Sy Harding - RIP

This sad news report (text below) was sent to me by a reader and confirmed just now on Sy Harding's Website (Update on Sy.)

As most of you are aware, Sy was stricken by a sudden illness at the beginning of the month. He was in Intensive Care for over three weeks and for that entire time, the family was told that he would be able to make a full recovery. However, it is with heavy hearts that we must announce that Sy has passed away. Unfortunately, complications arose and his condition regressed rapidly in his final 48 hours and the doctors were not able to save him.

Sy started giving investment advice to the public some 27 years ago. It was his life and his passion. Not a day went by that he wasn’t thinking about how he could help others increase profits or reduce risk. He was a private man who had always declined the numerous requests for television and radio interviews. His voice was his written word. He simply loved writing. He loved researching ideas and formulating them into insightful commentary that would both educate and open one’s mind to seeing things in different ways. He was contrarian by nature. He always felt that if the crowd was going in one direction, he should look in a different direction to see what they were missing. This philosophy has served him well over the years and is one of the reasons technical analysis appealed to him. Quite often the charts would show when too many people were thinking one way and the markets were due for a reversal.

Sy was a devoted family man. He was always there to help and put his family’s needs before his own. He could always be found at his children’s and grandchildren’s sporting events, dance recitals and special functions. Most of his family has worked with him at one point or another. It was always amazing to see his work ethic and desire to succeed, but never at the expense of others. His honesty and integrity were evident to all who knew him.

Sy’s passing was very sudden and unexpected and as a result we are busy formulating a plan to determine the best course of action going forward. We will do our best to provide information and answers via email if you have questions, but honestly, with Sy’s remarkably good health, this is not something for which we had planned.

We want to thank you for the many thoughts and prayers we have received during Sy’s illness, from both long term and more recent subscribers. It shows that you thought of him as more than just a newsletter writer. You got to know him through his writing and he got to know many of you over the years. It was that kind of sentiment that kept him going, trying his hardest to provide the best advice he could. Thank you again for your support through this difficult time.

Sy Harding's Final Tweet

My subscriber said it well in the email, "Sad news.  Another reminder of how life can change so suddenly.  "

Sy Harding's

• S&P500 Chart with Sy Harding's STS - "Sell in May" Signal
• Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy
• Twitter feed
• Sy Harding Obituary - Daytona Beach, FL

Sy Harding STS Unfavorable (Sell in May) Season Starts Today

According to Sy Harding, author of Seasonal Timing Strategy™ (STS), "Riding the Bear" and "The Street Smart Report," now is the time to watch the MACD indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." 

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

Harding applies the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or MACD, to the S&P500 after the average best time to leave the market, April 20, following the "sell in May and Go away" strategy. Likewise, around the best days on average to enter the market, October 16, Harding's STS looks for positive MACD to enter the market again. For more information, see Sy Harding and his "Seasonal Timing Strategy" STS Sy Harding's Book: Beat the Market the Easy Way!

STS Unfavorable (Sell in May) Season Starts Tomorrow - April 20

According to Sy Harding, author of Seasonal Timing Strategy™ (STS), "Riding the Bear" and "The Street Smart Report," now is the time to watch the MACD indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." I

If the market closes down today, as it was when I made this chart, then it could signal an "STS Sell" for tomorrow.

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

Harding applies the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or MACD, to the S&P500 after the average best time to leave the market, April 20, following the "sell in May and Go away" strategy. Likewise, around the best days on average to enter the market, October 16, Harding's STS looks for positive MACD to enter the market again.

Currently the MACD is positive with the MACD signal line above its EMA(9) line. You can watch the chart here to see when this signal goes negative.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
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For more information, see

• Sy Harding and his "Seasonal Timing Strategy" STS

Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy: 2009 STS Signals

Today, October 16, is the average best day to enter the stock market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." Sy Harding applies his own special twist to the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy" which he calls his "Seasonal Timing Strategy" or STS for short.

This system has worked well in past years, but followers this year missed a gain of 29.9% by being in low yielding cash. One can only hope they were not short the market!

For more, see Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy

Harding applies the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator, or MACD, to the S&P500 after the average best time to enter the market, October 16, following the "sell in May and Go away" strategy. According to Harding, if a rally is underway and the MACD is positive, then STS gives a "Buy Signal" to enter the market on October 16th.

The MACD is positive so followers of Sy Harding should have bought at the open of 1,094.67 today.

Click image to view full sized

Harding writes:

The idea is that if a rally is underway when the October 16 calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, as indicated by the MACD indicator, we will enter at that time. However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway, it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the best average calendar entry date has arrived. Instead, our Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives its next buy signal, indicating that the decline has ended.

Sy Harding will use the same indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market when the MACD gives a sell signal any time after April 20.

