Kirk's Investor Sentiment Charts & Data

  🐂📈Kirk Lindstrom's Investor Bull/Bear Sentiment Charts for 3/23/23 📉🐻

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II Investors Intelligence & AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Sentiment Updates

II Bulls and Bears Sentiment Graphs

• % Bulls = 39.7
• % Bears = 28.8
• % Bulls minus % Bears = 10.9%
• % Bulls / (% Bulls +% Bears) = 58.0

Click charts to view full size

AAII Bulls and Bears Sentiment Graphs: The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months.

As of   3/23/23, the AAII members are:

1. Bullish: 20.9%
2. Neutral: 48.9%
3. Bearish: 30.2%
4. Current Data from https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey 

More: Bradley Turn Dates for First Half of 2023  

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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Market Update

 Market Update for Friday March 10, 2023

Negatives this week were

• President Biden's budget proposal to tax billionaire wealth at 25% a year.  To pay this excessive tax, billionaires would have to sell 25% of their stock each year to raise the funds. This selling would cause their stock prices to crash and hurt public and private pension funds that own stocks to pay retired workers.  Nobody with a clue believe this will reach debate level in the GOP controlled House of Representatives, much less pass in a vote, so why waste our time other than create further political divide?
• The Failure of The Silicon Valley Bank that has backed most startups here in the Silicon Valley and I've been told many wineries, restaurants and small businesses in Napa County, California as the VCs look to diversify their holdings. See my article "SIVB Silicon Valley Bank Fails - FDIC Steps In"
• The war in Ukraine continues after a full year with no end in sight.  As a taxpayer, it feels like we are burning money to benefit arms dealers (yes, US companies that make arms) rather than forcing the two sides to sit down and settle things.

US Stock Markets (Log Scale) vs. Fed Funds Rate 

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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SIVB Silicon Valley Bank Fails - FDIC Steps In

SIVB Fails.  This is quite the story of a bank failure (taken over by "regulators" aka FDIC.)   In a nutshell they needed to raise funds to meet withdrawals from customers wanting some of their funds on deposit to buy higher yielding US treasuries or even money funds at brokers paying well over 4%.  To raise the funds, they had to sell some of their own US treasury portfolio at a loss because they bought those bonds when rates were low and they were paying next to nothing on deposits.   

From FDIC Press Release:  FDIC Creates a Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara to Protect Insured Depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California

WASHINGTON – Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, was closed today by the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect insured depositors, the FDIC created the Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara (DINB). At the time of closing, the FDIC as receiver immediately transferred to the DINB all insured deposits of Silicon Valley Bank.

All insured depositors will have full access to their insured deposits no later than Monday morning, March 13, 2023. The FDIC will pay uninsured depositors an advance dividend within the next week. Uninsured depositors will receive a receivership certificate for the remaining amount of their uninsured funds. As the FDIC sells the assets of Silicon Valley Bank, future dividend payments may be made to uninsured depositors.

Silicon Valley Bank had 17 branches in California and Massachusetts. The main office and all branches of Silicon Valley Bank will reopen on Monday, March 13, 2023. The DINB will maintain Silicon Valley Bank’s normal business hours. Banking activities will resume no later than Monday, March 13, including on-line banking and other services. Silicon Valley Bank’s official checks will continue to clear. Under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, the FDIC may create a DINB to ensure that customers have continued access to their insured funds.

As of December 31, 2022, Silicon Valley Bank had approximately $209.0 billion in total assets and about $175.4 billion in total deposits. At the time of closing, the amount of deposits in excess of the insurance limits was undetermined. The amount of uninsured deposits will be determined once the FDIC obtains additional information from the bank and customers.

Customers with accounts in excess of $250,000 should contact the FDIC toll-free at 1-866-799-0959.

The FDIC as receiver will retain all the assets from Silicon Valley Bank for later disposition. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

Silicon Valley Bank is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail this year. The last FDIC-insured institution to close was Almena State Bank, Almena, Kansas, on October 23, 2020.

The problem is after the Fed raised rates so quickly, assets held in longer term, low yield US Treasuries when "marked to market" are worth much less now.  IF held to term, US Treasury holders will get their money back plus interest but if they need the money now, such as meeting depositors removing their liquid cash to get CA tax free, higher yield US treasuries from a broker or directly from the US treasury, then they are sold at a loss.

My Facebook Discussion: Silicon Valley Bank collapses after failing to raise capital

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

To see what stocks and ETFs are in my "Explore Portfolio" and get a full list of on my price targets to both take profits or buy more:

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SPY Declines by Year Since 2007

 SPY (Live SPY charts) Bear Markets and Intraday Corrections since 2007 Market Peak

This current decline, if over, just slightly exceeded the biggest decline in 2021!

After the 2007 to 2009 bear market, I started tracking SPY for my newsletter so I can quickly see returns with and without reinvested dividends using charting services that show returns with and without reinvested dividends.

Live SPY charts

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

To see what stocks and ETFs are in my "Explore Portfolio" and get a full list of on my price targets to both take profits or buy more:

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the February 2023 Issue for FREE!!! 
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Kirk's Dow vs Oscillators Graphs

 Kirk's Graphs of DJIA vs Oscillators for 3/2/23

Click graphs for full size images

A few other timing charts

CPC Charts:

More Sentiment Information : Sentiment charts are covered on page 6 of my newsletter with updates during the year for what the different types of sentiment charts mean to me. This blog is an easy place to give my subscribers updates of charts too numerous to add each month to the newsletter but they might find worthwhile. And for others... they can window shop or ignore as it suits them.

Bradley Bradley Siderograph:

• Bradley Turn Dates for First Half of 2023  

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

To see what stocks and ETFs are in my portfolio and get a full list of on my price targets to both take profits or buy more:

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the February 2023 Issue for FREE!!! 
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Reminder, you can subscribe to this feed for free to get sent emails by Google when I post new charts and articles. Just click "Follow" below.