Kirk's Market Thoughts

George Soros 2012 Market Outlook

2012-01-26T10:06:00.000-08:00

George Soros Market Outlook for 2012. Soros says there is the POTENTIAL for a total meltdown greater than the 2008 financial crisis. "I am not here to cheer you up. The situation is about as serious and difficult as I've experienced in my career... The best-case scenario is a deflationary environment. The worst-case scenario is a collapse of the financial system... At times like these,

Ed Hyman & Bob Doll's Market Outlook for 2012

2012-01-07T11:05:00.000-08:00

This is a summary of a video interview by Consuelo Mack with Ed Hyman and Bob Doll. Ed Hyman has been rated the #1 economist by Institutional Investor for 32 years running and recently named to "All American Research Team Hall of Fame." Bob Doll is the Chief Equity Strategist at Blackrock. Highlights of 2011: Worst Market Volatility in decades Corporate profits and cash levels are record highs

Byron Wien's 14 Bullish Predictions for 2012

2012-01-05T07:51:00.000-08:00

Yesterday Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, issued his list of Surprises for 2012 in this press release as well as an appearance on CNBC. This is the 27th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of

ECRI Still Forecasts A Recession

2011-11-07T10:48:00.001-08:00

Unimpressed with Current Economic Data, ECRI Still Forecasts A Recession The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group also know as ECRI, continues to see a US recession in our future. Even after a large rebound for the stock market with coincident economic data coming in better than expected, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director, is not

The European Bailout Explained with a Cartoon

2011-10-31T07:24:00.000-07:00

This explains well how the Eurozone solved their debt crisis. Also, my latest article: Did Jim Cramer Really Say Buy Netflix At $50 And Sell In High $100s?

October Update

2011-10-21T06:49:00.000-07:00

Links and Articles for October New from 2011 Charts October 11 CalPERS Asset Allocation Ratio and Target Annual ReturnJoseph Dear, CEO of CalPERS and Assistant Secretary of Labor at OSHA under Bill Clinton, showed this table today on CNBC.

ECRI says Jobs To Get Worse Under Recession-Bound U.S. Economy

2011-09-30T14:55:00.000-07:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) today. (More about ECRI) From ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls: Jobs To Get Worse Under Recession-Bound U.S. Economy ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading

ECRI Recession Call

2011-09-27T11:55:00.000-07:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group known as ECRI, called for a recession. (More about ECRI) Here is what the International Business Times reported this mornng in a summary called "6 Signs We are in a Global Recession." Stagnation may be an overly positive term. The Economic Cycle Research Institute in mid-September entitled its U.S.

Fed Twist - US Federal Reserve Twist Statement Explained

2011-09-21T12:30:00.000-07:00

Today the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met then issued a Press Release explaining what many on TV call the new "Fed Twist Policy." In a nutshell, the FOMC will sell short term US Treasuries to generate funds to buy longer term US Treasuries. They explain it in paragraph three of today's press release. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that

ECRI - No Recession Call Yet - Jury is Still Out

2011-08-29T11:17:00.000-07:00

In this August 29, 2011 video interview ECRI's (The Economic Cycle Research Institute) Lakshman Achuthan explains why the jury is still out as to whether the cyclical (not transitory) slowdown will turn into a new recession. For more information, read:More about ECRI June 3, 2011 "ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months" Nov 30, 2010 "ECRI Calls for

Steve Jobs’s Resignation Letter to Apple

2011-08-25T06:42:00.000-07:00

On August 23, 2011 after the stock market closed, Steve Jobs resigned as CEO of Apple (Apple charts and Quote) Inc. Apple's stock close Aug. 23 at $376.18. The next day, Apple stock opened at $365.08, down 2.95%. Below is the Steve Job's letter to Apples board of directors. (Source Apple Press Info) August 24, 2011 Letter from Steve Jobs To the Apple Board of Directors and the Apple Community:

East Coast 5.9 Quake Details - Bush's Fault

2011-08-23T13:06:00.000-07:00

Flash News. President Obama says the shaking on the East Coast today is Bush's FAULT! (A little California humor I thought of myself!) 5.9 Mw - VIRGINIA Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 5.9 Mw Date-Time 23 Aug 2011 17:51:04 UTC 23 Aug 2011 13:51:04 near epicenter 23 Aug 2011 09:51:04 standard time in your timezone Location 37.881N

ECRI Can Not Rule Out 2012 Recession

2011-08-21T10:38:00.000-07:00

In this July 29, 2011 video interview ECRI's (The Economic Cycle Research Institute) Lakshman Achuthan says the business cycle slowdown they predicted while others were calling for a second half recovery "persists through year-end.” June 3, 2011 "ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months" More about ECRI VIDEO ECRI has not called for a recession but we

