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Thursday, April 29, 2010

NNVC NanoViricides: Is The Correction Over?

Highly volatile stocks like NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC Charts) often retrace 50% of their moves after a large gain. Savvy traders who missed getting shares near the bottom will look for these periods of consolidation to buy shares.   

You can see from the chart below that NNVC recently made a "V-Bottom" at the 50% point and now may be poised to go higher.  Since buying more at $0.93, I have not sold any shares and was glad to see the 50% level hold as support.  

click chart for full size image

In 2009 I bought shares as low as 45¢ then shortly after publishing my article "NanoViricides Presentation Summary" the stock made a huge run so I took some profits at nearly a triple to $1.20 early this year.  I repurchased those shares weeks later at $0.93.  Overall, my average price per shares is $0.81 and I have not felt the urge to risk losing some shares to try and lower my cost basis further.
Nanoviricides Buy/Sell History 

Date Action Shares Price
$
Amount
$
Running
$ Total
Shares
Held
Avg $/
 share
06/18/08 BUY 1,000 1.64 -1,652 -1,652  1,000 1.66
09/17/08 BUY 1,500 0.80 -1,212 -2,864  2,500 1.15
05/13/09 BUY 1,000 0.56 -  572 -3,436  3,500 0.98
10/23/09 BUY 1,000 0.45 -  462 -3,898  4,500 0.87
1/13/10 SELL 1,000 1.20 -$1,188 -2,710  3,500 0.77
02/11/10 BUY 1,000 0.93 -  940 -3,650  4,500 0.81


NanoViricides Inc has a shelf registration to issue more shares which will dilute shareholders but it could come with great news on how they will spend the money. 

Disclosure: I own and trade NNVC in my personal and newsletter accounts with shares purchased as for as little as 46¢ for overall profits in my position as of this writing.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/25/10, the explore portfolio was
up 11.1% YTD

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(or ask for July if it is July via email, but why wait?)

AAII Bulls Minus Bears vs DJIA Survey Data and Graph for 4/29/2010

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months . AAII is the "American Association of Individual Investors." For the survey, Individual members of the AAII are polled on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period. The AAII reports the weekly results at http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/.
As of 04/28/2010, the AAII members are:
  • Bullish: 41.36%
  • Neutral: 30.00%
  • Bearish: 28.64%
The 52 wk MA of Weekly sentiment is about as low as it was in 1994 before the market put on a great 5 year advance. Will this repeat? Post your answer in the comments section below.

This chart shows the 52-week moving average of the AAII bull/bear index (American Association of Individual Investors). 52 weeks removes seasonality from the number and gives startling results.
 Click chart for full size image

Charts of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Bulls minus Bears Index versus the market are key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis.  Contrarian theory states the time to buy is when fear and pessimism are at a maximum since this usually occurs near market bottoms.

More Information
Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/25/10, the explore portfolio was
up 11.1% YTD

Subscribe NOW and get the April 2010 Issue for FREE!
 

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Elaine Garzarelli Bullish - New S&P500 Target

Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Research, remains Bullish according to Dan Dorfman in his article "It's Still a Go-Go Market!" She remains bullish but sentiment suggests we could have a correction at any time.
Her overall view, as exemplified in a commentary she just fired off to clients: it's still a go-go market.
The chart below shows the S&P500 is currently at 1208.64 so reaching Elaine Garzarelli's target of 1315 would be a gain of 8.8%.

Sentiment is too bullish so a 4 to 7% correction now would not surprise her:
One of her indicators, though, a contrary indicator that focuses on sentiment, is flashing a distress signal. In brief, the number of bullish investment advisers has been rising steadily, a development that often precedes a market sell-off). Accordingly, Garzarelli says she wouldn't be surprised to see a consolidation or a normal 4% to 7% correction at any point. But such a correction, she observes, would be an opportunity for investors to add to their stock positions.
This contrary sentiment indicator she is talking about the Investors' Intelligence Bull Bear Survey. I track this in my newsletter and used it to buy equities in February when the market made its last correction then took some good profits last week when the sentiment indicator flashed "take profits." If the market pulls back enough to hit some of my newsletter "auto buy" levels then we will buy the shares back. My "Auto Buy Levels" are prices for limit orders my subscribers can set ahead of time with our broker so they execute during the day if price targets are reached.

