Is This a New Bull Market or Bear Market Rally?

The rally since the Christmas bear market lows has been large and fast.  

The question all want to know and that gets extensive debate on message board is: 

Is this a new bull market that will make new highs soon or are we in a bear market rally that will roll over soon and lead us to new lows?

While the major indexes are still down 6.4% to 13.5% from their 2018 record highs, they are up between 7.6% and 11.7% already this year.

All four hourly index charts above show that indexes rallied above an "inverted head and shoulder bottom pattern" then pulled back this week to test that breakout or neckline from above.  If that neckline holds and the indexes continue to rally higher, then the odds favor new highs for most of the indexes.  The green line with an arrow head on the Russell 2000 chart shows the target of the pattern is below its 2018 high while the Dow pattern has a target of a new high.

My Explore Portfolio made several record highs before pulling back slightly Friday.  It really helped to be taking profits last year when the market was at record highs then buying stocks near the Christmas Bear Market Lows.  The types of stocks in my Explore Portfolio usually lead out of bear market bottoms and now is no exception so this is also bullish.

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This "Andrew's Pitchfork" chart of the S&P 500 show two possible scenarios.

1. The red "bearish pitchfork" suggests the rally is over or nearly over while 
2. the green "bullish pitchfork" suggests the rally is only about half way to its peak.

Only time will tell since nobody knows for sure what the markets will do in the short term.  I've taken some profits on what I bought near the lows last year so I have plenty of cash to buy if the markets test their Christmas lows or even go lower.  Also, I have plenty in the market and will just take more profits if the markets continue high.  As my results from on the record for over 20 years show, I don't need to be "right" about the short term market direction as my method works best with some volatility.

To understand more, please read these KEY articles:

• Make Money In A Flat Market With Asset Allocation & Market Volatility
• Winning the Zigs, losing on the Zags - Why small investors usually do poorly
• Be Your Own Financial Advisor - Save The High Fees!

Discuss this article on my "Investing for the long term" Facebook group. 

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New Record Closing Highs For Nasdaq & S&P500

Today the Nasdaq and the S&P500 indexes closed at new record highs.

The S&P500 closed at a record high that broke the last record closing high set on March 1, 2017 at $2,395.96 when all four major indexes I follow closed at record highs.

All four indexes set record highs on March 1, 2017.  :

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 failed to surpass its record high of 2400.98 by a whisker:

Treasury bonds still have very low yields on an historical basis.  This chart shows US Treasury rates and the Federal Reserve's Fed Fund's Rate back to 1993.

My "Explore Portfolio" also closed at a new record high today!

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May Day Marks a Record High for the Nasdaq and My Explore Portfolio

New record highs were made today for the Nasdaq and my Explore Portfolio.

Most other markets are less than 1% from their record highs also.

Of course, I've been taking profits as my stocks make record highs and have bought back shares in a few that are "out of sync" and in correction mode as investors are chasing large cap Nasdaq names.

My hybrid 2CS model is suggesting caution soon.... Do you have your list of stocks to buy or add to when the market corrects?

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My Core and Explore Performance vs Warren Buffett's BRKA:

New Record Nasdaq High - First New High in over 15 Years!

Today the Nasdaq stock market made a new, record, intraday high which eclipsed its prior record high of 5132.52, a record that had stood for over 15 years! (Click charts to view full size)

Click charts to view full size

The Dow and the S&P500 set new records long ago as these two charts below clearly show.

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