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Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Tax Revenue Grows but 2018 Deficit Explodes on Higher Government Spending

The US deficit grew to $779 billion in fiscal year 2018, up 17% from fiscal 2017.  

If you check my table below, it shows receipts from taxes and tariffs grew 0.6%, 1.5% and 0.4% in 2016, 2017 and 2018.   Over the same period, government spending grew by 4.5%, 3.3% and 3.2% .  Clearly it is not the "tax cuts"  but the spending that caused the deficit to explode as the data clearly shows.

This is the largest deficit number since 2012. 

Can you imagine if your family spent like this?
Where the money came from and was spent:

In Fiscal 2018 [$ millions]:  
  • Receipts = $3,328,745 
  • Spending = $4,107,750 
  • Deficit = $779,005 

In Fiscal 2016 [$ millions]: 

  • Receipts = $3,266,775 
  • Spending = $3,852,421 
  • Deficit = $585,646 
Note how Corporate taxes fell by $95B between 2016 and 2018 while "trickle down" to the workers where the Payroll Tax (or OASDI and Medicare) grew $56B from $1,115B to $1,171B.  If you add in the gains in personal income taxes that grew $138B from $1,546B to $1,684B, you could say the total gain of $56B + $138B  or $194B in taxes from individuals more than made up for the lower taxes paid by corporations.  

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For more, read Final Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlaysof the United States GovernmentFor Fiscal Year 2018 Through September 30, 2018, and Other Periods 

Friday, October 12, 2018

10/11/18 Market Update - Fear & Greed Index Only 5

Yesterday the markets fell enough to turn sentiment very bearish which is what we usually need for a strong rally.

Yesterday, the markets were down off their peaks roughly:
  • Dow $INDU down 7.7%
  • S&P500 $SPX down 8.0%
  • Nasdaq $COMPQ down 10.6%
  • Russell 2000 $RUT down 12.9%
The Fear and Greed Index crashing to 5 usually means the markets will be significantly higher soon.

Timer Digest Coverage of My 9/21/18 Newsletter

Needless to say, I used that cash to add to shares during the decline including one of my favorite big name US tech stocks and a beaten down international ETF!

More charts:

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Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Performance

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