Garzarelli's 2010 Targets - S&P500 to reach 1315
For all of 2010, Garzarelli expects a 28% increase in S&P 500 operating earnings, spurred by easy comparisons, company cost-cutting, recovering economies around the globe, low interest rates and low unit labor costs.

Her GDP outlook calls for 4% growth this year, which she thinks should enable the S&P 500 to realize its fair value of 1315 before year end. Such a showing would represent about an 8% gain from the index's current level of around 1217.
On Interest Rates
While fears of rising interest rates are mounting on Wall Street, Garzarelli pooh-poohs such concerns. She reckons that financial nervousness and lofty unemployment will likely keep the Federal Funds rate--now in a range of zero to 0.25%--stable at least till the summer.
Summer is only two months away.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/25/10, the explore portfolio was up 11.1% YTD

Subscribe NOW and get the April 2010 Issue for FREE! !

S&P500 Chart
click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

More S&P500 Charts

Kirk's Two Investment Letters




Monday, April 26, 2010

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows Report

AMG Weekly Fund Flows Data from http://www.amgdata.com

Annual data shown in table 1 below.

Weekly 04/21/2010
  • Equity Fund Inflows $2.2 Bil
  • Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $3.6 Bil
  • xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $2.1 Bil; Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $3.3 Bil
ExETFs—For the week ended 4/21/2010 All Equity funds report net inflows totaling $2.097 billion as Domestic Equity funds report net inflows of $1.459 billion and Non-Domestic Equity funds report net inflows of $0.638 billion... The rate of inflows to Non-Domestic funds is $1.348 billion/week, as measured over four weeks... ExETFs—Emerging Markets Debt funds report net inflows of $0.370 billion… Net inflows are reported for All Taxable Bond funds ($3.608 billion), bringing the rate of inflows of the $2.290-trillion sector to $7.663 billion/week... Net inflows are reported to Corporate Investment Grade funds totaling $0.883 billion... Net inflows are reported to Flexible Funds totaling $1.044 billion... International & Global Debt funds have reported inflows (+$1.372 billion) for the fifty-seventh consecutive week... Money Market funds report net outflows totaling $33.416 billion... ExETFs—Municipal Bond funds report net inflows of $0.130 billion…

Table 1
AMG Fund Flows
for Full Year - $B
---------------
Equity Tax Bond MM Fund
Fund Flows for 2003
40.8 40.7 NC
Fund Flows for 2004
95.0 11.3 (64.3)
Fund Flows for 2005
71.9 9.3 89.0
Fund Flows for 2006
52.5 29.9 308.3
Fund Flows for 2007
111.3 68.8 569.5
Fund Flows for 2008
3.5 (3.3) 608.0
Fund Flows for 2009
6.0 172.0 (280.2)
Fund Flows for 2010
(4.3) 62.3 (355.1)
NC = Data Not Compiled

More info:

The Lipper FMI Fund Flows Database
According to amgdata.com: The Lipper FMI Fund Flow Database is the most accurate, timely, and comprehensive proxy for investor sentiment. Weekly and monthly investor flows are aggregated in 19000 open-end mutual fund share classes with an $11 Trillion asset base that is sectored in datasets by investment objective as defined in the prospectus.
Affiliated Managers Group Inc.
(AMG) is an asset management company with equity investments in a diverse group of boutique investment management firms.
Equity, Bond and Money Market Fund Flows as reported by AMG/Lipper

Monday, April 19, 2010

STS Unfavorable (Sell in May) Season Starts Tomorrow - April 20

According to Sy Harding, author of Seasonal Timing Strategy™ (STS), "Riding the Bear" and "The Street Smart Report," now is the time to watch the MACD indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." I

If the market closes down today, as it was when I made this chart, then it could signal an "STS Sell" for tomorrow.