2011 Intraday "Correction" Statistics 08/04/11

2011-08-04T13:20:00.000-07:00

Make sure you check out my: August 4 Chart of AAII Bulls-Bears Sentiment Indicator S&P500 Data - More S&P500 Charts Last Market High 05/02/11 at 1,370.58 Last Market low 08/04/11 at 1,199.54 Current S&P500 Price = 1,200.07 Decline in Points = 170.51 Decline in percent = 12.4% Max Decline = 12.5% Since the decline in the S&P500 is less than 20% and the 50-DMA is still above the 200-DMA,

Capital Gains Tax Rates - History

2011-07-28T10:48:00.000-07:00

The table here shows the Maximum capital gains tax rate history plus top federal income tax rates since 1916. Table of Historical Capital Gains Tax Rates In 1916 the Capital Gains Tax Rate was 15%. Between 1987 and 1996, Capital Gains Tax Rate was between 28% and 29.2%. In 1997, under president Bill Clinton, they cut rates to 21.2% and the stock market took off. In 2003, rates were cut

July Articles on Seeking Alpha

2011-07-20T09:20:00.000-07:00

Below is a list of my current articles on Seeking Alpha.July 20 The Gold/Silver Price Ratio Is Back Below 40 "The price of gold made an all-time high Monday, July 18, 2011, at $1,602.40. Silver closed Monday at $40.34, up more than double from a year ago, but it remains well off its recent high of $49.82.....This means an ounce of gold is now less than 40 times more

Top Ten Signs the United States Is Running Out of Money

2011-07-18T14:55:00.000-07:00

Too bad this is too close to the truth! 10. For $10,000, you get your face on the dollar 9. The White House now has a two-drink minimum 8. There's a listing on eBay for North Dakota 7. Barack Obama sold his Nobel Prize to 'Cash4Gold' 6. Americans now attempting to sneak into Mexico 5. Renting Biden's house to backpacking German tourists 4. Costs $25 for each bag the president wants to check on

Did Raising Minimum Wages Kill Job Creation?

2011-07-09T08:07:00.000-07:00

How much did raising the minimum wage 41% between 1997 and 2009 contribute the inability of the country to create jobs after the past two recessions? Could the prosperity of the 1990s be due to everyone being able to get a low paying job which gave them a small reward for reliably showing up to work but MORE IMPORTANTLY gave them incentive to improve themselves and move up to a higher paying job

IMF Economic Outlook for the US

2011-07-05T12:38:00.000-07:00

The International Money Fund, IMF, expects slow but steady economic recovery for the United States two years after the worst of the financial crisis. click for full size table In the June 20, 2011 "Concluding Statement of the 2011 Article IV Mission to The United States of America" the IMF makes the following forecast for US GDP growth:2011: 2.5 percent 2012: 2.7 percent 2013: 2.7 percent 2014

Charts, Graphs and Tables

2011-06-25T10:30:00.000-07:00

New Charts: CalPERSAsset Allocation Ratio and Target Annual Return it is interesting that CalPERS has a target annual return of nearly 8% Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern - DOW Gold Price Per Ounce History Test of SOX Neckline From Above S&P500 Earnings Adjusted forInflation Median Single-Family

What Caused the Housing Bubble & Who Warned About It

2011-06-11T06:54:00.001-07:00

This video stands on its own. Make sure you watch the bit near the end (starting at 8:10) where former president Bill Clinton gives his opinion. All I can add is I saw many of these people make these statements on TV

ECRI's US-FIG Down Again in May

2011-06-03T08:27:00.000-07:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI, released its latest readings for its proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauges this morning. ECRI says the value of their U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) "lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflatinon cycle." (More about ECRI)In May, the USFIG fell to 101.0, down

New Series I Bond Rates

2011-05-02T06:17:00.000-07:00

Series I Bonds, "inflation bonds" or i-bonds, are a low-risk, liquid savings product. The Bureau of the Public Debt announced the new earnings rate for Series I (for Inflation) savings bonds issued from May 2, 2011 through October 2011 will be 4.60%.The 4.60% composite earnings rate combines a 0.00% fixed rate of return with the 4.60% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price

Gold -to-Silver Price Ratio Falls Below 30-Year Low

2011-04-29T07:00:00.000-07:00

With the price of silver soaring faster than gold, the gold-silver price ratio has plunged below its 1983 low of 31.97. The gold-to-silver price ratio, defined as the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver, closed Wednesday (April 27, 2011) at 31.93. This means an ounce of gold is now less than 32 times more expensive than an ounce of silver.Just four weeks ago, on

Survey Survey Best CD Rates

2011-04-27T09:22:00.000-07:00

The top CD annal percentage yield (APY) this week is at Discover Bank for a 10-year certificate of deposit currently paying 3.00%. With the 10-year US Treasury paying 3.36%, there is little incentive to lock up money for 10 years at banks. For shorter periods, like one to five years, you do better with bank CDs. For example, the Pacific Mercantile Bank currently pays 1.26% for their 1-yr