2008 signals (S&P500)

• Sell onMay 9 at 1395
• Buy on October 29 at 939.51

2009 Signals (S&P500)

• Sell on April 23 at 842.62
• Buy on October 16 at 1,094.67
  (up 252.05 points or up 29.9%)
  

For more, see

• Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS)
  
  
• Sy Harding's S&P500 MACD Charts
  
  
• More S&P500 Charts
  
  
• "Investing for the Long Term" facebook forum "Sy Harding - Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS)"

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., DeLand, FL, publisher of The Street Smart Report. This article is my "interpretation" of public information posted by Sy Harding. Harding may have changed his formulas and not written about it while keeping the old info on his web site which you would only know for sure by subscribing to his service.

Other key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis include:

• AAII: American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Index: AAII Charts and Info
• II-BBS: Investors’ Intelligence Bull Bear survey: II Charts and Info
• ISE (International Securities Exchange) Sentiment Index: ISE Charts and Info
• State Street Investor Confidence Index State Street Charts and Info

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 154% (a double plus another 54% !) vs. the S&P500 UP at tiny 5.8% vs. NASDAQ down 0.9% (All through 10/14/09)

(More Info & FREE Sample Issue)

As of October 14, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 30.7% YTD vs. DJIA up 14.1% YTD

Subscribe NOW and get the October 2009 Issue for FREE! !
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Investor Sentiment Has Sy Harding Optimistic

Yesterday Sy Harding, president of Asset Management Research Corp. and editor of Sy Harding’s Street Smart Report, wrote an article at Stockhouse called "Investor sentiment suggests stocks may see better days soon." He says the six straight months of declines is worse than the 1930s! Harding's key reasons to be optimistic for a rally are the major sentiment indicators are near record lows, giving perhaps a "buy when there is blood in the streets" signal.

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence:

The University of Michigan reported this week that its Consumer Confidence Index declined from its extremely low level of 61.2 in January, to 56.0 in February. That’s almost at its record low, which was recorded in 1980, when the economy was struggling to come out of the deplorable 1970’s plunging economy and spiraling inflation (stagflation). The confidence index dates back to 1952, so if it’s almost at its record low, consumer confidence is currently lower than it was in the severe recessions of 1981-82 and 1973-74.

AAII: American Association of Individual Investors:

... the poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors is considered to be at extreme pessimism whenever the poll shows bearishness has risen to more than 55%, and bullishness has dropped below 25%. In last week’s poll bearishness had risen to 56.7% bearish, and bullishness had dropped to only 21.7%, and in this week’s poll 55.1% were bearish, only 24.3% bullish.

VIX: CBOE Volatility Index:

"...the VIX Index, also known as the Fear Index, is currently showing a considerably higher level of investor fear than at the bottom of any of the legs down in the 2000-2002 bear market."

The Media:

So far the media is laughing at the new attempts to insert some optimism into the mix.

Harding concludes:

But, these are ‘blood in the streets times’, when historically extremes of pessimism do reverse, at least temporarily. And after a record six straight months down investors deserve a respite.

More information

• Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy(STS) Explained
  
  
• October 29, 2008: Sy Harding's MACD Seasonal Buy Signal

Read and Post Comments

Sy Harding's MACD Seasonal Buy Signal

Yesterday the MACD for the S&P500 turned positive for a Sy Harding Buy Signal. (See Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy.) The MACD is the "special sauce" that Sy Harding applies to his variation of the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy" which he calls his "Seasonal Timing Strategy" or STS for short.

STS worked great this year getting out of the market in the Spring around 1400 and getting back in now at about 939, 33% lower! If the market recovers to 1400, Harding's STS will have made an incredible 49% more than buy and hold!

Click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com to see full size image

Sy waits for the MACD to turn positive after October 16, the average best day to enter the stock market based on the "Seasons in the Sun Strategy." Harding writes:

The idea is that if a rally is underway when the October 16 calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, as indicated by the MACD indicator, we will enter at that time. However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway, it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the best average calendar entry date has arrived. Instead, our Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives its next buy signal, indicating that the decline has ended.

Sy will use the same indicator to look for the favorable exit point from the market when the MACD gives a sell signal any time after April 20.

For more, see

• Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS)
  
  
• Sy Harding's S&P500 MACD Charts

Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp., DeLand, FL, publisher of The Street Smart Report. This article is my "interpretation" of public information posted by Sy Harding. Harding may have changed his formulas and not written about it while keeping the old info on his web site which you would only know for sure by subscribing to his service.

Other key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis include:

• AAII: American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Index: AAII Charts and Info
• II-BBS: Investors’ Intelligence Bull Bear survey: II Charts and Info
• ISE (International Securities Exchange) Sentiment Index: ISE Charts and Info
• State Street Investor Confidence Index State Street Charts and Info

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11/01/08 Update: A reader told me via email that Sy Harding uses weekly MACD signals (not daily) according to some "experts" posting on discussion forums. This is not true if you believe Sy Harding's own web site which says:

What is the formula for MACD?

