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Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Market Decline Has Fear & Greed Index Showing Fear

CNN's "Fear & Greed Index" has fallen into the "Fear Zone" with the markets decline from their March 1 record closing highs.
(Click to view images)

Today Investors are skittish as:

Click for full size image
Click for full size image
My Core and Explore Performance vs Warren Buffett's BRKA:
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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March 2017 Issue for FREE!

Wednesday, March 08, 2017

CIA Hack to Get Window 8 For Free

As a Microsoft (MSFT)shareholder, I hope the company demands a full accounting of the CIA and NSA to make sure every workstation that has Windows software paid for the license.  
From a WikiLeaks tweet yesterday: 
"Don't want to pay for Wndows? The CIA's hackers have a pirate guide to skip product key activation"
"The default MDSN Windows 8 installation requires Product Key Activation in order to setup.  The following steps are useful in editing the MSDN iso to enable the Skip button during the install."
Hell, over 30 years ago when I was at HP and it was easy to get and install illegal, pirated software, having it on a work computer without the proper license was something that would get you fired and walked out the door.  
It is "interesting" as Mr. Spock would say that there is no warning on this hacked document that doing this is illegal.

Perhaps  Microsoft will get a huge revenue boost by going after the CIA and NSA to get paid for the stolen software.... This could be a nice, special dividend for us shareholders!

Monday, March 06, 2017

China Lowers 2017 GDP Growth Target

According to the Financial Times article, "China targets economic growth of around 6.5 per cent," China lowered its annual economic growth target to "around” 6.5%, compared to last year's target range of 6.5% to 7%.

Do you believe these numbers?

This lower target was announced "on Sunday morning by Premier Li Keqiang in his annual “work report” to China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress. "

Other comments in the article of note:
  • "Reflecting Beijing’s caution, Mr Li said the government’s fiscal deficit target would remain unchanged at three per cent of GDP; last year it came in at 3.8%."
  • "Retails sales growth is also expected to moderate slightly to ten per cent this year."
  • "In his work report, Mr Li also predicted that fixed asset investment, a key driver for the world’s second-largest economy, would increase nine per cent. Fixed-asset investment grew only 8.1 per cent last year, below the government’s initial target of 10.5 per cent."
Note: You may have to enter "China targets economic growth of around 6.5 per cent" into a Google search window to get a direct link to the article.  

Monday, February 27, 2017

Warren Buffett's Top Holdings for 2017 - Berkshire Hathaway BRKA

On Saturday February 25, 2017 Warren Buffett released his 2017 Annual letter to shareholders for his Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) performance through December 31, 2016.  I wrote a detailed article about this for Seeking Alpha you can read at:
Buffett Listed 3 stocks of note with prices within 6% of his average purchase price.
He did not add to two top holdings that went down in 2016, an up year for the market.
Apple was a new position for 2016.
Any short-term market pullbacks to the average price Buffett paid could be a buying opportunity to do better than Buffett.
Holdings as of 12/31/16 from 2017 Shareholder letter:

Holdings as of 12/31/15 from 2016 Shareholder letter:

My Core and Explore Performance vs Warren Buffett's BRKA:

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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I'll use this article to add additional charts people request in comments here.

2/27/17 4:01 PM PST Update
  • According to Jim Cramer, on CNBC this morning Buffett said he now owns 133 million shares of Apple, making it equal to his holdings in Coke!  
2/28/17 7:09 AM PST Update:  
  • Doc Hopey wrote in the comments section of my article: "I am often impressed about the confidence regarding the depth of a moat. "Apple has a much bigger moat than IBM". How can you be so sure? I'd remember a lot of stocks in the tech business, that I guess I'd thought having a strong moat. Blackberry, Nokia, Kodak, Polaroid, Yahoo... Most of those have been (nearly) gone long before I started investing. Nonetheless in the rearview mirror all of those brands lost their mojo for technical revolutions. (Mostly) All of those consumer brands are gone and I am not sure if I would have gotten that right. Not so IBM."
Apple vs Sony Graph

Saturday, February 25, 2017

Market Update - Eleven Straight Days of Dow Records

Market Update for Saturday February 25, 2017
  • The Dow closed at a record high for 11 days in a row!!! 
  • Sentiment via my CPC and 2cs charts is getting extreme
  • It is nice that when you take profits you can get up to 2.38% in CDs (See CD Rate Survey) and 1.25% in savings (See Savings Account Rate Survey) 
  • Click images to see full size
This chart shows closing values for the markets by day.  Note how I highlight the numbers if they made a new record high.  
Led by the Nasdaq, this chart shows the markets are up between 2.76% and 8.59% YTD:

Long-term Dow & S&P500 charts:

The Russell 2000 small cap index is up over 46% in just over a year.  
These two short-term timing charts suggest caution now.
Do you have a list of stocks and ETFs you will use new cash or profit taking dollars for buying any major declines?

