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Sunday, August 31, 2008

FDIC List of Banks in Danger of Failure Soars

FDIC List of Problem Banks up 30%: On Tuesday, August 26, 2008 the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC www.fdic.gov) announced in its quarterly banking report that their list of "problem banks" (see "Problem List" below) for the second quarter of 2008 increased 30% from to 117 financial institutions. The 117 institutions on the problem list is the largest number since the middle of 2003. Total assets of institutions on the problem list increased 200% from $26 billion to $78 billion. $32 billion of this $56 gain came from IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA, which failed in July.
NEW==> Thursday, February 26, 2009:
FDIC List of Banks in Danger of Failure Soars 47%
Reported net income of member institutions fell 86.5% or $31.8 billion to only $5.0 billion, the lowest earnings for the industry except for the fourth quarter last year (2007) and the fourth quarter of 1991.
"By any yardstick, it was another rough quarter for bank earnings, but the results were not unexpected as the industry coped with financial market disruptions, the housing slump, worsening economic conditions and the overall downturn in the credit cycle." said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair.
This decline in the banking industry is reflected in the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) Weekly leading index which has fallen to a 28-year low, the lowest reading since June 13, 1980.
For more information, see:
Other major findings in the FDIC's latest Quarterly Banking Profile include:

Provisions for loan losses continue to be the main cause of falling earnings.
"Rising levels of troubled loans, particularly in real estate portfolios, led many institutions to increase their provisions for loan losses in the quarter. Loss provisions totaled $50.2 billion, more than four times the $11.4 billion the industry set aside in the second quarter of 2007. Almost a third of the industry's net operating revenue (net interest income plus total noninterest income) went to building up loan-loss reserves."
Noncurrent loans are up 20% to 2.04% of all loans. The number continues to rise quickly to the highest level since 1993.
"The amount of noncurrent loans and leases (90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status) increased by $26.7 billion during the second quarter, following a $26.2 billion increase in the first quarter and a $27.0 billion increase in the fourth quarter of 2007. Almost 90 percent of the increase in noncurrent loans and leases in the last three quarters consisted of real estate loans, but noncurrent levels have been rising in all major loan categories. "

Assets of insured member institutions declined.
"Total assets of FDIC-insured institutions declined during the quarter for the first time since 2002. The $68.6 billion (0.5 percent) decline was caused by a reduction in trading assets at a few large banks. Assets in trading accounts, which increased by $135.2 billion in the first quarter, declined by $118.9 billion (11.8 percent) in the second quarter. In addition, the industry's holdings of one- to four-family residential mortgage loans fell by $61.4 billion (2.8 percent). Real estate construction and development loans declined for the first time since 1997, falling by $5.4 billion (0.9 percent)."

The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund reserve ratio fell.
"Due to a significant increase in loss reserves, including reserves for failures that have occurred since June 30th, the DIF balance fell to $45.2 billion at the end of the second quarter, down from $52.8 billion at the end of the first quarter. While insured deposits rose only 0.5 percent during the quarter, the decline in the fund balance caused the reserve ratio to fall to 1.01 percent as of June 30th from 1.19 percent one quarter earlier. Because the reserve ratio is now below 1.15 percent, the Federal Deposit Insurance Reform Act of 2005 requires the FDIC to develop a restoration plan that will raise the reserve ratio to no less than 1.15 percent within five years."
Problem List: The FDIC does not make its list of member institutions in danger of failing public because it does not want to contribute to a "run on the bank" by concerned depositors. One indication a bank may be on the list is they pay very high CD rates in an attempt to attract capital. Richard (Dick) Bove of Landenburg Thalmann has a methodology for estimating what banks are in trouble.
See Dick Bove's List of Banks In Danger of Failing
IndyMac Bankcorp was at the top of Bove's list before it failed based on non performing assets as a percentage of equity.

