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Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Elaine Garzarelli Bearish Sentiment Indicators - Buy the Pullback

"A Correction of 4-7% May Be Coming: Live Through It and Buy On the Dip," Says Investment Manager Elaine Garzarelli


NEW YORK, Dec. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- "Our 'Sentiment Indicator' continues to be bearish, so we could see a 4-7% correction in the market," says investment manager Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Capital, Inc. "But we are still in a bull market."

"We can't really predict when we're going to get these 4-7% corrections, but it is more likely with the sentiment indicator the way it is now. There's too much bullishness out there, and that's a contrary indicator: the more bullish the advisors are, the more bearish it is for the stock market, because it means everybody is in there already," she continues.

Dr. Garzarelli's advice on how to ride out a possible correction: "Just live through it, and buy on the dip – to buy an opportunity."

"Add to your positions in cyclical sectors of the economy – which would be technology, industrials, financials, and consumer durables," she advises.

Following is an excerpt from this week's Garzarelli Capital Client Letter:

Sentiment Indicator Continues Bearish
The budget deal, which will help growth next year, has caused concern that it may mean QE tapering could come sooner. The bipartisan deal is to set spending levels for the government for two years. It will partly replace the unpopular spending cuts with other savings and eliminate the threat of another government shutdown. The current stopgap funding measure will run out again January 15th.

The concern over the start date of QE tapering has been moving markets. Positively, inflation expectations are low and that is the major argument against a December tapering. The risk for inflation is more to the downside. The PPI declined -0.1 percent in November, with a modest 0.7 percent year-over-year gain. We do not worry about the tapering as long as consumer and business confidence holds up. Additionally, the proposed budget deal reduces some uncertainty for markets, which is another positive for markets.

Stan Fischer, the former governor of the Bank of Israel is speculated to possibly succeed Janet Yellen as vice-chair of the Fed when she takes over from Bernanke at the end of next month. Fischer has a track record of being aggressive with monetary policy to offset major shocks.

Our Indicators
Our proprietary stock market indicator composite declined to 70.5 percent from 80.0 percent due to the downgrade of the economic cycle research institute (ECRI) weekly index and the Bloomberg Financial Conditions index. A level below 30.0 percent for our composite is bearish.

Our contrarian indicator continues to rise with the number of bullish investment advisors up again and now standing at 58.2 percent, another new high for this year. The continued rise in this indicator signals a correction of 4.0 to 7.0 percent is possible, which we believe would be a good buying opportunity since our overall composite is bullish.

Our monetary indicators, which are worth 24.0 percent of our composite, remain bullish. They include the three month bill rate, interest rate momentum, the yield curve, and money supply. The Fed's easing policies continue to keep these indicators bullish. We do not expect the tapering to significantly alter them.

Corporate cash rose about +12.0 percent in the third quarter. This could lead to better employment and capital expenditures. Our operating earnings forecast for the S&P 500 is 111.00 for next year. Plugging that into our P/E model suggests fair value for the S&P 500 of 1942 (a 9.0 percent gain from current levels). The consensus earnings estimate is 122.40, 10.3 percent higher than our conservative levels.

The Bloomberg U.S. financial conditions index has turned decisively downward. We downgrade this indicator to bearish, removing six points from our composite. This indicator signals the health of the financial industry as higher levels indicate loose financial conditions.

The ECRI weekly index is downgraded to neutral, removing three and half points from our composite. The level declined this week but its growth rate is up 2.8 percent.

Our junk bond yield to 10-year T-bond yield indicator has an inverse relationship with the S&P 500. It continues on a downtrend, therefore we rank it bullish….

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About Elaine Garzarelli
Elaine Garzarelli, President of Garzarelli Capital, Inc., is an economist with a doctorate from Drexel University in economics and statistics. She worked for major institutional brokerage firms for over 15 years while perfecting her market and industry econometric timing models, and was ranked #1 for 11 consecutive years on Institutional Investor's"All-Star" team for Quantitative Analysis and was recently inducted into the Hall of Fame. She started her own companies in 1994, and currently runs the "Sector Analysis" fund.

The Ralph and Elaine Garzarelli scholarship is available at Drexel University for women majoring in economics.

Garzarelli Capital does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report nor does Garzarelli Capital assume any liability for loss of any nature that may result from reliance by any person or institution upon any such information or opinions contained herein. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

For further information, to hear Dr. Garzarelli's recommendations, receive this week's entire Garzarelli Capital Weekly Investment Letter, or to speak with Dr. Garzarelli, please contact Temin and Company at 212-588-8788 or

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