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Monday, April 27, 2009

Swine Flu Cure: NanoViricides Flu-Cide Drug Designed to Destroy Influenza A Viruses

NanoViricides (more NNVC Charts) surges on swine flu scare. NanoViricides" Flu-Cide" is a cure, not a vaccine. NanoViricides stock did quite well a few years ago during a bird-flu scare when I bought my first shares at $1.01 and took profits at $2.80. See below for long-term chart showing how it surged t0 $3.75 during the 2006 Bird Flu scare. After NNVC came back to Earth after that scare, I started accumulating shares in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Explore" (FREE Sample Issue) and personal portfolios to load up for the next run.


Below is today's press release from NanoViricides:
PRESS RELEASE: NanoViricides, Inc. Says Flu-Cide Drug Designed to Destroy All Influenza A Viruses Including Swine and Bird Flu

Already shown to be effective against diverse influenza subtypes such as H1N1 and different clades of H5N1

On Monday April 27, 2009, 7:00 am EDT

WEST HAVEN, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--NanoViricides, Inc. (OTC BB: NNVC.OB) (the "Company"), announced that it is developing FluCide(™), its flagship anti-influenza drug candidate, to work against all influenza types and subtypes. FluCide has been shown to be effective against both common influenza subtype H1N1, as well as two different variants of bird flu subtype H5N1.

The Company has previously announced excellent results in both animal studies and cell culture studies against widely different influenza subtypes and strains. If these results are confirmed in further animal and human studies, then FluCide would likely be considered the best ever drug effective against all influenzas. The Company is communicating its capabilities to various agencies involved in the current epidemic response.

The current swine flu outbreak is significant in that the H1N1 virus causing it is novel (http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/apr2109swine.html). The US Department of Homeland Security has declared a Swine Flu Emergency yesterday. The WHO has said that the outbreak is an emergency of international concern (http://www.upi.com/Health_News/2009/04/26/DHS-declares-swine-flu-emergency/UPI-53711240725694/). The pig is known to be a transitional species for influenza viruses. That means re-assortment (i.e. mixing) of genes from bird flu, human flu, and swine flu viruses can take place in pigs. This can lead to more lethal, drug resistant novel strains to emerge from different existing ones.

"Nanoviricides(™) have clear advantages over antibodies and vaccines as antiviral strategies," said Dr. Diwan, President of NanoViricides. Antibodies are relatively specific to a particular virus strain or subtype. It is well known that HIV and influenza viruses among many others, quickly escape antibodies. Vaccines depend upon the development of antibodies by the host, and thus, cannot protect efficiently against those viruses which are continually changing their character, such as the influenza virus. Influenza vaccines in particular have to be developed with the strain that is expected to infect in the next year’s cycle. It is well known that this is not a failure-proof strategy for epidemic-causing strains that are novel.

About NanoViricides:

NanoViricides, Inc. (www.nanoviricides.com) is a development stage company that is creating special purpose nanomaterials for viral therapy. The Company's novel nanoviricide™ class of drug candidates are designed to specifically attack enveloped virus particles and to dismantle them. The Company is developing drugs against a number of viral diseases including H5N1 bird flu, seasonal Influenza, HIV, EKC, Hepatitis C, Rabies, Dengue fever, and Ebola virus, among others.

This press release contains forward-looking statements .... more here

Contact:

NanoViricides, Inc.
Amanda Schuon, 310-550-7200
info@nanoviricides.com




For commentary and my current outlook for NNVC, read "Kirk's Investment Newsletter"

Disclaimer: I own NNVC in my personal and newsletter accounts with the last shares bought at 80¢. I have targets to take profits on these in the newsletter and my personal account should my price objective be reached. I will not announce this ahead of time here.


NNVC PRICES

DateClose
$
Volume
24-Apr-090.80206,600
23-Apr-090.6826,900
22-Apr-090.7086,600
21-Apr-090.73240,500
20-Apr-090.6040,300
17-Apr-090.6059,400
16-Apr-090.6021,500




Saturday, April 25, 2009

Is This Bull Run For Real?

The April 27, 2009 cover story for Barron's Magazine asked "Is This Bull Run For Real? "
Yes, say portfolio managers in our "Big Money Poll." They expect the DOW to be up 7% by year and and 17% by the middle of next year. Among their favorite stocks: GE (GE Charts), Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA Charts), Apple (AAPL Charts) and Wells Fargo.
This issue of Barron's Magazine was delivered to my driveway on Saturday morning, April 25. Now you can save over 40% with this special offer.