Graph: ECRI's WLI growth vs the DJIA

Make sure you read the attached "August 2008 Fixed Income Report" to see my graph of ECRI's WLI growth rate vs. the DJIA. You can see WLI growth started its plunge well before the stock market peaked last summer.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Q2 2008 PCE, GDP and Jobs All Better Than Expected

The Q2-2008 PCE (Personal consumption expenditures) price index remains high and was unchanged at up 4.2%.
==> Highest Yield CDs & Best Mortgage Rates <==
Oil and food prices are down now so headline inflation should be lower in future quarters if oil and food remain

Led by strong exports, Q2 Real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up to 3.3% from 1.9%. Report excerpts:
"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).


The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software.
Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased

Real exports of goods and services increased 13.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 5.1 percent in the first.

Real imports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.8 percent.


Kirk: The weak dollar led to lower imports and higher exports. A weak economy also leads to lower imports. Since what we imported fell by 7.6%, then 7.6% is added to GDP. Had Q2 imports remained flat, GDP would have been 7.6% lower or negative 4.0%!

To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today! Subscribe NOW and get the August 2008 issue for FREE!

The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment.
"
Jobless claims for the week ended 8/23 fell 10,000 to 425,000.

The 4-week moving average of jobless claims fell 6,000 to 440,250

To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!
  • Since 1/1/1999 through 7/31/08 my "explore" portfolio is up 180% while the S&P500 is only up 19% and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is only up 62%
    .
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More at
==>US Inflation Data - August 2008 Release Summary <==
Next release - September 26, 2008 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for Second Quarter 2008 (Final) Gross Domestic Product

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Insana Capital Partners Hedge Fund to Close

CNBC's Ron Insana (profile and photo courtesy of CNBC) is folding the tent on his Insana Capital Partners L.P. hedge fund called "Legends." On August 8, 2008 sent a letter to his investors to announce they were closing shop and taking a job with Steven Cohen of SAC Capital.
"Our current level of assets under management, coupled with the extraordinarily difficult capital-raising environment, make it imprudent for Insana Capital Partners to continue business operations."
Ronald G. Insana left CNBC in March 2006 to set-up Insana Capital Partners L.P. This was a hedge fund known as a "fund of funds." Ron had the idea to use his fame to charge people hedge fund fees to select hedge funds. At the time I thought this was much like CMGI at the peak of the internet bubble. CMGI as an over valued internet holding company that invested in internet stocks then got a similar premium for its investments. According to the NY Times article, "Running a Hedge Fund Is Harder Than It Looks on TV," there was an advantage of paying Insana, access to great funds:
"His clients would be invested in SAC Capital, managed by Steven A. Cohen; Icahn Partners, managed by Carl C. Icahn; or the Renaissance Technologies Corporation, run by James H. Simons, perhaps the most successful hedge fund manager on the planet. These funds are typically closed to the public."
Insana raised $116 million and "only" lost 5% over a period the S&P500 fell more than 15%. This is good performance for someone like me who writes an investment newsletter that tries to beat the S&P500 but that is not the type of performance hedge fund investors pay for. To get the big fees, hedge fund investors expect their managers to have been short the market and show a profit. Of course, readers of my blog know I think market timing is next to impossible to do over and over so I rely on asset allocation and stock selection, but there seems to be an endless supply of suckers who will pay huge fees to take excessive risk.

Hedge funds are great things to manage especially if you get the standard 2% of assets plus 20% of profits fee structure. The fee structure only benefits the manager and encourages excessive risk taking. For example: A savvy hedge fund manager could offer two funds called "Red Fund" and "Black Fund." He could take 2% of funds collected for both then take the money for each fund and put them on the red and black bets at Las Vegas. If Black comes up, he would get 20% of the winnings from the black bet plus the 2%. Even better, he'd be able to market that fund again to the investors to get more money to do it again since he was so successful. Of course the Red Fund investors would be very unhappy to have all their money vanish.

Ron shows an extreme level of arrogance as a commentator on CNBC so it must hurt him to have been caught in the hedge fund bubble after writing a book called “Trendwatching: Don’t be Fooled by the Next Investment Fad, Mania, or Bubble." I guess even the smartest people find the huge fees available to hedge fund managers hard to resist.

