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Thursday, March 05, 2020

Investor Sentiment Charts for March 5, 2020

At the end of February the Stock market, as measured by the Dow, S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000, was down double digits from recent record highs.  Yesterday it was up some from those lows.  

Investor sentiment was extremely bullish as the stock market was making those record highs but now it is much subdued with some readings at extremely bearish levels. 

As of 8:30 AM PST today (3/5/20) all four markets are down 1% to 10% with my Newsletter Explore Portfolio down 2.9%.

Market Update for Wednesday March 4, 2020
Market Graph for Thursday March 5, 2020:
Market Update for Friday February 28, 2020

Fear & Greed Index for Thursday March 5, 2020
Fear and Greed Index vs S&P 500:

DJIA vs Oscillators 


II Investors Intelligence Bulls vs Bears

AAII Survey: Bulls minus Bears vs. Log DJIA

CPC Put/Call Ratio

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Wednesday, February 12, 2020

US Treasury Revenue up 9.5% while Spending Soars 22.2% in January 2020

My table below shows a "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and the Deficit/Surplus of the U.S. Government by Month Through January 2020."  

Monthly US Treasury Statement Calculations

  • A staggering 22.1 cents of ever dollar spent so far in fiscal 2020 came from new borrowing!
Year over year change for January:
  • Monthly revenue (taxes, fees and tariffs) grew 9.5% over 2019
  • Monthly spending grew 22.2% vs 2019
  • The monthly deficit grew $32.5B vs falling $8.7B in 2019 
  • but year over year the total deficit grew 25.4%!!!

Some try to blame the Trump tax cuts on the deficit, but clearly the revenue collected is higher.  The reasons for higher revenues are:

  1. Lower tax rates for corporations gave them money to expand, pay raises, increase dividends.  For example, the Minimum wage in Google's home city Mountain View, CA is $15.65 per hour.  I've heard Walmart in Mountain View starts most workers at about $20 per hour if they have better skills and non-English speaking dishwashers.
    Higher dividends paid to shareholders means more income to stockholders that get taxed.
  2. Removing the deductibility of state income, property and sales taxes, which are very high in California, raised taxes on the wealthy in blue states. 
  3. Tariffs from the Trade war increase revenue. 
If any of the politicians were concerned about the deficits, they would speak of how they will lower spending or increase productivity in the business sector to attract even more high paying jobs to the US.

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Friday, January 10, 2020

2020 Minimum Wage by City in San Francisco Bay Area

This table shows the minimum wage for select cities in the San Francisco Bay Area for 2020.

The highest minimum wage is $16.05 in Mountain View, California, home of Google. 

The lowest minimum wage is $13.00 per hour, usually in rural cities.

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Wednesday, January 01, 2020

2019 Final Stock Market Results

What a great year 2019 was for the stock market!

I was bullish for 2019 but I sure didn't "expect" the markets to gain over 20%

I was somewhat surprised that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) only gained 10.9% in 2019 as shown in the graph below.  
In 1999 Buffett's fund actually lost about 19% as investors poured money into technology bubble stocks like Qualcom, Micron (MU), and AMD along with many others that eventually went bankrupt.  Of course, his value stocks did great when the bubble collapsed and money started looking for earnings and dividends again.  
Now Buffett owns a lot of Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) which may explain positive performance in a year my top holding and tech stock gained 115%.  
We'll have to keep an eye on it for sure. 

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Update 1/3/2020

Values by Year

update 2/4/2020

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