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Saturday, June 11, 2011

What Caused the Housing Bubble & Who Warned About It

This video stands on its own.  Make sure you watch the bit near the end (starting at 8:10) where former president Bill Clinton gives his opinion.

All I can add is I saw many of these people make these statements on TV

Friday, June 03, 2011

ECRI's US-FIG Down Again in May

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI, released its latest readings for its proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauges this morning.  ECRI says the value of their U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) "lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflatinon cycle."  (More about ECRI)
In May, the USFIG fell to 101.0, down from a revised 102.9 in April.    My chart below of CPI vs USFIG vs "expected inflation" for the next decade shows USFIG was down for the second straight month.
Commenting on today's release, ECRI's Co-Founder, Chief Operations Officer and author of "Beating the Business Cycle", Lakshman Achuthan said: "With the USFIG hitting a seven-month low, underlying inflation pressures have clearly begun to recede."

Returns for last 12 years

Below is data I don't see famous investment "gurus" like Jim Cramer or Bob Brinker posting on their web sites. Why not? You would think that if their results were good like mine, then they would post the data by year for all to see rather than just selected data.

My Returns by Year
Click for full size tables
This shows how the "core and explore" portfolios are making new highs.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is
UP 212% vs. the S&P500 UP only 25% vs. NASDAQ UP a only 22% (All through 12/31/10)
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 1.8%

In 2010 YTD my "Explore Portfolio" gained 20.5%!!
vs. the DJIA up 13.8%
(My explore portfolio had 70% in equities and 30% in fixed income so the stocks did very, very well)

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