I hope people read these stories like this to be reminded of my advice to use the "core and explore" type of investing. The fees for "core and explore" are tiny for your core portfolio made of index funds plus an explore portfolio where you try to beat the core portfolio with 5 to 20% of your funds with my newsletter fee and commissions to buy stocks your only additional fees.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

US Inflation Data - August 2008 Release Summary

United States Inflation Data for June and July 2008 released during August 2008.

Aug 4: June PCE up 0.6%
  • Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.1 billion, or 0.6%.
  • The PCE price index increased 0.8% in June, compared with an increase of 0.5% in May.
  • The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3%, compared with an increase of 0.2%.
  • Real PCE, PCE adjusted to remove price changes, decreased 0.2% in June, in contrast to an increase of 0.3%t in May.
  • PCE News Release text and PCE archive
Aug 14: July CPI up 0.5%
  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5% in July.
  • The July level of 219.964 (1982-84=100) was 5.6% higher than in July 2007.
  • On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.8 percent in July, following a 1.1 percent increase in June. The index for energy rose sharply for the third straight month, increasing 4.0 percent in July and accounting for about half of the overall increase in the all items index.
  • Core CPI, the index for all items less food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in July, the second straight such increase.
  • CPI News Release and CPI archive
Aug 19: July PPI up 1.2% vs. 0.3% Expected
  • Led by higher by prices for food and energy, the U.S. Producer Price Index, PPI, soared 1.2% in July. This 1.2% gain was four times higher than the average of economists guesses of 0.3%.
  • Stripping out volatile food and energy, core PPI gained 0.7%
  • Year-over-year, PPI gained 9.8% over July 2007
  • PPI News Release text and PPI archive
Chart of CPI, Core CPI, PPI and Core PPI

More Reading:

An Examination of the Difference Between the CPI and the PCE Deflator
Abstract: Both the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produce measures of the change in prices that consumers pay on the goods that they consume. While these measures tend to agree in broad historical trends in prices, they sometimes give different pictures of inflation over short horizons.

There are several reasons why these two indexes differ. First, the two indexes use different formulas. For the period in question, the CPI is a Laspeyres index, while the BEA product is a Fisher Ideal index. Second, the two indexes have different underlying concepts. The BLS product measures the prices paid by (urban) consumers, while the BEA product measures the prices of final consumption goods, wherever they are purchased. Finally, even when there is significant agreement across indexes in the broad outlines of coverage, differences in how the detailed components are implemented lead to differences in how prices are measured and differences in the weights attached to specific series.

We quantify the magnitudes of each of these factors. There is no one “smoking gun” that explains the discrepancy between the indexes. Rather, the overall discrepancy is the result of the accumulation of a number of small effects.

Charts courtesy of MartinCapital.com

Monday, August 11, 2008

NanoViricides Reports HIVCide-I May Be Functional Cure for HIV/AIDS

Today NanoViricides Inc. (more NNVC Charts) reported that HIVCide-I was significantly superior to the Current Anti-HIV Three Drug Cocktail currently used to treat HIV/AIDS. HIVCide-I may be a "functional cure cure for HIV/AIDS."

NanoViricides Inc has a market capitalization (at $1.33) of $158 million assuming 119 million shares outstanding.

My dream is a big American drug company like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE) or Merck (MRK) buys NNVC for maybe $5 billion. I would even be happy to have the technology leave the US if a big foreign company like Bayer, GlazoSmithKline (GSK), Novartis (NVS), Sanofi-Aventis (SAN), Hoffmann–La Roche (SWX Europe: ROG) or AstraZeneca (AZN) paid more.

Press Release from NanoViricides, Inc.
NanoViricides, Inc. Reports that HIVCide-I Was Significantly Superior to the Current Anti-HIV Three Drug Cocktail Standard

The Novel Mechanism of Action of HIVCide-I Defines a New Class of Anti-HIV Drugs

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB), (the “Company”) said that additional biological tests and data analysis have shown that animals treated with its lead anti-HIV drug candidate, HIVCide™-I, demonstrated a substantially greater reduction in viral load -- number of infectious virus particles per milliliter of blood -- when compared to the animals given the anti-HIV “combo cocktail” in a preliminary animal study. An important objective of anti-HIV treatment is to minimize the viral load.

