Kirk's Investor Sentiment & Other Charts

Market Sentiment Update 

Investors Intelligence Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) & S&P 500 Weekly  -  5/23/24

AAII Survey: Bulls minus Bears vs. Log DJIA - 1988 to Today

US Stock Markets (Log Scale) vs. Fed Funds Rate 

10-Yr & 30-Yr T-Bond Rates vs S&P 500

CPC Put Call Ratio 

Fear and Greed Index @ 59

From https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

NAAIM EXPOSURE INDEX = 89.25: 

• The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members.
• https://naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

2CS-p = 90.3 VERY high:  

Invented by Tom Drake, the 2CS-p is the "5 day moving average of the product of the vix and p/c ratio."   The scale runs from 0 to 100% with 0% max bullishness and 100% max bearish reading for us contrarians.

For more on investor sentiment and what it means to me, read my newsletter where 

• Page 6 is dedicated to a monthly update on sentiment.
• Page 12 summarizes sentiment and how it relates to five other "Market Factors" I follow.

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Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter: To see what stocks and ETFs are in my "Explore Portfolio" and get a full list of on my price targets to both take profits or buy more

Excerpt from my May 2024 Newsletter:

This is not an “exact science” so “all or nothing” market timing is foolish.

Market Timing Disclaimer: No sentiment indicator, or any indicator for that matter, is 100% reliable. I look at sentiment as head winds and tail winds. When sentiment is terrible, then it acts like a tail wind for your returns where you could see further declines, but long term, it is best to be buying when most others are selling. Likewise, if we see sentiment get too bullish, then I would consider lowering my portfolio asset allocation. It seldom pays to be buying stocks when EVERYONE is talking about stocks and how much money they are making at cocktail parties.

In addition, I am not market timing but for a small portion of my Explore Portfolio. I use market-timing indicators to tell me it is a good time to buy so I can add to positions when the market is down and thus help me overcome my fear to rebalance back to my target asset allocation. Likewise, when the market-timing indicators are saying to sell, they usually come when the markets are high where I want to be taking profits. The market timing indicators at market highs help me get over my greed and take profits.