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Saturday, July 12, 2008

Bear Market Statistics

2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics through 07/11/08

We are currently in a bear market. (See numerical data below the chart.) We had similar bear markets with just over 20% declines in 1990 and 1998 but the average bear market is more like 30% because that includes the 2000 to 2002 bear market where the S&P500 fell 50% and the great depression where the markets fell much more.

2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics 07/12/08

S&P500 Chart

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 07/11/08 at 1,225.35
Current S&P500 Price 1,239.49
Decline in Pts 336.60
Decline in % 21.4%
Max Decline 22.3%
  • =>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 22.3% and we are currently 21.4% off the peak.
  • =>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 20.8%

DJIA Charts

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 07/07/08 at 11,120.74
Current DJIA Price 11,100.54
Decline in Pts 3,179.42
Decline in % 22.3%
Max Decline 22.1%
  • =>This means the correction from high to low has been 22.1% and we are currently 22.3% off the peak.
  • =>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low was 21.6%


Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,239.08
Decline in Pts 622.43
Decline in % 21.8%
Max Decline 24.7%
  • =>This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 24.7% and we are currently 0.217518024 21.8% off the peak.
  • =>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low was 24.1%
The good news is the charts are showing some divergence with lower prices while CMF and RSI have turned up. These indicators along with the "Investors’ Intelligence Bull Bear sentimetn survey data" and "proprietary VIX" charts I recently updated and will send to my newsletter subscribers this weekend are signaling that a bottom "may" be close at hand. These chart indicators are far from perfect at predicting the future, but they have been reliable at identifying reasonable times to take profits and later buy back shares in the past.

Note: I don't recommend trying to time the markets with anything more than a few percent of your overall portfolio. With that said, these charts can be helpful for picking great times to "rebalance" your portfolios when markets are stretched to extremes rather than wait to do it once a year. Make sure you read my article "Using Asset Allocation to make money in a Flat Market" to get an idea what I mean.

For us mere mortals who KNOW we can't read the future with a crystal ball, a well diversified basked of index funds for our core portfolios, such as the ones I recommend in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" for the majority of your assets is the way to go.
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To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!
  • Since 1/1/1999 through 6/31/08 my "explore" portfolio is up 175% while the S&P500 is only up 20% and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is only up 71%
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