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For 85 years, Barron's Magazine has been the source that America's business and financial leaders turn to every week for authoritative market analyses and insights on companies, industries, sectors, the economy and financial markets in the U.S. and around the world. Each issue provides subscribers with a unique backwards recap and a forward-looking perspective on trading and the economy that allows self-reliant readers to anticipate market events rather than be overtaken by them, which is now more important than ever. Quite simply, Barron's readers "See What Others Don't." Subscribe Now

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Sunday, April 19, 2009

How Much Did Google Pay For YouTube Video and When?

In November 2006, Google (GOOG Charts) bought privately held YouTube for $1.65 billion in stock. (Details below the charts of Google stock).

Word is out that Google will retire "AdSense video units" at the end of April because
"we've found that it hasn't been performing as well as we had hoped, so we've decided to focus our efforts on other opportunities to help publishers monetize their sites"
That is code for "we have yet to figure out how to make money with our $1.65B investment in YouTube. We should have bought US Treasury notes with the money."

For commentary and my current outlook for GOOG, read "Kirk's Investment Newsletter"


From Google Closes Acquisition of YouTube

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., November 13, 2006 – Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) announced today that it has closed its acquisition of YouTube, the consumer media company for people to watch and share original videos. In connection with the acquisition Google issued an aggregate of 3,217,560 shares, and restricted stock units, options and a warrant exercisable for or convertible into an aggregate of 442,210 shares, of Google's Class A common stock. The number of shares of Class A common stock issued and issuable by Google was calculated by dividing $1.65 billion less certain amounts (approximately $15 million) funded to YouTube by Google between signing and closing by the average closing price for the 30 trading days ending on November 9, 2006. 12.5% of the equity issued and issuable in the transaction will be subject to escrow for one year to secure certain indemnification obligations.
Disclaimer: I bought Google stock for the first time at $310 per share for my own personal account and "Kirk Lindstrom's Newsletter Explore Portfolio." See this pdf for an example of a recent newsletter buy alert for GE. I may sell or take profits in these shares at any time and will probably only announce it to my newsletter subscribers.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Top 100 Financial Advisors According to Barrons Survey

The April 20, 2009 cover story for Barron's Magazine lists the "Top 100 Financial Advisors." The cover story asks:
With stocks rebounding, the pros in our annual listing share their best ideas for 2009 and beyond. Who made the grade? Who is Number 1?

The 100 top advisors in our latest rankings are rethinking diversification - and finding smarter ways to hedge their bets.

Story begins on page 29.
The top 3 advisors are:
  1. Gregory Vaughn of Morgan Stanley up the road from me in Menlo Park, California with $11.8 billion in total team assets under management takes first place. Vaughn was #5 last year.

  2. J. Dorian McKelvey of Smith Barney, also up the road in Menlo Park, California, has $5 billion in assets under team management gets second place. McKelvey is new to the list this year.

  3. Ira Walker of UBS Financial Services in Red Bank, New Jersey with $5 billion in assets under team management gets third place. Walker is new to the list this year.
The ranking reflects the volume of assets under team management, the revenues generated for the firms from these assets and the quality of the advisors' practices.

The advisor with the most assets under management is Rich Hogan of Merrill Lynch in San Francisco, CA with $31 billion in assets under team management. Hogan was in 40th place and is new to the list this year.

If anyone has last year's list, I'd be interested to know if Bernard Madoff was on it.

This issue of Barron's Magazine was delivered to my driveway on Saturday morning, April 18. Now you can save over 40% with this special offer.

Subscribe To Barron's Magazine

For 85 years, Barron's Magazine has been the source that America's business and financial leaders turn to every week for authoritative market analyses and insights on companies, industries, sectors, the economy and financial markets in the U.S. and around the world. Each issue provides subscribers with a unique backwards recap and a forward-looking perspective on trading and the economy that allows self-reliant readers to anticipate market events rather than be overtaken by them, which is now more important than ever. Quite simply, Barron's readers "See What Others Don't." Subscribe Now

Click Here For The Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal

=> Print & Online Bundle - Save over 75%

=> Print Subscription - Save over 80%

=> Online Subscription - Save over $15

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Best Investment Newsletter - Doubled Your Money in a Down Market!

Did your current investment newsletter tell you to raise cash by taking profits near the market top in 2007?

