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Monday, August 06, 2018

Bitcoin Scam - First and Final Notice Scam & Extortion Letter

A neighbor (Marius Milner, Barron Park) posted this in our local "nextdoor.com" social media group.
Bitcoin extortion scam doing the rounds 
I got a letter in the mail, in a plain white window envelope with no return address and no legible postmark. I've attached photos with my address and most of the scammer's Bitcoin address edited out.
A quick search for the contents suggest that this has been going on for a few months. The letter is sufficiently well worded that I think some people might be easily taken in by it. Don't be fooled, and stay safe!
If you get one of these letters, report it to the police department and the US Postal Service.


Update
Marius Milner - Barron Park·23m ago
I've reported this letter to the US Postal Inspection Service, since it's mail fraud. I looked up the Bitcoin address they told me to send money to, and unsurprisingly it has zero balance and no transaction history, making it effectively untraceable.

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Citigroup Panic-Euphoria Sentiment Indicator Update

Chart of Citigroup's Panic/ Euphoria Model  vs SPY as of June 23, 2018:
Today, Citigroup's Panic/ Euphoria Model is at 0.16, showing neither panic or euphoria.  If you look at my "Dow vs Oscillators" chart below that suggests a market turn next week, it looks like the Panic Euphoria model is making another higher low before the start of the typical "Summer Rally."
"The panic/euphoria model is a gauge of investor sentiment.  It identifies "Panic" and "Euphoria" levels which are statistically driven buy and sell signals for the broader market.  Historically, a reading below panic supports a better than 95% likelihood that stock prices will be higher one year later, while euphoria levels generate a better than 70% probability of stock prices being lower one year later.”   
Note:  Some articles I've found suggest  Citigroup's Panic/ Euphoria Model completely missed the financial collapse in 2008 so the model was "reformulated."  My guess is it is like most sentiment models in that its more useful to look at rate and direction of levels rather than absolute levels.
Dow vs Oscillators
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Saturday, June 16, 2018

Stock Market & Sentiment Update for June 16, 2018

We're nearly half way into 2018 and all stock markets have positive returns while the bond market, as measured by Vanguard's Total Bond Fund, is down 1.99% YTD.
Click the chart to see full sized images 
Market (charts) Update

Below are many of my favorite charts.  I explain most of the sentiment charts when I feature them in my newsletter.

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Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Why You Hear Yanny and Not Laurel Explained

Ah ha! It is both words over each other with Yanny in high frequency... 

What do you hear?


So if you listened to too much rock music or with you iPod too loud and damaged your ability to hear high frequency, you hear the second word, Laurel. 
I hear Yanny even though I'm somewhat old because I've been VERY careful over the years to protect my hearing since I enjoy music so much.... I don't go to concerts, Warriors basketball games (very loud) or shoot guns without ear plugs for a few examples... 

You can run the clip through a low pass filter and we should all hear Laurel if this is true.

Or turn down the treble on your PC and see if you hear Laurel if you year Yanny.

From  Do you hear what I hear? Yanny vs Laurel
I went to Northeast Hearing & Speech to chat with audiologists Jamie Healy and Hannah Millstine about how two people could listen to the same audio but hear two very different things. 
"There's a little high frequency difference between the two so if you have maybe better hearing for high frequencies you would probably tend to hear Yanni where if you had high frequency loss, mild or moderate, you may hear Laurel" said Healy. 
Millstine added, "There was some proof out there that Laurel is the original word, the original recording is Laurel and there is a high frequency overlay that got put on to make Yanni. Basically you are listening to two words being said at once."
UPDATE 5/16/18 at 5:01PM PST: What is really odd is I heard Yanny every time until I went to vocabulary.com to click the speaker to hear how to pronounce "laurel" and I heard "laurel" not "Yanny." 
https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/laurel
So, then I came back here and played the same clip and hear Laurel rather than Yanny! 

What changed in my brain's sound processor since I posted this article?

If you heard Yanny like I did and then play the Laurel clip at vocabulary.com does that also retrain your ear to hear Laurel?

Even odder, I reloaded this page and played the clip again and heard Yanny.... so I opened the Laurel clip at vocabulary.com on my second monitor, played the laurel clip three times then played this clip again and I was back to hearing laurel!

I wonder if I come back tomorrow and listen again if I'll hear Yanny or Laurel.....

UPDATE 5/16/18 at 5:21PM PST: When I play Kristen Sze's Channel 7 News clip (at 4:24PM PST on my DVR) of her playing her phone to others through my audiophile quality home HiFi with a $2,000 Marantz receiver driving an external audophile power amp to power expensive speakers plus a Velodyne subwoofer with its own amp running off the receiver, all I heard was Yanny on the home theater... until I played it back and forth with the dictionary.com laurel clip on my low quality $70 computer speakers ... then sometimes I hear Laurel and sometimes Yanny!

SO STRANGE!

