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Friday, November 04, 2016

Citigroup Panic-Euphoria Model

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model is Citi's Measure of Investor Sentiment For Stocks. 

Chart of Citigroup's Panic/ Euphoria Model  vs SPY:
Click for full size image
"The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment.  It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market.  Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 70% probability of stock prices being lower one year later.”   Source: Citigroup's Panic - Euphoria Model 
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
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Note:  Some articles I've found suggest  Citigroup's Panic/ Euphoria Model completely missed the financial collapse in 2008 so the model was "reformulated."  My guess is it is like most sentiment models in that its more useful to look at rate and direction of levels rather than absolute levels.

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