These new data expand on the findings previously reported and are consistent with earlier results. The Company has previously reported that HIVCide-I was substantially superior to the combo therapy in improvement of survival time, as well as in reducing the body weight loss, in this preliminary animal study.

We now know that HIVCide-I was clearly superior to the triple drug combo cocktail in all parameters we observed,” said Anil R. Diwan, PhD, President of the Company, adding, “The novel mechanism of action of HIVCide-I defines a new class of anti-HIV drugs. This enables that it can be combined with the existing cocktail. In such a combination, a much greater level of effectiveness could be achieved compared to what is possible today.”

If our preliminary results can be duplicated in humans, it is quite possible that HIVCide-I, either alone or in combination with the current combo cocktail, may provide a ‘functional cure’ for HIV/AIDS,” said Eugene Seymour, MD, MPH, CEO of the Company.

Anthony S. Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH, recently described “functional cure” as a state short of true HIV cure that allows a patient to live a life practically free of HIV following prolonged treatment, although the infection may still be present in a latent fashion. True cure (complete freedom from HIV) may be much more difficult to achieve than functional cure because the virus hides in immune cells that make up “latent reservoirs” (http://www.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/conditions/08/05/ fauci.hiv.column/index.html).

The Company is now in discussions with renowned HIV scientists as to the nature of the additional experiments needed to develop the nanoviricide drug candidate for FDA approval.

These Bio-Safety Level 3 studies employing the well known SCID-hu Thy/Liv HIV mouse model were supervised by Dr. Krishna Menon, PhD, VMD, MRCS, a world-renowned authority in preclinical and toxicological studies of innovative therapeutics.

About NanoViricides:

NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide™ class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H5N1 bird flu, seasonal influenza, HIV, EKC (epidemic kerato-conjunctivitis or severe pink eye disease), hepatitis C, rabies, dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.

This press release contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company's current expectation regarding future events. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Actual events could differ materially and substantially from those projected herein and depend on a number of factors. Certain statements in this release, and other written or oral statements made by NanoViricides, Inc. are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of the company to be different from those expressed or implied including the success of the Company's research and development efforts, the availability of adequate financing, the successful and timely completion of clinical studies and the uncertainties related to the regulatory process, described in the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis” section of the Company’s Form 10-KSB and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Contact:

NanoViricides, Inc.
Amanda Schuon, 310-550-7200
info@nanoviricides.com

Source: NanoViricides, Inc.
Disclaimer. I personally own NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC Charts) and trade it around a core position. I also cover NNVC in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter." My lowest purchase is $0.72 and I may sell those shares at any time to book profits as I trade it to lower my cost basis. For my recommended buy and sell levels for trading, see "Kirk's Investment Newsletter." (Testimonials - Subscribe Now)

Friday, August 08, 2008

T. Boone Pickens Comments on Oil and Yahoo!

Billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens was on CNBC today. Here is a synopsis of his comments about oil (charts) and Yahoo (YHOO). Boone said demand for oil is being killed in the US and Europe so the price of oil has come down.

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image
More Crude Oil price charts

Boone Picken's Energy Plan:

Joe Kernan asked Pickens "you paid for the Swift Boat ads and now the left is using your 'we can't drill our way out of this' statement. How do you feel about that?" Boone said.
  • "You can't drill your way out."
  • "You have to have everything."
  • "Anything American I am for."
  • "I'm for Biofuels. I'm for electric. I'm for hybrids. I'm for OCS.
    (Boone is for drilling on Outer Continental Shelf)
  • I'm for everything American!
  • I'm obsessed with it. I'm going to get the $700 billion figure (the amount Americans send to foreign governments to buy oil) down.
  • ANWR: YES, YES, YES!
    (Boone is for drilling for oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge)
  • "Anything American, I want to do it."
  • See more at www.pickensplan.com

Pickens On the price of oil:

Boone is still long oil but he says his positions are "not as long" as they are before.
  • Sold $85 call
  • Bought $70 Call
  • Sold $60 put
  • I'm staying in those positions
That is not very long. With oil now at $117, buying a $70 call was good but he locked in a $15 gain by selling a call at $85 which left the additional $32 of upside ($117-$85=$32) on the table. If oil stays above $85 before his options expire, his gains from being "long" are the premium from selling the $60 put plus the $15 call spread.