Mine did! I took profits to increase the cash position of my most aggressive "explore portfolio" to 30%.
Did your current investment newsletter tell you to use cash raised when the markets were near their highs to buy a blue chip DOW stock when the markets were at their lowest levels in 13 years?

Mine did! When the markets made a 13 year low, I had cash in the portfolio and told my subscribers to use some of it to buy some General Electric (GE Charts) shares at $6.76.
Click to view full size GE chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

Doubled Money in a Down Market!
Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 102% (over a double!) vs. the S&P500 DOWN 17% vs. NASDAQ down 24% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 30% (All through 4/16/09) (More Info)

HURRY! Subscribe NOW and get the April 2009 Issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" for FREE! !

Did your current investment newsletter tell you to use cash raised from when the markets were near their highs to buy a speculative, very high growth telecom growth stock when the markets were at their lowest levels in 13 years and that telecom stock was making an all time low?

Mine did! I had cash in the portfolio and told my subscribers to use it to buy some some Finisar (FNSR Charts) shares at $0.24. Today at 43¢, Finisar is up 79%!
Click to view full size chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 102% (over a double!) vs. the S&P500 DOWN 17% vs. NASDAQ down 24% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 30% (All through 4/16/09)

HURRY! Subscribe NOW and get the April 2009 Issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" for FREE! !

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

S&P500 Earnings Estimates for 2009 and 2010

The S&P 500 as-reported earnings are down over 60% over the past 17 months. This is the largest decline of GAAP or “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” earnings on record going back to 1936. In fact, earnings are currently lower than they were back in the mid-1960s.

Every month I update the "Fed Model" in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter." The “Fed Model" refers to a simple model the Federal Reserve uses which compares the earnings yield of the S&P500 with the 10-year Treasury bond. The model says the stock market is over valued if the earnings yield (defined as the total earnings of the S&P500 divided by its price) is lower than the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds, currently yielding 2.81%. (See US Treasury Rates at a Glance)

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

As of December 31, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 33.5% YTD vs. DJIA up 18.8% YTD

Below are excerpts from page 6 of the April 2009 issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" when the S&P500 (S&P500 charts at a glance) was at 788.91.
Operating earnings are what companies say they would have earned from “normal operations.” GAAP earnings include options expensing, law suit settlements and other write offs such as the special charges companies take for restructuring or sub prime defaults at the major banks. I like to follow BOTH because some companies make a habit of writing off mistakes and lawsuit settlements as a regular part of their business to make their operating earnings look better.

2009 Operating EPS (Top Down) = $49.02
Year over Year Dollar Growth = ($0.47)
Year over Year Percent Growth = NA
PE Ratio = 16.1
Earnings Yield 6.2%

2010 Operating EPS (Top Down) = $48.44
Year over Year Dollar Growth = $6.95
Year over Year Percent Growth = 14.2%
PE Ratio = 16.2
Earnings Yield =6.2%

2009 as reported GAAP EPS (top down) = $34.74
Year over Year Dollar Growth = $19.65
Year over Year Percent Growth = 130.2%
PE Ratio = 22.7
Earnings Yield =4.4%

2010 As reported GAAP EPS (top Down) = $41.49
Year over Year Dollar Growth = $6.75
Year over Year Percent Growth = 19.4%
PE Ratio = 19.0
Earnings Yield = 5.3%

With 99% reported, 2008 GAAP and operating earnings were only $15.09 and $49.49, respectively. With recent cuts in dividends, especially in the financials, the S&P500 dividend yield is 2.75% at $787 compared to 3.16% last month at $770. In Nov. 2008, the S&P500 dividend yield was 3.19% at 850! I expect dividends to go up (return) when the economy recovers.
This chart, courtesy of Chartoftheday.com, shows inflation adjusted GAAP (real) earnings going back to 1936.
With the massive write-offs at companies like AIG, C, BofA, etc., Q4, 2008 came in with negative earnings! This level of negative write-downs cannot continue forever as the loser investment banks will eventually run out of market cap left to write-off.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

As of December 31, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 33.5% YTD vs. DJIA up 18.8% YTD


More information:

Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Jim Rogers: Rally Will Fail, Likes Agriculture and Comments on Financial Bailout

In this video interview with Maria Bartiromo, Jimmy Rogers comments on the bailout of Wall Street and his belief that we made a bottom but it is not the final bottom.

He says 300 Million Americans are keeping just a few rich.
"We had automobile companies, airlines, retailers going bankrupt for hundreds of years. We still have cars, we still have planes, we still have shops. What do you expect them to say? Of course they say there is systemic risk, then they panic Washington and say 'give us more money'. And they keep their Lamborghinis and their houses.

