 5.21% at Apple Bank for Savings

3 yrs: 5.00% at Capital One Bank & Flagstar Bank

5 yrs: 5.26% at Apple Bank for Savings

7 & 10 yrs: 5.10% at Capital One Bank

From the Highest CD Rates survey at forbestadvice.com

Friday, December 07, 2007

How Do You Asset Allocate Across Different Accounts?

"I am sure most of you have multiple accounts, how do you deal with this issue?"

From our forum "Novice Corner - A place to learn and help others" in the facebook group "Investing for the Long Term."

JG Singh asked:

My question is regarding diversifying or balancing my portfolio.

I have two 401k accounts, 2 IRAs, 2 rothIRAs and a trading account. I have noticed that I have been diversifying and balancing each account on its own resulting in too many positions and more diversification than probably needed. As a result I move with S&P. (altough I am recovering faster than S&P since last week)

What should my approach be? should I be diversified overall (in combined portfolio) or should I worry about diversifying them individually?

I am sure most of you have multiple accounts, how do you deal with this issue?

My reply:

I not only have multiple accounts, but multiple strategies as I experiment with new ideas. I believe in diversification of strategies not just asset classes so I have some "buckets of money" that follow my explore portfolio, some that follow index investing and some that I use to "wing it."

The most important thing to do is put it all on a single spreadsheet where you track your overall asset allocation. It doesn't matter if you have my free portfolio that consists of 120 less your age in equities (VTSMX) with the remainder in Total Bond (VBMFX) or the 7 Vanguard Index Fund core portfolio I recommend in my newsletter mixed with 16 stocks from my explore portfolio and 100 stocks and funds you've accumulated over the years. You want to start with EVERYTHING on a single spreadsheet to see where you are.

The hardest part with putting it all on a single spreadsheet is figuring out how your managed mutual funds are allocated. Mutual funds often have “style drift” where they might start out as a small cap US fund, do great for 10 or 20 years then drift into international and large cap funds as they try to invest the money that keeps flowing in. I’ve owned Fidelities fantastic Contra and Low Priced Stock funds for a long time and they have crushed the S&P500.

Chart of relative performance

Click to see full sized chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

As you can see from the links, FLPSX has drifted to a “mid-cap blend” whereas I bought it in 1998 when it was a small cap value fund. I bought FLPSX to diversify from my small and large cap growth stocks that I made a small fortune on in the 1990’s. Value and small cap have done great the last decade vs.growth so the fund’s style has drifted. Not only that, but FLPSX is only 65% in the US and 35% overseas (Fund Holdings) as it has gone overseas to find value. Its top holding as of 9/30/07 was Petrobras, the oil company in Brazil!

If you really want to stick to plan, you should update your asset allocation to account for style drift each year and make sure you break-down your large holdings into their component asset classes, especially if this materially changes your overall asset allocation.

Make sure you visit:

Thursday, December 06, 2007

Grilled Bear Meat on the Menu

Groundzero posted the following comment in our facebook group "Spiral Forum: Trading Futures with Groundzero Discussions" to Glen's comment "The bears are feeling the heat right about now...."

Yes, and these bears have no idea what is still in store for them over the next few weeks...

GZ (December 6, 2007)
I replied here with the following observation:

If we come out of the hole like we did in 1998 after we had the big banking bottom in 1998, they will be in deep trouble. I recall my "(newsletter) explore portfolio" (started Sept. 30, 1998) went from being down about 20% in October (1998) to finishing December (1998) at up 58% followed by 117% more in 1999 (performance graph.) I think some of the four letter stocks I like (today) could be on some naked short lists, a new trick by bears to drive prices down.... so if they get insolvent, their broker/dealer backers will have to cover... it could be a bloody mess as some of us stock up grilled bear meat to feast on for the next ten years.
Being "naked short" means someone sold shares they were unable to borrow. Thus, if they are forced to cover short due to a margin call, they will have to go find shares to buy at any price. If you think a short covering rally is big, wait until we see some naked shorts forced to cover.

Recent 10 to 20% one day gains in stocks I have such as VLNC, VRGY and FNSR will look tame to what a naked short rally could look like.

Just think about how much these little stocks could move up if the investing public were to one day return to high risk growth stocks that go up.





Monday, December 03, 2007

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal

Members of our "Investing for the Long Term" discussion forum report Sy Harding's model has a MACD buy signal for the US Stock Markets.

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal


The MACD for the S&P500 has turned positive and members of our "Sy Harding Discussion Forum" at the facebook group "Investing for the Long Term" have said it was the "Seasons in the Sun Signal" to return to the US stock markets after getting out in May. There has been no confirmation if Sy Harding has actually issued a buy signal as rumors of a "second model" have appeared.

Request Invitation to FREE facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term."

Make sure you visit:

Sunday, December 02, 2007

Market Timer Sy Harding Favors Subprime Loan Bank Bailout

In an article this Sunday, Sy Harding said he favors a bailout of the banking system to prevent the economy from falling into even deeper trouble.

Sy makes a good point that a government bailout now will benefit everyone, not just the banks and risk takers:

"It's not even just the banks and the hapless homeowners who will lose their homes. It will be everyone. Think deep recession because a banking system on which business depends is barely operating. Everyone would suffer."

Sy reminds us that this would not be the first time taxpayers have come to the rescue of risk takers who lost.

"In the early 1990s, greed and foolishness got the banks in trouble again, resulting in the scandals and losses surrounding the infamous savings & loan collapse. Congress formed the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), which protected bank depositors by taking over or closing more than a thousand S&Ls and failed commercial banks, at a cost to taxpayers estimated to be more than $600 billion.

The current situation is just as serious
."

As a fiscal conservative who is a registered Libertarian, I hate to see the government bailout people who make bad choices at the expense of those who make responsible choices. But Sy Harding makes some very valid points that a collapse of our financial institutions won't do anyone any good. I believe those permabears who are short the stocks and negative on the US will speak loudly against this bailout, but we need to remember they are "talking their positions" with little interest in what is best for everyone.

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal

On a seperate note, the MACD for the S&P500 has turned positive and members of our "Sy Harding Discussion Forum" at the facebook group "Investing for the Long Term" have said it was the "Seasons in the Sun Signal" to return to the US stock markets after getting out in May.

Saturday, December 01, 2007

Number of New Lows on NYSE above 450


Click to see full sized chart courtesy of stockcharts.com


This chart shows the number of NYSE stocks that are making new 52 week lows (red spikes) plotted with the S&P500 in black. You can see from the chart that spikes above 450 new lows are fairly rare. The chart also shows that buying after these spikes retreat has provided great returns in the short term (2001) and often in the long term (1994, 1998, 2002, 2004 and hopefully now in 2007.)



I believe this chart is more evidence that the market is trying, as odd as it seems near all time highs for the averages, to make a very major bottom similar to the 1998 and 2002/2003 bottoms.

Most really good bottoms before major advances are double or triple bottoms. 1998 was a double bottom and 2002/3 was a triple bottom with two significant lows made in 2002 and a test of those lows, about 4% higher, in 2003.

Also of note is this attempt to make a major bottom is coming on what I call a test of the breakout above the 2000 highs.

The bears will say the market is making a double top before crashing as the market comes apart.

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