On Tax Day, Libertarians call spending compromise "travesty"

2011-04-15T09:15:00.000-07:00

Libertarians call spending compromise "travesty" FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 15, 2011 WASHINGTON - Libertarian Party Executive Director Wes Benedict issued the following statement today: "Just in time for Tax Day, the Republicans and Democrats in Congress have joined hands to clobber American taxpayers. "According to the Associated Press, the 2011 spending compromise will 'cut federal outlays

Dow-Gold Price Ratio Continues Decline

2011-04-08T06:50:00.000-07:00

Two months ago I pointed out in a Seeking Alpha article that the Dow-Gold Ratio had reached a level of strong resistance. Dow-Gold Ratio Now at Strong Resistance, Will It Break Higher or Lower? The Dow-gold ratio is defined as the ratio of the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of gold. At Thursday's close of 8.51, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, measured in

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2011-04-07T16:10:00.000-07:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2011 YTD Weekly Data through 04/7/2011 Equity Fund Inflows $7.7 BilTaxable Bond Fund Inflows $5.1 BilxETFs:Equity Fund Inflows $1.9 BilTaxable Bond Fund Inflows $4.1 Bil Fund Flow Totals by Year & 2011 through 4/6/11 Table 1 Lipper Fund Flows for Full Year - $B Fund Flows for Equity Tax Bond MM Fund

ECRI Article: Mr. Greenspan’s Blind Spot

2011-04-02T07:09:00.000-07:00

Article by ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji. ECRI is an independent institute dedicated to economic cycle research in the tradition established by its founder, Geoffrey H. Moore, whom The Wall Street Journal called "the father of leading indicators." Read "More about ECRI." In early March, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked to comment about ECRI's long-held criticism that

Gold/Silver Price Ratio Plunges Below 27-Year Low

2011-03-31T06:03:00.000-07:00

With silver prices continuing to make new highs while gold has not made a new high, the gold:silver price ratio plunged to a new low dating back to 1983! The gold-to-silver price ratio, defined as the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver, closed Monday at 37.99. This means an ounce of gold is now less than 40 times more expensive than an ounce of silver. Charts

Fed May End QE2 Early

2011-03-28T07:49:00.000-07:00

Some members of the Federal Reserve are quite worried about inflation and speaking their mind:Fed Should Consider Curtailing Stimulus Program, Bullard Says March 28 (Bloomberg) -- St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said policy makers should review whether to curtail a plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities, noting that the U.S. recovery may not need that much

Top CD Rates at Largest US Banks

2011-03-11T13:22:00.000-08:00

Interest rates are starting to go up on the long end while the short term rates are terribly low. This week's survey or CD rates at the largest US banks shows BofA advertises 2.25% for a 5-year CD with Citibank paying the lowest for 5-years at 2.0%. Historical CD Rate Graphs When we did our last survey of rates at the largest banks, a 5-year CD at the largest US Bank, Bank of America, was

ECRI Global Inflation Numbers Heating Up - Fed Behind the Curve

2011-03-04T16:17:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauges this morning. (More about ECRI) Five of the seven regions covered show increasing inflationary pressure with Japan and Australia going against the global trend.Commenting on the US report, Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder and

ECRI's WLI Growth Rate at 42 Week High

2011-03-04T12:24:00.001-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. For the week ending February 25, 2011: WLI is 129.8 down from the prior week's reading of 130.5 Last week marked a 42 week high for WLI. Its last higher reading was for the week ending May 7, 2010, when it was

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2011-03-03T16:04:00.000-08:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2011 YTD Weekly Data through 03/02/2011 Equity Fund Inflows $2.3 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $2.5 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $233 Mil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $2.5 Bil Fund Flow Totals by Year & 2011 through 3/2/11 Table 1 Lipper Fund Flows for Full Year - $B Fund Flows for Equity Tax Bond

Jim Cramer Recommends Gold and Gold Corp.

2011-03-01T14:06:00.000-08:00

Today on CNBC's "Street Signs" at about 11:30AM PST Amanda Drury interviewed Jim Cramer for their regular "stop trading" segment. Gold (Quote and Chart) closed at $1,410.90 per ounce near its all time high. Jim Cramer was very excited about Gold. Cramer said"I've been a gold bug since 'Mad Money" began. EVERYONE should have ten to twenty percent of their portfolios in gold. Gold is "

ECRI's WLI at 42 Week High: 'Get While the Getting Is Good'

2011-02-25T12:37:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) You can read my full article at Seeking Alpha: ECRI's WLI at 42 Week High: 'Get While the Getting Is Good'How to play ECRI's Signals: I own a lot of small cap stocks in my personal "explore

