ECRI Stays with Recession Call

ECRI made the rounds last week explaining why they still believe we are in a recession.  Below is a summary   from Sam of their appearances.

Interview Summary 
In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. 

CNBC

• Coincident indicators, including GDP, are consistent with recession starting mid 2012
• Stock prices can rise during recession
• Policy makers targeting market prices
• Mild vs. severe recession

Bloomberg Part 1

• The Fed's recessionary stall speed measure stalled in 2012
• Year-over year jobs growth is slowing, not accelerating
• Nominal GDP growth recessionary
• ECRI April home price growth upturn call & recent Leading Home Price Index decline 

Bloomberg Part 2

• Stocks prices and recessions
• Fed targeting financial assets, including 401(k)s
• Plunging velocity of money since 2011
• ECRI April home price upturn call, and recent Leading Home Price Index decline 

Yahoo Finance

• Weak incomes and recession
• Stock prices have risen during three of the past 15 past recessions
• The difficulty of “real-time” recognition of recession