ECRI - No Recession Call Yet - Jury is Still Out

In this August 29, 2011 video interview ECRI's (The Economic Cycle Research Institute) Lakshman Achuthan explains why the jury is still out as to whether the cyclical (not transitory) slowdown will turn into a new recession.

For more information, read:

• More about ECRI
  
  
• June 3, 2011 "ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months"
• Nov 30, 2010 "ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth"
• Oct 28, 2010 "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen"
• Oct. 28, 2010 ECRI Warns of High Inflation Nightmare From QE2
• Sept. 24, 2010 ECRI - Premature to Predict New Recession
• July 01, 2010 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood
• Dec. 04, 2009: ECRI Warns of Lasting High Unemployment Despite Economic Recovery
• July 31, 2009: ECRI Predicts End of Home Price Downturn
• July 21, 2009:  ECRI Predicts The End of the Recession is Imminent
• April 3, 2009: ECRI Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
• March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

Click to order their book

Steve Jobs’s Resignation Letter to Apple

On August 23, 2011 after the stock market closed, Steve Jobs resigned as CEO of Apple (Apple charts and Quote) Inc. Apple's stock close Aug. 23 at $376.18. The next day, Apple stock opened at $365.08, down 2.95%.  Below is the Steve Job's letter to Apples board of directors. (Source Apple Press Info)

August 24, 2011

Letter from Steve Jobs

To the Apple Board of Directors and the Apple Community:

I have always said if there ever came a day when I could no longer meet my duties and expectations as Apple’s CEO, I would be the first to let you know. Unfortunately, that day has come.

I hereby resign as CEO of Apple. I would like to serve, if the Board sees fit, as Chairman of the Board, director and Apple employee.

As far as my successor goes, I strongly recommend that we execute our succession plan and name Tim Cook as CEO of Apple.

I believe Apple’s brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it. And I look forward to watching and contributing to its success in a new role.

I have made some of the best friends of my life at Apple, and I thank you all for the many years of being able to work alongside you.

Steve 

Here is a chart showing the performance of Apple's stock year-to-date. 

click chart for full size image 

More Apple Charts and a stock quote 

I'd like to wish Steve Jobs the best of luck in his new, reduced roll at Apple and hope his health improves so he can enjoy and long and happy life.

East Coast 5.9 Quake Details - Bush's Fault

Flash News. President Obama says the shaking on the East Coast today is Bush's FAULT!
(A little California humor I thought of myself!)

5.9 Mw - VIRGINIA

Preliminary Earthquake Report

Magnitude	5.9 Mw
Date-Time	23 Aug 2011 17:51:04 UTC 23 Aug 2011 13:51:04 near epicenter 23 Aug 2011 09:51:04 standard time in your timezone
Location	37.881N 77.952W
Depth	0 km
Distances	14 km (9 miles) SSW (195 degrees) of Mineral, VA 17 km (10 miles) SSE (165 degrees) of Louisa, VA 23 km (14 miles) NE (52 degrees) of Columbia, VA 58 km (36 miles) NW (312 degrees) of Richmond, VA 141 km (88 miles) SW (216 degrees) of Washington, DC
Location Uncertainty	Horizontal: 2.3 km; Vertical 3.1 km
Parameters	Nph = 23; Dmin = 50.0 km; Rmss = 0.44 seconds; Gp = 79° M-type = Mw; Version = B
Event ID	SE 082311a ***This event supersedes event USc0005ild.

For updates, maps, and technical information, see:
Event Page
or
USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
Southeast US Seismic Network
U.S. Geological Survey
University of Memphis

ECRI Can Not Rule Out 2012 Recession

In this July 29, 2011 video interview ECRI's (The Economic Cycle Research Institute) Lakshman Achuthan says the business cycle slowdown they predicted while others were calling for a second half recovery "persists through year-end.”   

• June 3, 2011 "ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months"
• More about ECRI

VIDEO

ECRI has not called for a recession but we do have a slowdown that makes the market more susceptible to a shock that can push the economy into a recession. Thus, they cannot rule out a 2012 recession.

• More about ECRI
  
• June 3, 2011 "ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months"
• Nov 30, 2010 "ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth"
• Oct 28, 2010 "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen"
• Oct. 28, 2010 ECRI Warns of High Inflation Nightmare From QE2
• Sept. 24, 2010 ECRI - Premature to Predict New Recession
• July 01, 2010 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood
• Dec. 04, 2009: ECRI Warns of Lasting High Unemployment Despite Economic Recovery
• July 31, 2009: ECRI Predicts End of Home Price Downturn
• July 21, 2009:  ECRI Predicts The End of the Recession is Imminent
• April 3, 2009: ECRI Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
• March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

Click to order

..

2011 Intraday "Correction" Statistics 08/04/11

Make sure you check out my:

• August 4 Chart of AAII Bulls-Bears Sentiment Indicator

S&P500 Data - More S&P500 Charts

Last Market High 05/02/11 at 1,370.58
Last Market low 08/04/11 at 1,199.54
Current S&P500 Price =  1,200.07
Decline in Points = 170.51
Decline in percent = 12.4%
Max Decline = 12.5% 

Since the decline in the S&P500 is less than 20% and the 50-DMA is still above the 200-DMA, it is still officially a correction in a bull market.

• This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 12.5% and we are currently 12.4% off the peak.
• The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 12.0% 

More S&P500 Charts & August 4 Chart of AAII Bulls-Bears Sentiment Indicator

Comments welcome on my facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term"