Now I'm tempted to Chromecast the clip from my phone to my Home theater and see if it stays at Yanni.... or not and get ready to watch the Warriors beat Houston!

Thursday, April 12, 2018

Google Village Proposed San Jose Development Map

Yesterday's San Jose Mercury News had a great article "Google’s village gets closer to reality" that discusses Google (GOOGL & GOOG) parent company Alphabet's progress on plans to build a new campus "village" near the Diridon Station transit hub. 
Mountain View-based Google and its development ally Trammell Crow have spent at least $221.6 million buying an array of properties on the western edges of downtown San Jose, within and near a 1-mile stretch that begins north of the SAP Center and reaches south nearly to Interstate 280. Among the major recent deals: The Google and Trammell Crow venture bought a large site that now is occupied by Orchard Supply Hardware, and the search giant has struck a deal to purchase a huge property from Trammell Crow that is approved for 1 million square feet, hundreds of residences and retail. Despite the extensive work and investments that have occurred already, construction isn’t going to begin tomorrow, Google executives cautioned.
Here is a map from the article
Given what has happened to property near Facebook, Tesla, Apple and Google campuses with near gridlock traffic making location close to the campuses extremely valuable, I expect San Jose real estate withing a mile of two of this development to see similar gains.  Older, established neighborhoods with large lots to build "McMansions" should do especially well if they follow what we've seen in Menlo Park (Facebook), Palo Alto (Tesla & HP), Mountain View (Google), Cupertino (Apple) and Los Altos close enough to ride a bike or a short drive to them all.  Actually, a bike ride from Menlo Park to Apple's new campus in Cupertino would be a great daily ride for exercise on Foothill Expressway.

Here is a larger Google Map of the area
Let's just hope that Google's plans are not the mark of a stock price top similar to what we saw in 2000 when Cisco (CSCO) made big plans to expand in the Coyote Valley and ended up with empty buildings near its current headquarters. 
More GOOGL charts
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Thursday, April 05, 2018

KEYS - Keysight Stock Charts

Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS) is the world's leading electronic measurement company.  Agilent spun off KEYS in November 2014, 15 years after Hewlett-Packard spun off Agilent in 1999. Keysight is the original Hewlett-Packard instrument company before HP got into computers and semiconductors. Just as Agilent concentrates on “picks and shovels” for the emerging biotechnology industry, KEYS will focus on making test equipment for the electronics industry. To increase growth, on 4/18/17, Keys acquired networking company Ixia for $1.6B in cash via more debt. Ixia addresses fast-growing communications and networking trends including 5G, IoT, visibility, security and application performance.

KEYS has:

  • Filled two of four open gaps from the past year  left from its run from $35.62 to $55.21
  • Met the minimum target for the inverted Head & Shoulders pattern shown on my linear chart below. 
  • Corrected 8.7% off its record high, much less than any of the major indexes

Hourly Chart
Sold at the Top:  On March 9, less than a month ago, I took profits at $54.  
The question now is where and when do I buy back those shares.

Log KEYS chart

Linear KEYS chart
More KEYS charts

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Friday, March 16, 2018

Bitcoin Update - John McAfee's Bet for $500,000 in Three Years

I look at Bitcoin as a trading vehicle and not an investment but a SPECULATION. 
Last year Bitcoin went from $1,000 to $20,000 and we heard a lot of cheer leading from speculators hoping to get others to buy.
This year it crashed to under 6,000 before recovering "some" to about $8,500. 
 Are the bitcoin supporters out there still buying or have you taken your lumps (or profits) and moved on?

Last year on July 17, 2017, self proclaimed "Crypto Proponent" and founder of McAfee Antivirus software now owned by Intel (INTC), John McAfee said he would "eat my dick" if Bitcoin did not move "above $500,000 in three years."




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More
  • It is called "Bitcoin" not "Bit Coin"
  • Current Quote on Google and Barchart



Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Market Update for February 28, 2018

Two months into 2018, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes all are positive while the Russell 2000 index is down for the year. Below are a table and a year-to-date, YTD, graph showing the data. 


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Thursday, February 15, 2018

2CS & CPC Charts Still Show High Fear Levels

Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for February 15, 2018.

This market update chart shows the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small cap index are now all back in the green for the year.

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This chart shows the depth of the correction for the major averages.  How many who said they would buy after a 10% correction showed up?  It looks like some sure did!
This chart shows the S&P 500 has rallied to its 50-day moving average, MA(50), after correcting down to its MA(200).
This chart shows the Dow corrected down to the dotted orange trend line before bouncing.

 These sentiment charts show that even after a big recovery, there is still plenty of fear remaining.


Can you guess when I will draw the next green dot?
Fear and Greed index starting to recover.

 This inverted head & shoulder plot is very exciting.

Did you buy anything during the market decline? 

I did.  Here is part of one of my special email alerts I sent my subscribers:




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