Gold to Silver Price Ratio Near Multi-Decade Lows

2011-02-10T11:01:00.000-08:00

The gold-to-silver price ratio, defined as the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver, closed Wednesday at 45.16 This means an ounce of gold is just over forty five times more expensive than an ounce of silver.Charts of the gold-to-silver price ratio, GLD, SLV, Gold and Silver prices plus the rest of my Seeking Alpha article at:Gold / Silver Price Ratio Near

Dow-Gold Price Ratio at Strong Resistance

2011-02-08T11:07:00.000-08:00

The Dow-gold ratio is right at its long-term, down-trending resistance level. The Dow-gold ratio is defined as the ratio of the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) divided by the price of gold. Charts of the Dow-gold ratio price ratio and the price of gold plus the rest of my Seeking Alpha article at:Dow-Gold Ratio Now at Strong Resistance, Will It Break Higher or Lower? At 8.96, the

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2011-02-05T07:38:00.000-08:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2011 YTD Weekly Data through 02/02/2011 Equity Fund Inflows $107 Mil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $4.4 Bil xETFs Equity Fund Inflows $2.3 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $3.6 Bil Fund Flow Totals by Year & 2011 through 2/2/11 Table 1 AMG Fund Flows for Full Year - $B Fund Flows for Equity Tax Bond MM

ECRI's Future Inflation Guage at 9-Month High

2011-02-04T07:15:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) this morning. (More about ECRI) ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose again in January. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby

Growing Up Without A Cell Phone - A Look at Change

2011-02-02T08:24:00.000-08:00

I found some of these ideas on a forum I participate in. I've added and updated a few to make it more personal. If you are 40, or older, you might think this is hilarious! When I was a kid, adults used to bore me to tears with their tedious diatribes about how hard things were. When they were growing up during the Great Depression they had to make their toys; what with walking twenty-five miles

Kirk Lindstrom's Two Investment Letters

2011-01-25T07:54:00.000-08:00

I write two different, but related, newsletters. #1 "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" is $155 a year and uses the "core and explore" method to invest. It has two core portfolios plus an explore portfolio of individual stocks. My aggressive core portfolio has 80% equities while my "conservative" core portfolio has 50% in equities. My core portfolios are made of index funds and ETFs for the very

ECRI's WLI Back to 36 Week High

2011-01-21T08:04:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending January 14, 2011 WLI is 128.9 up from the prior week's reading of 128.1 and equal to the reading for the week ending December 24, 2010. These are the highest readings

ECRI WLI Indicates US Growth To Revive Soon

2011-01-14T08:29:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending January 7, 2011 WLI is 128.1 down from the prior week's reading of 128.9 and equal to the reading for the week ending December 17, 2010 The lowest reading for WLI on

Ed Hyman & Dennis Stattman's Outlook for 2011

2011-01-10T07:41:00.000-08:00

Summary of Consuelo Mack's interview with Wall Street's long-time number one ranked economist, Ed Hyman of ISI Group, and BlackRock's star Global Asset Allocation Fund manager, Dennis Stattman. You can watch the full interview at the bottom of this summary.State of the US Economy:Ed Hyman:The economy is not very healthy because we are doing quantitative easing. About 3 months ago, it looked like

ECRI's WLI Ends 2010 on a High Note

2011-01-07T08:21:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending December 31, 2010 WLI is 128.9 down a tick from the prior week's reading of 129.0. The last time WLI was higher was the reading for the week of May 7, 2010 when it

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2011-01-06T18:17:00.000-08:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2010 YTDWeekly Data for 1/7/2011 Fund Flow Totals by Year & 2011 through 1/7/11 Table 1 AMG Fund Flows for Full Year - $B Fund Flows for Equity Tax Bond MM Fund 2003 40.8 40.7 NC 2004 95.0 11.3 (64.3) 2005 71.9 9.3 89.0 2006 52.5 29.9

My Portfolios at All Time Highs as we Enter 2011

2011-01-01T12:27:00.000-08:00

In 2010 YTD my "Explore Portfolio" gained 20.4%!! Happy New Year everyone! 2010 was another great year for stock market investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained and the S&P500 both had double digit returns. When you include dividends, the DOW and S&P500 gained 13.8 and 14.9%, respectively. 2010 was an even better year for "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" where my "explore

NAAIM Sentiment National Association Active Investment Managers

2010-12-27T13:25:00.000-08:00

NAAIM Sentiment Charts - National Association of Active Investment Managers Here is a chart for another sentiment index from the "National Association of Active Investment Managers" or NAAIM. click for full size image 2010 YTD my "Explore Portfolio" is up 20.7% YTD (Subscribe Now - FREE Sample Issue - More Info - Return Data ) Recent NAAIM Data Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average

Best Investment & Retirement Portfolios for the Long-term

2010-12-22T10:49:00.000-08:00

Charles Munger, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway and Kirk Lindstrom's Explore portfolio What do Charles T. Munger and Warren E. Buffett`s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) have in common with Kirk Lindstrom's Explore Portfolio? Commonalities:All invest for the long-term where first priority is getting good value for the investment dollar in companies we like for above average long-term growth.