Some of the stocks I bought back a year ago when we had the last double digit decline (like FDX & LRCX) have done VERY well and I've taken profits to lock in huge gains.
Some Emailed Buy Alerts to my Subscribers Last Year
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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Friday, February 24, 2017

Tesla Double Bottom Breakdown with Next Five Support Levels TSLA

Tesla Double Bottom Breakdown - Support levels, listed below, range from $60 to $241.
Stock markets YTD graph also.

Support Levels:
  1. MA(50) = 50-day moving average at $240.11
  2. MA(200) = 200-day moving average at $216.58
  3. PNF Point & Figure blue support line at $188
  4. Lower dashed red support line at $155
  5. Open Gap around $60

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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 Stock Markets YTD

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Record Highs All Around

Market Update - US Stock Markets All Made New Record Highs!!! 
On Friday February 10, 2017, all major U.S. stock market indexes closed at new record highs.
Click images to see full size
This graph shows the market data graphically for 2016 YTD.
Irrational Exuberance and Irrational Pessimism Charts:  This two graphs puts the Dow Jones Industrial Average into perspective using a log scale.  
Many pundits on TV say lowering the corporate tax rate will allow hundreds of billions of dollars to return to the US where some will be used for share buybacks.  This buying by companies plus scared bond investors looking for return (as interest rates rise and bond returns crash) could easily drive the Dow back to the center blue line... 
Of course a bear market could also drive it to the lower blue line first so I take profits at new highs to have funds to buy the declines and thus beat the market over time like very few others have.
This graph show new record highs for my newsletter Explore Portfolio also. 
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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Friday, January 13, 2017

ECRI's Weekly Leading US Index Up to a New Record High

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI -- a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) today.

For the week ending January 6, 2017:

  • WLI was 144.9 up slightly from the prior week's reading of 144.6
  • WLI Growth was 12.2%, up from the prior week's reading of 12.0%.
Here is my chart of weekly WLI and its growth rate compared to quarterly US GDP back to 1994:

Chart of WLI and WLI growth vs GDP Growth (click charts to expand)

This is ECRI's chart showing WLI's weekly growth rate back to 1974:
Weekly ECRI Press Release Graph

Weekly ECRI vs the S&P500 and GDP Growth
Newsletter Special!
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and get the January 2017 Issue for FREE!!

  1. Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
  2. ECRI uses the WLI level and WLI growth rate to HELP predict turns in the business cycle and growth rate cycle respectively. Those target cycles are not the same as GDP level or growth, but rather a set of coincident indicators (including production, employment income and sales) that make up the coincident index. Based on two additional decades of data not available to the general public, there are a couple of occasions (in 1951 and 1966) when WLI growth fell well below negative ten, but no recessions resulted (although there were clear growth slowdowns).
  3. For a better understanding of ECRI's indicators, read their book, "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy
ECRI's Book

is Available on Kindle

Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards

Top Market Timer Awards for Stock & Bond Timing For 2016

I am pleased to announce that "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" did very well according to the January 2, 2017 issue of "Timer Digest."  This is the annual issue where Timer Digest announces their 2016 Timers of the Year lists for stocks and bonds.

Awards for Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter for 2016:

  1. 2016 Top Ten Long Term (Stock) Timers - Tied for fourth.
    Last year I tied for third.

Best timers for One Year PeriodCongratulations to Bill Meridian for winning the title of "2016 Timer of the Year" (for stocks) and to Steve Todd for the title of "2016 Bond Timer of the Year."    Note, I shared first place for the bond timing award three years ago (2013 Timer Digest Awards):

Bond Timer of the Year!

More about Timer Digest:
  • Timer Digest monitors over 100 of the leading market timing models, ranking the top stock, bond, and gold timing according to the performance of their recommendations over various periods of time. Timer Digest profiles many of the Top Investment and Financial Newsletter writers, including discussions of their timing models.
  • Timer Digest Features Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on its Cover

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Performance

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