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

Harding applies the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or MACD, to the S&P500 after the average best time to leave the market, April 20, following the "sell in May and Go away" strategy. Likewise, around the best days on average to enter the market, October 16, Harding's STS looks for positive MACD to enter the market again.

Currently the MACD is positive with the MACD signal line above its EMA(9) line. You can watch the chart here to see when this signal goes negative.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/15/10, the explore portfolio is up 11% YTD
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Subscribe NOW and get the April 2010 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Best CD Rates With FDIC Insurance - Survey of Highest APY rates

The best CD rate 1 year or less is 1.55% at Aurora Bank.

You can often get higher than advertised rates at your local branch if you do your homework. Print out the "Highest CD Rate Survey" and bring it in with you. Also print out some of the advertisements showing rates advertised on your bank's competing web sites so you have proof. (Make sure the date shows on your printout so they know it is current.) Bring in the survey and ask them to beat or at least meet the best advertised rate. They often will do this to keep your business or to keep you walking out the door.

The highest CD rate of any term is 3.60% at Discover Bank for a term of 10 years.

Here is the table with more rates and terms:

Highest CD Rates Survey
UST = US Treasury Bond
Term
Highest
Rate (APY)
Where?
(Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
6 Month CD
1.28%
Aurora Bank
1 Year CD
1.55%
Nova Bank & Aurora Bank
1 Yr UST
0.43%
US Treasury Rate Quote
18-Mo CD
1.79%
Aurora Bank
2 Year CD
2.05%
TriState Capital Direct
3 Year CD
2.50%
PenFed CU & TriState Capital Direct
4 Year CD
2.92%
Bank of Internet USA
5 Year CD
3.30%
EverBank
5 Yr UST
2.59%
US Treasury Rate Quote
7 Year CD
3.51%
Pentagon Federal CU
10 Yr CD
3.60%
Discover Bank
10 Yr UST
3.86%
US Treasury Rate Quote

If the above text is too small to read, then read it "HERE in a larger font."

Be careful when you go to your bank and ask for their best rate. They will often use that as an excuse to sell you an annuity that sounds good on the surface, but is far more profitable for them due to the higher fees.

Make sure you read the Article: Beware of Annuities


Monday, April 12, 2010

Taxpayer Cost of Financial Bailout

The government's bailout of the US financial system is expected to cost US taxpayers far less than originally expected. Unfortunately, the Obama administration estimate of $89 billion doesn't include the costs to taxpayers from the biggest "mistakes" that could bring the total over $450 billion!

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal cited Treasury Department officials with estimating the total cost of the bailout at $89 billion which is much lower than earlier projections of $250 billion or more.
Just a year ago, the Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget estimated that the overall bailout would cost more than $250 billion. Last month, though, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the rescues will amount to "less than 1%" of gross domestic product. The $89 billion projection is less than the cost of the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1980s and early 1990s, which totaled as much as 3.2% of GDP.
The $89B cost of the bailout includes the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP,) capital injections into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, loan guarantees by the Federal Housing Administration and Federal Reserve moves such as buying mortgage-backed securities and propping up the commercial-paper market. Taxpayers made money on many of the investments in banks such as Citigroup.
Still, of the $245 billion that Treasury invested in U.S. banks, $169 billion has been returned so far, and officials estimate an eventual profit of $8 billion.

As of February, the U.S. government has collected $13.7 billion in dividends, interest and other income, along with $4 billion in warrant proceeds.
The politicians like to blast the bankers on TV to take the heat off the biggest drain on taxpayers, the GSEs (Government Sponsored Entities) known as Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE.) which are responsible for the majority of the taxpayer losses.

