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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data & Graph

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data and Chart

One of the oldest weekly sentiment indicators is the “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS. A chart of the Investors’ Intelligence Survey (IIS) “Bulls over Bulls plus Bears” versus the market is a key sentiment tool for stock market technical analysis. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W. Cohen and has been published every week ever since. Cohen was surprised to find out that the newsletter writers, just like average investors and speculators, were usually wrong at major turning points!  Cohen found the best time to go long the stock markets was not when the most advisers were bullish, but when they were bearish! Cohen’s IIS survey turned out to be a wonderful contrarian indicator!

Data for Aug. 25, 2010:   
  • Bulls = 33.3%
  • Bears=31.2%
Chart of Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) vs. S&P500 for 8/25/10

click for full size graph
More about
Raw Data
Date Published Percent Bullish Percent Bearish
08/25 33.3 31.2
08/18 36.7 31.1
08/11 41.7 27.5
08/04 38.9 33.3
07/28 38.2 34.9
07/21 35.6 35.6
07/14 32.6 34.8
07/07 37 34.8
06/30 41.1 33.3
06/23 41.1 31.1
06/16 37 32.6
06/09 38.5 31.9
06/02 39.8 28.4
05/26 39.3 29.2
05/19 43.8 24.7
05/12 47.2 24.7
05/05 56 18.7
04/28 54 18
04/21 53.3 17.4
04/14 51.1 18.9

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 152% (a double plus another 52%!!) vs. the SandP500 UP a tiny 5.7% vs. NASDAQ Comp  down 0.6%!   (All through 8/22/10)  More Info
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