That is not the way is supposed to work. 300 million Americans are propping up a few guys so that they can keep their Lamborghini's. Its outrageous economics and morality....."
Jim Rogers said the global capital markets haven’t reached “the final bottom” yet which echos the sentiment of fellow bearish investors Marc Faber and George Soros, who predicted earlier this week that the stock-market rally will falter.

Here is a video of Jim Rogers saying he is only buying more commodities and agriculture. He says commodities have done the best with some up 20 or 25%. (I guess he missed my buy of FNSR at 24¢ that more than doubled.)
========================================================================================
During the interview
DJIA = 7690 & S&P500 = 806.31
============================================
Jim expects inflation since banks are printing money all over the World which "always ends up in higher prices."

Jim wants to see the governments let the financials go bankrupt and not throw good money after bad money.

Jim says the ONLY stocks he has bought in the past year are in China and he bought last year but he is not buying any today. He thinks America is spending money on "make work" projects that are not the way to go.

Jim thinks farmers (Agriculture products) will be the "most successful sector" for the next 20 or 30 years. He thinks power will shift from financials to people who actually make things. He told Maria to get herself a tractor. If everyone did that, it would be good for Deere and Caterpillar.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

HURRY! Subscribe NOW and get the April 2009 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)
FREE SAMPLE


Friday, April 03, 2009

Upturn in ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead

Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute, or ECRI an independent forecasting group based in New York, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) moved hither and its growth rate rose to a 23-week high signaling a turn in the business cycle is on their radar.

The WLI and its growth rate are designed to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and recoveries.)
Today ECRI said its WLI rose to 106.7 for the period ending March 27, 2009. In the prior week WLI was 106.2 and its record low was on March 6, 2009 at 105.3.

The WLI growth rate rose to -22.2%, up from -23.2% last week. Its record low was set on December 5, 2008 at -29.9%.

Click chart courtesy of ECRI for full size image

Commenting on the data, Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI said
"With WLI growth rising to a 23-week high, an upturn in the U.S. growth rate cycle is now in clear sight."

The weekly index rose due to higher stock prices and stronger housing activity, and was partly offset by higher interest rates and claims for state jobless benefits.
My chart of WLI vs WLI growth and the S&P500 (on page 5 of the April issue of Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter) shows WLI bottomed March 6th, 2009, within days of the most recent stock market bottom when the S&P500 hit 676.


This chart courtesy of chartoftheday shows the duration of all US recessions since 1900.

The current recession, now entering its 16th month, is already longer than average and equal to the longest recessions (1973 & 1981) since the Great Depression.

More ECRI Articles:
Discuss the data with Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in our facebook forum "ECRI - Economic Cycle Research Institute." If you are not already a member, then you may need to request invitation to "Investing for the Long Term" on Facebook.

Post & Read Comments on this Article

Doubled Money in a Down Market!

Since 12/31/98
"Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 106% (over a double!) vs. the S&P500 DOWN 11.3% vs. NASDAQ down 16.3% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 27.7% (All through 6/30/09) (More Info)

As of June 30, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 6.2% YTD vs. DJIA down 3.8% vs S&P500 up 3.2% YTD
(More Info & FREE Sample Issue)

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(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)


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Thursday, April 02, 2009

Bankrupptcy Filing Takes Thornburg Mortgage from $266.70 to Zero; 1993-2009 THMR Price Graph

Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (THMR.pk), a Santa Fe, New Mexico-based mortgage lender, announced that it will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Thornburg specialized in making jumbo loans (mortgages larger than $417,000) to borrowers with good credit.

This chart of Thornburg's stock price between 1993-2009 shows it peaked at $266.70 in mid 2007.

Click Thornburg price chart to see full sized image

Bloomberg reported:
In a November regulatory filing, Thornburg said it lost $2.75 billion, or $85.71 per share, in the first nine months of 2008. It ended September with $25.4 billion of adjustable-rate mortgage assets on its balance sheet.
Yahoo! currently shows 47.53 million shares outstanding so if no new shares were issued during the decline, then the peak market cap was $12.7 billion!

Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Ayn Rand April Fools Thought for the Day

This quote from Ayn Rand seems highly appropriate in this day and age. Our stock markets, even after a great March, remain down by nearly half their peak levels due in large part to what Ayn Rand warns against.
"When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion -- when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed."
Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged (1957)



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