In a past appearance, he said he was short oil at about $100 and I believe he said in another appearance he covered that short around $108 for a loss. Pickens may believe $85 was the high end of oil's trading range without a speculative bubble. This would agree with another noted oil analyst Charlie Maxwell's belief that oil would trade between $50 and $80 and hit $85 by 2010 (see "Charlie Maxwell Interview by Bob Brinker - Sept. 2007").

On Yahoo!:
  • "I got out of Yahoo!"
  • "The management is pathetic." He said if you give them a multiple choice question they get the wrong answer every time.
Pickens wants to work as a general for either McCain or Obama so he can be nonpartisan in helping with the oil crisis. After attending several town hall meetings, Pickens says people in America don't believe they are being told the truth about energy in America.

Pickens said he will be back as a guest in about a month.


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Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Lam Research (LRCX) Insider Buy Alert

Martin B Anstice, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at Lam Reasearch (LRCX charts) just purchased half a million dollars of his company stock. Nobody should know the financial condition of a company better than its CFO. When a CFO buys a significant number of shares, people should pay attention.

Details:
  • $250k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
  • 7.5k = Number of Shares
  • $33.45 = Average Price Paid
  • 2008-08-05 = Purchase Date
  • 2008-08-05 = Filing Date
  • 17:46:53 = SEC Arrival Time Stamp
    (Filing appears on SEC site 30-60 secs later)
Click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com to see full size image

LRCX Information:
  • More LRCX Charts
  • $34.03 = Recent Stock Price (delayed)
  • Market Capitalization at $34.49 per share: $4.30B
  • 999k = Average Daily Volume
  • 1.38 = Beta
  • 7.50% = Short Interest
  • 2.8 = Short Ratio (days)
  • 10-Jul-08 = Date of Above Short Information
SEC Documents:

Click chart courtesy of www.secform4.com to see full size image

Insider buy and sell Table
Transaction
& Date
Insider
Relationship
Shares
Traded
Average
Price
Total
Amount
2008-08-05
Purchase
Anstice Martin B
(CFO)
7,480 $33.45 $250,240
2007-05-23
Sale
Watanabe Seiichi
(Director)
7,000 $51.22 $358,561
2007-05-04
Sale
Gottscho Richard A
(Vice President)
364 $54.93 $19,995
2007-04-20
Sale
INMAN GRANT M
(Director)
30,000 $52.69 $1,580,586
2007-03-08
Sale
BERDAHL ROBERT M
(Director)
2,300 $45.46 $104,564
2006-11-21
Sale
ARSCOTT DAVID G
(Director)
54,000 $55.26 $2,984,110
2006-11-15
Sale
HARRIS JACK RAYMOND
(Director)
36,000 $54.5 $1,961,860
2006-10-16
Sale
HARRIS JACK RAYMOND
(Director)
36,000 $51.68 $1,860,530
2006-05-19
Sale
ARSCOTT DAVID G
(Director)
9,182 $47.28 $434,163
2006-05-05
Sale
BERDAHL ROBERT M
(Director)
2,000 $53.22 $106,434
2006-05-03
Sale
Hariri Abdi
(Vice President)
1,500 $51.88 $77,820
2006-05-04
Sale
INMAN GRANT M
(Director)
36,000 $52.93 $1,905,599

More SEC data at http://www.secform4.com

This purchase is significant because it is the first insider transaction in many years.

Disclaimer: I have been accumulating LRCX in my newsletter (testimonials) and personal portfolios since buying in 1998 at a fraction of the current price. In an attempt to increase my overall return, I plan to continue trading around this core position which has long ago become "house money."

More LRCX Charts

Friday, August 01, 2008

DOW Priced in Ounces of GOLD: A Secular Bear Market!

When measured in ounces of Gold, the DOW has been in a secular bear market since peaking in late 1999.

