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Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Ralph Acampora Market Warning

Today Ralph Acampora, the man who calls himself "The Godfather of Technical Analysis" on his Twitter feed, issued the following market warnings:

@Ralph_Acampora on April 15, 2014 early AM :
  1. At best, the market is now in a wide trading range; at worst, it is creating an intermediate term market top froth with failed rallies.
  2. Rally(s) from current levels will, at some point, encounter serious overhead supply.  That will be the moment of truth.
  3. April 14th witnessed a brisk over-sold rally. Further broad based upside follow through is needed to correct the recent technical damage.
Yesterday Ralph Acampora advised using rallies to lighten positions:
  1. Apr 14: Micro-Cap (IWC) broke a multi-year up trend last week. Use any rally(s) to lighten-up positions.
  2. Apr 14: S&P Retail (XRT) made a series of lower highs since Nov. 2013 and last week it broke below near-term support. Avoid.
  3. Apr 14: US Broker/Dealers (IAI) broke below its 2/4/14 low and a multi-year uptrend. This has intermediate-term negative implications.
And last week was more of the same after the DOW failed to confirm the bull market rally (via DOW Theory) with a new closing high.
  • Apr 12: The SOX Index made a lower low. Use any near-term rally(s) as an opportunity to lighten-up positions.
  • Apr 11: Many near-term support levels are breaking like 'egg shells'. Watch the Feb.5th lows; if broken it would be intermediate-term problematic.
  • Apr 10: The market suffered another failed rally this week. Unfortunately, this allowed the sellers another opportunity to liquidate.

  • Apr 5: New lower lows - now in 1 month down trends: NASDAQ Comp; QQQ and Micro-Cap (IWC).
  • Apr 5: Dow Theory: DJIA failed to re-confirm the new closing highs in the DJTA. Its secondary correction phase is still in force.
  • Apr 5: Ouch! The DJIA experienced another failed rally this week. Not a good sign. It is the only major index not to make a new 2014 closing high
  • Apr 3: S&P Sector: Technology (XLK) made a new high - much of this strength is due to older tech stocks like: MSFT, CSCO and INTC.
  • Apr 3: Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrial average closed 3.66 points away from its all time closing high of 16,576.66 made on 12/32/2013.
  • Apr 2: S&P Sector: Telecommunications (IYZ) leaped to a new high; it is now at its best reading since 1/08. This is the start of new leadership.
  • Apr 2: Dow Theory: When the DJ Industrial makes its new closing high, it will reconfirm the primary bull market.
  • Apr 2: Yesterday the DJ Transportation average made a new high; now, the DJ Industrial average is only 44.05 points from its closing high.

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