ECRI's WLI & WLI Growth Rate Highest Since May

2010-12-10T08:22:00.000-08:00

ECRI's WLI & WLI Growth Rate Continue HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending December 3, 2010 WLI is 126.4 up from the prior week's revised lower reading of 125.3. (Last week we reported WLI was 125.4)

2010 Semiconductor Vendor Sales Ranking

2010-12-09T10:27:00.000-08:00

Top Ten Worldwide Semiconductor Vendors Preliminary Ranking by Estimated Revenue Rank2009 Rank 2010 Company 2009 Revenue US$M 2010 Revenue US$M 2009-2010 Growth (%) 2010 Market Share (%) 1 1 Intel 33,253 41,430 24.6 13.8 2 2 Samsung Electronics 17,686 28,256 59.8 9.4 3 3 Toshiba 9,604 12,376 28.9 4.1 4 4 Texas Instruments 9,142 12,356 35.2 4.1 11 5 Renesas Electronics* 4,542

CalPERS Aristocracy - Public Pension Reform Parody

2010-12-08T10:30:00.000-08:00

This wonderful video explains a big part of why California is going bankrupt with an estimated $25B budget deficit for the current fiscal year with revenue of roughly $83B. 2010-11 $20B Budget Shortfall$6.6 billion: Current budget year shortfall due to slow revenues and nearly $5 billion worth of federal and state court decisions that mandated spending on programs cut in the 09-10 budget. $12.3

ECRI's WLI Down but Growth Rate Higher

2010-12-03T09:32:00.000-08:00

ECRI's WLI Ticks Lower But WLI Growth Rate Continues HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending November 26, 2010 WLI is 125.4 down from the prior week's revised lower reading of 126.0. (Last week we

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2010-12-02T15:32:00.000-08:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2010 YTDWeekly Data for 12/1/2010 Equity Fund outflows $1.2 Bil Taxable Bond Fund outflows $0.525 Bil xETFs: Equity Fund outflows $1.1 Bil Taxable Bond Fund outflows $0.109 Bil See bottom for a table of current US Treasury rates. This table shows a summation of the weekly fund flow data. Money Market funds yield next to nothing so

ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth

2010-11-30T10:19:00.000-08:00

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, upgraded their projection for future economic growth. (More about ECRI) ECRI's managing director and cofounder, Lakshman Achuthan, was on CNBC yesterday to discuss their upgrade of their Oct 28, 2010 prediction "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen" to "There will be a revival

My 13 Favorite Investment Books - Holiday Gift Ideas

2010-11-27T07:42:00.000-08:00

I first published my list of favorite investment books in the mid 1990 shortly after I built my first personal web site on the free pages that came with my "netcom" account. I started with "Kirk's Investment Links" which listed my favorite investment sites. Shortly after I built "Kirk's Reading List." Over time, Netcom became Mindspring which became Earthlink but my web pages are still

ECRI's WLI Surges to Six Month High

2010-11-24T08:57:00.000-08:00

ECRI's WLI and WLI Growth Rate Continue HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending November 19, 2010 WLI is 126.4 up from the prior week's revised lower reading of 124.2. (Last week we reported WLI was

ECRI WLI Moves Higher; Growth Revival Ahead Says ECRI

2010-11-19T07:57:00.000-08:00

ECRI's WLI and WLI Growth Rate Continue HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending November 12, 2010 WLI is 124.3, up from the prior week's revised higher reading of 124.2. (Last week we reported WLI was

Kirk's DOW CLX Model with S&P500 Values

2010-11-17T15:59:00.000-08:00

Kirk's DOW CLX Model with S&P500 Values for Nov 17, 2010 For "Don's students of CLX," here is today's DOW CLX 10s and 30s plotted against the S&P500 back to July 2007.click for full size image Note how we have a potential convergence of the dashed black and pink support lines with the bottoming in the clx10 a day after options expiration Friday.If we get there and the phrase "hanging curve"

ECRI's WLI at 24-Week High - Bullish S&P500 Breakout

2010-11-12T09:20:00.000-08:00

ECRI's WLI and WLI Growth Rate Move HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending November 5, 2010 WLI is 123.9, up from the prior week's revised reading of 123.1. The lowest reading for WLI this year was

