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Sunday, January 12, 2014

Investors Intelligence Sentiment vs S&P500

Investors Intelligence Survey Data of Bulls-Bears vs. Weekly S&P500

The “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS is one of the oldest weekly sentiment indicators used today. Charts of the Investors’ Intelligence Survey (IIS) “Bulls over Bulls plus Bears” versus the market are key tools for stock market technical analysis or sentiment. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W. Cohen and has been published every week ever since.


Sentiment is down a bit from the high set last week.  

Chart of Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey
Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) vs S&P500
Click to view full sized then maximize window to see very large image
Note that high sentiment doesn't always mean a major market decline will occur.  For example, in early 2003 sentiment was at a similar very high level with the S&P500 at 1,000.   Some market pundits said "buy on weakness" or look for a major correction to get back into the market yet my chart shows the market went up over 50% in the next few years without a major (over 15%) pullback. 

Of course, low sentiment is often a good indicator of great times to buy.  For example, in early 2009, the stock market was bottoming at 666 and sentiment had crashed so I was a buyer using cashed I raised near the top (pdf from newsletter) in 2007:
More info at Investors' Intelligence Sentiment Indicator

This table shows my newsletter "Core and Explore Portfolios" from 1998 through the end of 2013



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