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Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Investors Intelligence Sentiment vs S&P 500

Investors Intelligence Survey Data of Bulls-Bears vs. Weekly S&P 500

The “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS is one of the oldest weekly sentiment indicators used today. Charts of the Investors’ Intelligence Survey (IIS) “Bulls over Bulls plus Bears” versus the market are key tools for stock market technical analysis or sentiment. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W. Cohen and has been published every week ever since.

With the Nasdaq at a record high and the S&P 500 back to only 5% below its record high, II sentiment has recovered nicely.  I've been taking profits on some of the shares I bought during the "Covid-19 Bear Market" so I'm ready.
Chart of Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey
Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) vs S&P 500
(best at full screen on large monitor)

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Saturday, April 11, 2020

Best Week Since 1974 -Market Update 4/11/20

Market Update 4/11/20: For the Easter holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 surged 12.1% for its biggest one-week gain since 1974, while the Dow rallied 12% and the Nasdaq jumped 10.6%. The S&P 500 (Chart #3 below) is well into a new bull market up nearly 29% off its bear market low.

It is shocking to see record bearish sentiment on many of the sentiment charts at the end and equally shocking how quickly we've recovered off the lows to a more "neutral" position.

For the year, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 16.9%, 13.7% and 9.1% respectively with the Russell 2000 still in bear territory down 25.3% YTD .

After falling 36% to a bear market low of 2,191.86, the S&P 500 has rallied 29% to a new, cyclical bull market high while covering just over 50% of its loss from the peak.

While the the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now down less than 20% from their peaks, the Russell 2000 trails significantly at down 28.4%.

Hopefully you raised cash like I did in my newsletter to have funds to buy back some of what we sold at much lower prices.

Intel (INTC) is one of the "great trading stocks" I cover in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" where I trade Intel around core positions.
I took profits in January at $66.57 then used the bear market decline to buy the shares back at a $14.65 discount ($66.57-$51.92=$14.65) in March.
Here is a copy of the email alert I sent my subscribers to REMIND them Intel reached the price I published in the newsletter for buying shares back.

More Intel charts.  The second chart at that link has a very cool AI (Artificial Intelligence) feature that draws resistance and support lines on the one-year graph.

During the COVID-19 Bear Market Decline, I added to 15 of the 17 individual "issues" I cover in my newsletter for "Kirk's Explore Portfolio." That was a record as typically there are only one or two buys or sells during a month. I haven't worked so hard to send out alerts and update my newsletter with new target prices (listed on the full page coverage of each individual issue with a summary of all buy and sell prices updated on page 5 of each newsletter) since I started the newsletter in 1998! Order a Free Sample Issue if you wish to see what this looks like.
Now with the great, big rally from the bottom, we are very, very close to my "take profits" points for many of these stocks. Some are still closer to the buy points so it is not too late either. IF this turns out to be a long, secular bear market with cyclical bull market rallies, then I should continue to profit from that volatility.

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Here are a few, important investor sentiment charts that I cover in my newsletter. You can see there was record fear at the bottom of this bear market before the current bull market started.

Come discuss this article and more on my Facebook "Investing for the Long Term" group!

Thursday, March 05, 2020

Investor Sentiment Charts for March 5, 2020

At the end of February the Stock market, as measured by the Dow, S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, was down double digits from recent record highs.  Yesterday it was up some from those lows.  

Investor sentiment was extremely bullish as the stock market was making those record highs but now it is much subdued with some readings at extremely bearish levels. 

As of 8:30 AM PST today (3/5/20) all four markets are down 1% to 10% with my Newsletter Explore Portfolio down 2.9%.

Market Update for Wednesday March 4, 2020
Market Graph for Thursday March 5, 2020:
Market Update for Friday February 28, 2020

Fear & Greed Index for Thursday March 5, 2020
Fear and Greed Index vs S&P 500:

DJIA vs Oscillators 


II Investors Intelligence Bulls vs Bears

AAII Survey: Bulls minus Bears vs. Log DJIA

CPC Put/Call Ratio

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Wednesday, February 12, 2020

US Treasury Revenue up 9.5% while Spending Soars 22.2% in January 2020

My table below shows a "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government by Month Through January 2020."  

Monthly US Treasury Statement Calculations

  • A staggering 22.1 cents of ever dollar spent so far in fiscal 2020 came from new borrowing!
Year over year change for January:
  • Monthly revenue (taxes, fees and tariffs) grew 9.5% over 2019
  • Monthly spending grew 22.2% vs 2019
  • The monthly deficit grew $32.5B vs falling $8.7B in 2019 
  • but year over year the total deficit grew 25.4%!!!

Some try to blame the Trump tax cuts on the deficit, but clearly the revenue collected is higher.  The reasons for higher revenues are:

  1. Lower tax rates for corporations gave them money to expand, pay raises, increase dividends.  For example, the Minimum wage in Google's home city Mountain View, CA is $15.65 per hour.  I've heard Walmart in Mountain View starts most workers at about $20 per hour if they have better skills and non-English speaking dishwashers.
    Higher dividends paid to shareholders means more income to stockholders that get taxed.
  2. Removing the deductibility of state income, property and sales taxes, which are very high in California, raised taxes on the wealthy in blue states. 
  3. Tariffs from the Trade war increase revenue. 
If any of the politicians were concerned about the deficits, they would speak of how they will lower spending or increase productivity in the business sector to attract even more high paying jobs to the US.

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Friday, January 10, 2020

2020 Minimum Wage by City in San Francisco Bay Area

This table shows the minimum wage for select cities in the San Francisco Bay Area for 2020.

The highest minimum wage is $16.05 in Mountain View, California, home of Google. 

The lowest minimum wage is $13.00 per hour, usually in rural cities.

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Wednesday, January 01, 2020

2019 Final Stock Market Results

What a great year 2019 was for the stock market!

I was bullish for 2019 but I sure didn't "expect" the markets to gain over 20%

I was somewhat surprised that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) only gained 10.9% in 2019 as shown in the graph below.  
In 1999 Buffett's fund actually lost about 19% as investors poured money into technology bubble stocks like Qualcom, Micron (MU), and AMD along with many others that eventually went bankrupt.  Of course, his value stocks did great when the bubble collapsed and money started looking for earnings and dividends again.  
Now Buffett owns a lot of Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) which may explain positive performance in a year my top holding and tech stock gained 115%.  
We'll have to keep an eye on it for sure. 

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Update 1/3/2020

Values by Year

update 2/4/2020

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