Jeremy Grantham'a Market Outlook - Investments For The Next Asset Bubble

2010-11-11T15:05:00.000-08:00

Jeremy Grantham'a Market Outlook - The Next Asset BubbleJeremy Grantham is Chairman of the Board of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), a Boston-based asset management firm with $107 billion under management as at December 2009. GMO is one of the largest investment firms in the World. He built his firm and reputation by correctly identifying the tech bubble of 2000 and the asset bubble of 2007.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data & Charts

2010-11-10T09:11:00.000-08:00

Investors Intelligence (II) Sentiment Survey Data and Graphs Data for November 10, 2010: Bulls = 48.4% Bears=23.1% More about Investors' Intelligence Bull Bear Survey My charts below showing the “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS and its moving averages currently say now is a good time for a market correction. On September 22, 2010 with the S&P500 (quote and charts) at 1,134 I wrote on

GeoGlobal GSPC Carried Interest Dispute Update

2010-11-09T07:58:00.000-08:00

This is an update on the "carried interest dispute" between GeoGlobal Resources (GGR Charts and current Quote) and the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation. Background: GeoGlobal Resources (Ticker GGR) is a Canadian based oil and natural gas exploration company listed on the American Stock Exchange. GSPC is Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation, a state owned oil company in India that had

Fund Flows: Equity, Bond & Money Market Yearly Totals

2010-11-06T08:23:00.000-07:00

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals & 2010 YTDWeekly 11/03/2010 Equity Fund Inflows $1 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $2.1 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund Inflows $1.2 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $1.9 Bil Fund Flow Totals for 2010 through 11/03/10 Table 1 AMG Fund Flows for Full Year - $B Fund Flows for Equity Tax Bond MM Fund 2003 40.8

ECRI's WLI Inches Higher Growth Rate Flat

2010-11-05T07:56:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Ticked Higher and its WLI Growth Rate is FlatThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending October 29, 2010 WLI is 123.2, up from the prior week's revised reading of 123.0. The lowest reading for WLI this

Series EE Bond Rates

2010-11-01T12:50:00.000-07:00

November 1, 2010 Series EE Bond Rate Announcement Today the Bureau of the Public Debt announced Series EE bonds issued from May 2010 through October 2010 will earn 0.60%. Historical Series EE Savings Bond Rates Series EE bonds issued since May 2005 are earning interest at a fixed rate, depending on the rate set when the bond was issued.Series EE bonds issued from May 1997 through April 2005

New 2010 I-Bond Rates: Nov 1 through April 30, 2011

2010-11-01T08:54:00.000-07:00

The Bureau of the Public Debt today announced an earnings rate of 0.74% for Series I Savings Bonds issued from November 1, 2010 through April 30, 2011. New Earning Rates for Older I-Bonds The earnings rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The 0.74% earnings rate for I bonds bought from

ECRI's WLI Growth Rate - No Double Dip Recession

2010-10-29T07:51:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI and its WLI Growth Rate Up Again. ECRI says the US Economy will Avoid a Double Dip Recession The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending October 22, 2010 WLI is 123.1, up from the prior week's

ECRI Warns of High Inflation Nightmare From QE2

2010-10-28T09:57:00.000-07:00

ECRI Warns The Fed's QE2 May Cause High Inflation NightmareThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, says there will be no double dip recession and Fed's planned QE2, a second round of quantitative easing, could lead to unintended "worse nightmare" of high inflation. (More about ECRI) Earlier today, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's co-founder and

iSuppli Updates 2010 & 2011 Chip Revenue Forecasts

2010-10-26T09:51:00.000-07:00

iSuppli Updates its 2010 and 2011 Chip Revenue ForecastsCurrent iSuppli global semiconductor revenue growth forecasts:2010: +32% 2011: +5.1% 21 Sept 2010: Key excerpts from the article on iSuppli's web site titled "Amid Softening Demand and Rising Inventory, iSuppli Trims 2010 Chip Forecast"iSuppli now expects that revenue in the fourth quarter will decline by 0.3 percent compared to the third

ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Up Again

2010-10-22T07:50:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Inched Lower but WLI Growth Rate Up AgainThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending October 15, 2010 WLI is 122.1, down from the prior week's reading of 122.2. The lowest reading for WLI this year

Flat COLA: No Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment for 2011

2010-10-16T10:34:00.000-07:00

There will be no fizz in Social Security checks for the new year. The Social Security Administration announced "There will be no increase in Social Security benefits payable in January 2011, nor will there be an increase in SSI payments."COLA ComputationThe last year in which a COLA became effective was 2008. Therefore the law requires that we use the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008

ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Inches Higher

2010-10-15T07:48:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Falls but WLI Growth Rate Up For Sixth Straight WeekThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending October 8, 2010 WLI is 122.4, down from the prior week's reading of 123.7. The lowest reading for WLI

Google Q3-2010 Earnings Announcement Press Release

2010-10-14T14:00:00.000-07:00

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. – October 14, 2010 - Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) today announced financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2010. "Google had an excellent quarter," said Eric Schmidt, CEO of Google. "Our core business grew very well, and our newer businesses -- particularly display and mobile -- continued to show significant momentum.