The $89B estimate does not include losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are projected to be $370 billion through 2020!!!
According to the CBO, losses related to the investment portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are projected to total $370 billion through 2020, though the figure will fluctuate depending on the health of the housing market. The Treasury's $89 billion estimate for the total bailout cost doesn't incorporate CBO's projected losses at Fannie and Freddie because, for budgeting purposes, the Obama administration technically considers them private entities. Taxpayers are potentially on the hook for losses at Fannie and Freddie.
Adding in the $370 billion projected cost of the bailout at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the current CBO estimate of $89 billion for everything else gives a total cost to taxpayers of the financial bailout of $459 billion!

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/11/10, the explore portfolio is up 7% YTD
FREE SAMPLE

Subscribe NOW and get the April 2010 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)


Friday, April 09, 2010

Market Correction Statistics

How many bears did you hear on TV say they would buy into the market if it corrected by 10%?

click image courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size view

It is no surprise that the recent stock market correction only corrected 9.2% which kept many of them on the sidelines complaining they are still waiting for the market to correct.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 176% (a double plus another 76%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 17% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 4/9/10)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
As of 4/9/10, the explore portfolio was up 7% YTD

Subscribe NOW and get the April 2010 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)

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Friday, April 02, 2010

Homemade Organic Apple Juice

 "An apple a day keeps the doctor away" _source unknown
 
What good is investing in financial assets for the future if you are not around to enjoy the fruits of your sacrifice?  Not only that, but you can save a fortune in health care costs with a healthy diet and exercise.

In our facebook group "Investing for the Long Term" we have a discussion forum called "Healthy Living - Invest in Your Health Too" we are very fortunate to have noted nutrition expert  Dr. James J. (Jay) Kenney, PhD, RD, FACN answer our questions about health and nutrition.

Homemade Organic Apple Juice
Yield: 1 2/3 cups (400 ml)
Ingredients
4 medium to large organic apples
1/4 cup (60 ml) cool water
2 double layers of cheesecloth
Steps:
  1. Place apples and water into the Vitamix container in the order listed.
  2. Secure lid.
  3. Select Variable 1.
  4. Turn machine on and quickly increase speed to Variable 10, then to High.
  5. Blend for 45 seconds, using the tamper to push apples into the blades until pureed.
  6. Transfer puree to a bowl lined with cheesecloth and twist until juice is extracted.
Note: For the best flavor, combine two or more apple varieties.
Health Classification: Diabetic Friendly, Low Fat, Low Sodium, Low Cholesterol, Heart Healthy, Gluten-Free, Vegetarian, Vegan, Raw
Variations:  We find it easier to quarter the apples, remove the skin and seeds with a paring knife, blend as directed and drink the juice directly.
Health Benefits 
Excerpts from Wikipedia:  Research suggests that apples may reduce the risk of colon cancer, prostate cancer and lung cancer. Apples are a rich source of antioxidant compounds.

There is evidence that in vitro (in a controlled environment) apples possess phenolic compounds which may be cancer-protective and demonstrate antioxidant activity. The predominant phenolic phytochemicals in apples are quercetin, epicatechin, and procyanidin B2.

Apple juice concentrate has been found to increase the production of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine in mice, providing a potential mechanism for the "prevention of the decline in cognitive performance that accompanies dietary and genetic deficiencies and aging." Other studies have shown an "alleviat[ion of] oxidative damage and cognitive decline" in mice after the administration of apple juice.
 We like the "Vita-mix Super 5200" blender for its heavy duty motor, solid construction, 7-year warranty and second container for grinding whole grains and beans. Consider getting an extra container to keep in the fridge or have a fresh container while the other is in the dishwasher.

Nutrition Information:

With the FREE standard shipping and risk FREE Trial explained here, there is no excuse to not start investing in your good health today!

IMPRESSIVE Long Term Results


Since 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 390%
vs. the S&P500 UP only 51% vs. NASDAQ UP only 57% (All through 12/31/11)
(More Info, Testimonials & Portfolio Returns)
Q1 2012 Update: Up 11.3% YTD as of 3/31/12
(remember this 2012 performance is with 1/3 in fixed income!)



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