MACD as we use it is plotted as follows: Using the daily closing prices of the index or security you want to plot MACD on, subtract the value of a 26 day exponential moving average of the closes, from a 12 day exponential moving average of the closes. That produces the solid indicator line. Then plot a 9 day exponential m.a. of the indicator line, and display it on top of the solid indicator line as a dotted or different color line, so you can tell the two apart. The dotted line is known as the signal line. When the solid line crosses the dotted line to the downside it produces a sell signal. When the solid line crosses the dotted line to the upside it produces a buy signal.

If you use weekly data rather than daily data, or assuming you're doing this via computer, simply compress the daily data by a factor of 5, you will change the short term MACD indicator to an intermediate term MACD indicator. Only the short term version is usable with the Seasonal Timing System.

I back tested my formulas (I have an account at Stockcharts.com) with the charts Sy Harding shows for his STS for 1997 and 1998. The signals my formulas generated match Harding's published buy and sell points exactly.

You can watch the weekly MACD here for free.

Bottom line: Beware what you read on discussion forums. If people can't present the math or formulas to back what they are saying, then proceed with extreme caution!

See Sy Harding: Seasonal Timing Strategy for more information.
.

Sy Harding May Not Go Away Just Yet

Sy Harding, editor of a newsletter called "Sy Harding's Street Smart Report", uses a technical indicator called MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) in an attempt to improve on the "Seasons in the Sun" timing system often called "Sell in May and Go Away."

Seasonal timing has followers out of the market on May 1 (May Day) with a return to fully invested date of October 31, Halloween.

Since Mid 2002 through April 29, 2008, Mark Hulbert calculates the following annualized returns:

• Halloween Indicator = 4.5%


• Sy Hardings MACD = 8.7%


• Buy-and-hold Wilshire 5000 = 7.5%

Mark Hulbert wrote of Sy's success:

• "The Hulbert Financial Digest has been tracking, since May 31, 2002, Harding's record in deviating from the strict version of the Halloween Indicator, and on average he has done markedly better."


• "To put Harding's success into context, consider that since mid-2002, a buy-and-hold in the stock market has produced a 7.5% annualized return (through April 29). A purely mechanical application of the Halloween Indicator (automatically entering the market on Halloween and exiting on May Day) would have produced a 4.5% annualized return."
  
• "Harding's modification of the Halloween Indicator: It produced an 8.7% return (annualized) over the same period, or 4.2 percentage points per year better than a purely mechanical application of this seasonal pattern -- and 1.2 annualized percentage points better than buying and holding. "

Harding now says "the exit [from the market pursuant to the Halloween Indicator] could be delayed to as late as May or June if the market's rally off its early March low continues."

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal

Members of our "Investing for the Long Term" discussion forum report Sy Harding's model has a MACD buy signal for the US Stock Markets.

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal

The MACD for the S&P500 has turned positive and members of our "Sy Harding Discussion Forum" at the facebook group "Investing for the Long Term" have said it was the "Seasons in the Sun Signal" to return to the US stock markets after getting out in May. There has been no confirmation if Sy Harding has actually issued a buy signal as rumors of a "second model" have appeared.

Request Invitation to FREE facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term."

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Market Timer Sy Harding Favors Subprime Loan Bank Bailout

In an article this Sunday, Sy Harding said he favors a bailout of the banking system to prevent the economy from falling into even deeper trouble.

Sy makes a good point that a government bailout now will benefit everyone, not just the banks and risk takers:

"It's not even just the banks and the hapless homeowners who will lose their homes. It will be everyone. Think deep recession because a banking system on which business depends is barely operating. Everyone would suffer."

Sy reminds us that this would not be the first time taxpayers have come to the rescue of risk takers who lost.

"In the early 1990s, greed and foolishness got the banks in trouble again, resulting in the scandals and losses surrounding the infamous savings & loan collapse. Congress formed the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC), which protected bank depositors by taking over or closing more than a thousand S&Ls and failed commercial banks, at a cost to taxpayers estimated to be more than $600 billion.

The current situation is just as serious."

As a fiscal conservative who is a registered Libertarian, I hate to see the government bailout people who make bad choices at the expense of those who make responsible choices. But Sy Harding makes some very valid points that a collapse of our financial institutions won't do anyone any good. I believe those permabears who are short the stocks and negative on the US will speak loudly against this bailout, but we need to remember they are "talking their positions" with little interest in what is best for everyone.

Sy Harding MACD Buy Signal

On a seperate note, the MACD for the S&P500 has turned positive and members of our "Sy Harding Discussion Forum" at the facebook group "Investing for the Long Term" have said it was the "Seasons in the Sun Signal" to return to the US stock markets after getting out in May.