George Soros Market Outlook - Says End Bush Tax Cuts

2010-10-11T13:40:00.000-07:00

George Soros Expects Global SlowdownToday Maria Bartiromo interviewed George Soros on CNBC's "Closing Bell." Soros said he expects the global economic slowdown to continue into 2011 and we need more fiscal stimulus to avoid a second recession. He also thinks extending the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy is a mistake. Summary of his Key comments.The recession has been shorter and shallower than

ECRI WLI Growth Rate Up Again

2010-10-08T07:43:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Up & WLI Growth Rate Up For Fifth Straight WeekThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending October 1, 2010 WLI is 123.8, up from the prior week's reading of 122.5. The lowest reading for WLI this

Vanguard Lowers Admiral Shares Minimum to $10,000

2010-10-06T10:14:00.000-07:00

Vanguard Lowered Admiral Shares Minimum to $10,000 for Index Funds and $50,000 for Managed Funds. This is great news for Vanguard investors, especially those who follow my core portfolios made of Vanguard Index funds. Vanguard says: "If any of your current Vanguard fund holdings qualify, we'll notify you by mail and provide additional details about what this change means for you. Then, over the

ECRI WLI & Growth Rate Both Up Again

2010-10-01T07:45:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI & WLI Growth Rate Both UpThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending September 24, 2010 WLI is 122.5, up from the prior week's reading of 122.2. The lowest reading for WLI this year was 120.4 for

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals

2010-10-01T07:36:00.000-07:00

Money continues to pour into bond funds and out of money market funds while equity fund flows are still negative year-to-date. Annual data shown in table 1 below.Weekly 09/29/2010 Equity Fund inflows $0.319Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $3.2Bil xETFs - Equity Fund outflows $0.645Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $2.9 Bil Fund Flow Totals for 2010 through 9/29/10 Table 1 AMG Fund

John Paulson Market Outlook

2010-09-30T12:13:00.000-07:00

Paulson Says Sell Bonds then Buy Homes and Stocks because double digit inflation is on the way. John Paulson, the multibillionaire hedge fund operator who correctly called and profited from the collapse of the real estate bubble by shorting subprime mortgage debt, expects double digit inflation by 2012. His advice is to sell bonds and buy stocks, gold (Gold Quote and Charts) and real estate.

David Tepper Bullish

2010-09-27T07:54:00.000-07:00

David Tepper, president & founder of Appaloosa Management, says the downside is relatively small while the potential upside is large for the US stock markets. Video: Airtime: Fri. Sept. 24 2010 | 5:15 AM ET Runtime: 17 minutes Summary: Traders need economy to get going again. No big deal if FED has to do QE for awhile. Does not see a Japanese type scenario. Low rates save people on

ECRI's WLI Growth Rate Up - Premature to Predict New Recession

2010-09-24T07:49:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Down but WLI Growth Rate Continues HigherThe Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending September 17, 2010 WLI is 122.2, down from the prior week's reading of 122.6. The lowest reading for WLI this

Idea to Create Jobs

2010-09-17T09:33:00.000-07:00

Background: I read cash rich companies like Microsoft (MSFT Charts & Quote) and Cisco (CSCO charts and quote) are BORROWING BILLIONS of dollars to pay dividends and repurchase their stock because much of their cash is overseas. If they bring the cash back to the US to hire workers here, pay dividends or buy back their own stock, then they are taxed so it is cheaper for them to borrow the

ECRI WLI & Growth Rate Both Up Again

2010-09-17T08:18:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Up & WLI Growth Rate Ticks Up The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending September 10, 2010 WLI is 122.6, up from the prior week's reading of 120.0. The lowest reading for WLI this year was

Dow Gold Ratio - DJIA vs GLD

2010-09-13T08:41:00.000-07:00

Dow Gold Ratio Approaching 20-Year Lows. With the price of gold ($1,246.00) just below its recent all time high, the DOW:Gold ratio is approaching 20 year lows. At 8.40, the Dow Jones Industrial Average measured in how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the 30 stock DOW is up 19.5% from its 17-year March 6th, 2009 low of 7.03. Despite good gains for the DOW since March 2009, the

ECRI WLI & Growth Rate Both Up

2010-09-10T08:03:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Up & WLI Growth Rate Ticks Up The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending September 3, 2010 WLI is 122.0, up from the prior week's revised reading of 120.5. The lowest reading for WLI this year

FNSR: Analyst Summary for Finisar

2010-09-07T07:18:00.000-07:00

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR Charts), a global technology leader for subsystems and components for fiber optics communications, reported record results on Sept. 2. Jerry Rawls, Finisar's executive Chairman of the Board said "We achieved company records for revenues, gross margin, operating margin and EPS. Furthermore, the demand environment continued to be very strong for us, particularly