Click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image
A chart of the DOW Jones Industrial Average (DJIA Charts) priced in gold shows the markets are not as healthy as one might think due to the decline of the US dollar.
  • Back in 1999, it took 45 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA.

  • Today it only takes 12.33 ounces of gold to buy the DOW!
Cutting the Fed Funds target rate from 6.50% in January 2001 to 1.0% in June 2003 may have inflated the US stock market out of its bear market when priced in dollars but it had consequences that we are feeling today.

CDs have been a "safe haven" for those wishing to preserve assets and get a small inflation adjusted return. See "Very Best CD Rates with FDIC" for a list of the best rates and terms. You can get over 5% at Discover Bank if you are willing to tie your money up for five years. You can get a one year CD paying 4.25% at Wachovia Bank.

Cutting interest rates to get the US out of a recession may have worked but the inflation in commodities and devaluation of the US dollar it caused has caused pain for the US consumer. This pain is often blamed on president Bush who took office just as the DOW/Gold ratio broke out of the "symmetrical triangle" pattern, explained below.

More Dow/Gold Charts courtesy of www.golddrivers.com and www.sharelynx.com (Click for full size images)



With the DOW:Gold ratio now at 12.44, it is trading near the bottom of the green zone in the second chart.

Chart of the Day observed:
"It is also interesting to note that the magnitude of the current bear market (when adjusted for inflation) is approximately 60% of what occurred during the dot-com bust of 1999 to 2003."
Gold:Oil Ratio:

This last chart of the Gold/Oil ratio shows how many barrels of oil an ounce of gold will buy.

Both are international commodities. This ratio tends to cancel out the US dollar as both gold and oil are priced in US Dollars.


More on "Symetrical Triangle" chart patterns:
The Bible for technical analysis, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, by Robert Edwards and John Magee, says about 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. This book makes a great Father's Day Gift!

The "return to the apex" of the Gold/DOW ratio in late 2001, early 2002 confirmed the technical breakdown of this chart pattern.

For more information, read chapter eight "Important Reversal Patterns - The Triangles."

Kirk's Investment Newsletter
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To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!
  • Since 1/1/1999 through 7/31/08 my "explore" portfolio is up 180% while the S&P500 is only up 19% and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is only up 62%
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Click the flag pictures to see



Major World Market Graphs At A Glance: Daily 5 Days 1 Yr

CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Final Results

How did you do in CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge? The contest ran for 10 weeks from May 12, 2008 to July 18, 2008. Contestants started with a million dollars in play money and they could earn "bonus bucks" by answering trivia questions which could be found at CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia Answers.

My best performing portfolio, Core Conservative 1, was in the top 0.4%

My worst performing portfolio, Newsletter Explore 1, was in the top 0.8%


This chart shows the overall market did not do so well:

Click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

Here is the total list of all five of my portfolios:

Game
Rank
NameTotal Value*Gain/Loss
6274Explore 1$1,505,106.14505,106 (+50.5%)
4525Explore 2$1,541,633.08541,633 (+54.2%)
3230Explore 3$1,581,312.32581,312 (+58.1%)
3147Conservative$1,584,879.41584,879 (+58.5%)
3470Momentum $1,572,000.00572,000 (+57.2%)

* Value as of 7/18/08 at 4pm EST.


My successful strategy was to remain conservative in the bear market (200 day moving average is resistance rather than support in bear markets) by keeping a large cash position then buying the big dips and answer the daily trivia (answers here) questions. I was too busy to actively trade it so I did not "sell the pops." In my newsletter, I "buy the dips" then "sell the pops" to lock in quick profits on shares I trade around core positions. This strategy has worked out well for me this year as I am ahead of the market by about 8% YTD.

Kirk's Investment Newsletter
Click for a FREE SAMPLE issue
(should open an email window)
Corvette driving into mailbox

To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!
  • Since 1/1/1999 through 7/31/08 my "explore" portfolio is up 180% while the S&P500 is only up 19% and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is only up 62%
    .
  • Subscribe TODAY and get the August 2008 issue for FREE!

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