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Friday, October 16, 2009

Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy: 2009 STS Signals

Today, October 16, is the average best day to enter the stock market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." Sy Harding applies his own special twist to the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy" which he calls his "Seasonal Timing Strategy" or STS for short.

This system has worked well in past years, but followers this year missed a gain of 29.9% by being in low yielding cash. One can only hope they were not short the market!
For more, see Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy
Harding applies the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or MACD, to the S&P500 after the average best time to enter the market, October 16, following the "sell in May and Go away" strategy. According to Harding, if a rally is underway and the MACD is positive, then STS gives a "Buy Signal" to enter the market on October 16th.

The MACD is positive so followers of Sy Harding should have bought at the open of 1,094.67 today.

Click image to view full sized

Harding writes:
The idea is that if a rally is underway when the October 16 calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, as indicated by the MACD indicator, we will enter at that time. However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway, it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the best average calendar entry date has arrived. Instead, our Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives its next buy signal, indicating that the decline has ended.
Sy Harding will use the same indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market when the MACD gives a sell signal any time after April 20.

2008 signals (S&P500)
  • Sell onMay 9 at 1395
  • Buy on October 29 at 939.51
2009 Signals (S&P500)
  • Sell on April 23 at 842.62
  • Buy on October 16 at 1,094.67
    (up 252.05 points or up 29.9%)
For more, see
Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., DeLand, FL, publisher of The Street Smart Report. This article is my "interpretation" of public information posted by Sy Harding. Harding may have changed his formulas and not written about it while keeping the old info on his web site which you would only know for sure by subscribing to his service.

Other key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis include:

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 154% (a double plus another 54% !) vs. the S&P500 UP at tiny 5.8% vs. NASDAQ down 0.9% (All through 10/14/09)
As of October 14, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 30.7% YTD vs. DJIA up 14.1% YTD

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  1. on October 19, 2009 at 10:08am:
    I saw elsewhere on the net where Sy was holding off going in Friday as his STS strategy dictates, for instead doing a 50% buy in today with a stop loss, to be followed by another 50% later when he decides. Looks like his mutual fund investers will be getting back in at the end of trading today as the market races even higher.

    10/21/09: Sy says on his morning blog, "After considerable thought, we decided we should let non-subscribers who have read my books and may be following the STS strategy on their own by watching MACD, know ... recommend that the re-entry signal not be followed just yet."

  2. Sy Harding was caught between a rock and a hard place on October 16th, and was forced to "double down" on what has been a losing bet for his system this year.
    He lost money along with the market early in the year when he was in it. He then lost ground through the Spring and Summer as he bet against the market, even taking some unfortunate short positions along the way. He recognises that the only way he can get out of this hole for the year is to hold out for the long-awaited correction. He says he's afraid of buying prematurely, but his system is guaranteed to be toast this year if he can only match the market from this point on.


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