Open Gaps in S&P Futures

2010-09-06T23:26:00.000-07:00

Date: 05/03/10 O=1194.0 H=1196.8 L=1194.0 C=1194.1 Date: 05/13/10 O=1159.5 H=1167.0 L=1151.3 C=1152.5 Date: 08/10/10 O=1,115 H=1,124.5 L=1,108.5 C=1,119.7 ==>Current: as of Tuesday 9/10/10 1:13A CS 1,100.8<== Date: 08/31/10 O=1046.7 H=1052.5 L=1046.7 C=1052.5 Date: 09/02/10 O=1088.8 H=1090.3 L=1088.8 C=1090.0

Gartner Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Latest Prediction & History

2010-09-05T09:52:00.000-07:00

01 Sept 2010 [Predicts $314B for 2011] Worldwide semiconductor revenue in 2010 is forecast to reach $300 billion, a 31.5 per cent increase from 2009 revenue of $228 billion, according to the latest outlook by Gartner, Inc. Analysts project worldwide semiconductor revenue to total $314 billion in 2011, a 4.6 per cent increase from 2010. (press Release) [2010 actual tbd] 03 June 2010 [Predicts

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals

2010-09-02T08:47:00.000-07:00

Money continues to pour into bond funds and out of equities. This is the fourth week in a row and seven of the last ten weeks that money flowed out of equity funds. Annual data shown in table 1 below. Weekly 09/01/2010 Equity Fund outflows $5Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $1Bil xETFs - Equity Fund outflows $3.4 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $0.442 Bil Fund Flow Totals for 2010

ECRI WLI Update - Weekly Leading Index Data & GDP Growth

2010-08-27T07:51:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Up & WLI Growth Rate Up; GDP Growth Down The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending August 20, 2010 WLI stood at 120.9, upfrom the prior week's revised reading of 120.7. The lowest reading for

Equity, Bond & Money Market Fund Flows - Yearly Totals

2010-08-26T16:53:00.000-07:00

Money continues to pour into bond funds and out of equities. This is the fifth week in a row with positive (inflows) into low yielding money market funds. Annual data shown in table 1 below. Weekly 08/25/2010 Equity Fund outflows $4.6 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $3.9 Bil xETFs - Equity Fund outflows $1.4 Bil Taxable Bond Fund Inflows $2.9 Bil Fund Flow Totals for 2010 through 8/

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data & Graph

2010-08-25T09:55:00.000-07:00

Investors Intelligence Sentiment Survey Data and Chart One of the oldest weekly sentiment indicators is the “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS. A chart of the Investors’ Intelligence Survey (IIS) “Bulls over Bulls plus Bears” versus the market is a key sentiment tool for stock market technical analysis. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W. Cohen and has been published every week ever since.

Charles Neener Predicts DOW 5,000

2010-08-24T12:49:00.000-07:00

Charles Neener, former Goldman Sachs technical analyst, is on CNBC talking about his market advice. CNBC printed a summary of his past calls 2009: Dow 5,000 in 2 to 3 years Dec. 2008: Called for deflation in 2009 Early 2007: Called for DOW 14,500 Aug. 2006: Warned of "substantial drop" in housing market Summary of Current advice: DOW 5,000 in 2 to 3 years Deflationary crisis ahead

BTIG Fed Model With VIX Risk Adjustment

2010-08-24T10:33:00.000-07:00

This model was discussed in a very long but interesting article by Doug Kass posted on the Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Analysis forum at Silicon Investor. Kass makes two major points: #1 Kass is bullish now. Kass expects the market (S&P500 Quote and Charts) to trade between 1020 and 1150 (roughly between 11x and 13x 2011 S&P EPS forecasts). At 1075 "there is approximately 55 S&P points of

Fund Flows: Small Investors Flee Stocks For Bonds

2010-08-22T07:36:00.000-07:00

Yesterday's NY Times [Kindle Edition] article In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market is a MUST READ for all readers of Kirk's Market Thoughts. Excerpts and graph Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year... Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds. Bonds won't be "safe" if

ECRI WLI Update - Weekly Leading Index Data

2010-08-20T07:58:00.000-07:00

ECRI's WLI Down and WLI Growth Rate Up The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) this morning. (More about ECRI) For the week ending August 13, 2010 WLI stood at 120.8, down from the prior week's revised (lower) reading of 122.0. The lowest reading for

AAII Bull Bear Sentiment Graph for Aug 18, 2010

2010-08-19T07:33:00.000-07:00

AAII Bulls Minus Bears vs DJIA Survey Data and Graph for 8/18/2010 The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months . AAII is the "American Association of Individual Investors." For the survey, Individual members of the AAII are polled on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member