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Monday, November 07, 2011

ECRI Still Forecasts A Recession

Unimpressed with Current Economic Data, ECRI Still Forecasts A Recession 

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group also know as ECRI, continues to see a US recession in our future.  Even after a large rebound for the stock market with coincident economic data coming in better than expected, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director, is not impressed. (More about ECRI)
Achuthan says economists on the Street are only “now-casting” which is not the proper way to forecast recessions. Lakshman said that on average “it is about six months inside of the recession that people realize there’s a recession”.  ECRI is still forecasting a recession as he sees “contagion among forward looking indicators.” 
"A lot of people are happy with GDP numbers" but "in the past century the vast majority of all recessions have begun in a quarter that showed positive GDP growth."
Watch his full CNBC interview here:
 

Read ECRI's Recession Call at:
I took profits near the highs this year and raised a lot of cash.  Then I put that cash to work near the lows for the year.  Then the market rallied and I sold a good deal of what I bought during the market weakness so I'm ready to do it again yet will profit nicely if the market goes higher.  Here are what some of my subscribers sent me via email recently:
  • Oct 28, 2011:  Steve P: Kirk, just want to say you had a great batch of sell actions last week.  Many of the financial threads I follow were saying a buy is in in their weekend notes.  Yet you were selling.  Good job.
  • 10/27/2011:  Bard P:  YES, I love those newsletters, and will renew by PayPal.  Thanks for all that Mad Money :)
  • 10/24/2011:  Patrick O:  Love your  newsletter...
  • 9/26/11: Barbara H: Yes, another year of your insightful newsletter.  Check is in the mail.
 
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