FNSR Finisar VCSELs - A Billion Dollar Opportunity With Apple's Investment to Speed it Along

Finisar (FNSR charts) VCSELs represent a ONE Billion Dollar opportunity now backed by Apple's (AAPL) investment to speed it along.

Loading up during this period of weakness, especially while under $20, worked out great for me and my subscribers! 

It is nice when one sends an email from his phone when the market opened saying he's pleased with the buy at $17.55 earlier this month (when I had a buy at $17.50 that I used cash in my ROTH to fund.) 

From Apple: Apple awards Finisar $390 million from its Advanced Manufacturing Fund

• Award Will Create 500 High-Skill Jobs at Sherman, Texas Facility
• “VCSELs power some of the most sophisticated technology we’ve ever developed and we’re thrilled to partner with Finisar over the next several years to push the boundaries of VCSEL technology and the applications they enable,” said Jeff Williams, Apple’s chief operating officer. “Technology is only as good as the people behind it, and Finisar is a company with a long history of putting its employees first and supporting the community it’s a part of. We’re extremely proud that our involvement will help transform another American community into a manufacturing powerhouse.”

This is a very similar deal to how Apple gives money to Foxcon to make their iPhones. 

To me, I believe Apple wanted a PR win with President Trump to show it is investing in manufacturing in the US and not just China.

Finisar is building in Texas to keep the technology in the US but in a low tax state not in the Silicon Valley where its headquarters is located.  If CA didn't have such high taxes, we might see this plant built up near Redding CA, just below the Shasta Dam where getting low cost renewable electricity would be easier than in Texas.

Market measured in Billions of Dollars:

Simon Leopold - with Raymond James:

The other thing I wanted to ask about is really from an industry perspective, your view of the addressable opportunity for the 3D sensing. So, not specific to what you think you are necessarily going ship but help us understand how you are sizing the market opportunity in 2018? And presumably, I want to ask about 2019, since given the timing of the ramp of the new facility, I have to imagine you are thinking about 2019 already.

Jerry Rawls - Finisar Chairman and CEO:

3D sensing is essentially gigantic. If all the customers and the consumer space and the automotive space really build systems and deploy them as they are -- they have indicated to us recently, then, no matter how big this building is that we just bought, and fill it full of equipment, it’s unlikely that we can supply all of the demand that we’ll need to supply. So, I mean, it’s measured in billions of dollars and it’s really hard to project today that how many of these applications are people really going to field. But, I’ll just tell you, we are building arrays for a lot of different people in both mobile and in automotive, some of them are quite small arrays and some of them are gigantic arrays, so.

Source:  Dec. 7th Earnings Conference Call Transcript

Recent (earlier this month) emailed BUY ALERT to subscribers:

My best buy was near the very bottom of the worst bear market since the Great Depression:

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Update 12/13/17 at 11:38AM PST:  SEC FORM 8-K

Item 8.01 Other Events. Questions have arisen regarding news reports of Apple Inc.’s (“Apple”) announcement this morning regarding a $390 million award to Finisar Corporation (“Finisar”). Apple has not made a debt or equity investment in Finisar. The amount referred to by Apple represents anticipated future business between the companies over a period of time.

During Market Turbulence Diversification Works!

Yesterday a subscriber who's worked to get a better asset allocation for her age (after subscribing to my newsletter 2.5 yrs ago in early 2015) was worried about the market and current events sent me this short email.

On 9/5/2017 5:16 PM, RH wrote: 

Hi Kirk;  

The market really looks like it tanked today, right?

OMG, I never really know what to do with next step……

I try to answer all emails, even if they don't have a specific question as I see part of my "service" is to reassure subscribers when they are worried.

Here is part of my reply (removing some personal details for this "edited" reply.)

Remember, one reason we took so many profits and diversified from US stocks that were way up to add to international stocks and build cash is the market often goes down.  You have a LOT of cash now (50:50 conservative asset allocation) so if the market goes down by 10 or 20%, then you could put some of it to work buying stocks at sale prices.

With:

• an H-bomb tested by the nut in N. Korea plus
• Hurricane Harvey left hundreds of thousands with huge storm damage in Texas
• Hurricane Irma is heading towards Florida and it could be even bigger
• Tropical storm Jose is following Irma and could hit either areas just as they start to recover..... 

yet the stock market was only off about 3% at the low!  Stocks like Finisar and GE really suffered but others that investors love, including Emerging markets (VWO) that we recently bought at much lower prices, continue to do well. 

So... remember that your asset allocation is much better now even with the stock market near record highs!  You've done the work to be ready for a big decline.... yet if the market continues to chug higher, you have enough in to do really well too!

On 9/6/2017 10:24 AM, RH wrote: 

You somehow know me well and give me peace of mind.

Thank you ever so much.

Nobody likes to see stocks they own go down but with proper asset allocation and diversification, big declines are great opportunities to increase your overall market return.

Lets say you retire with a $1,000,000 investment portfolio.  To sleep well at night you put half into fixed income and half into stocks according to my "Conservative Core Portfolio."  If the stock market drops 50%, which is has twice since the year 2000, then you would have roughly $750,000 and probably more because your fixed income on the conservative side of the portfolio would continue higher and your stock portfolio (ETFs or individual stocks) would continue to pay dividends.  

I'd use the 50% bear market to significantly add stocks to my Explore Portfolio (as I did during both bear markets.)  I would also do a MINIMUM of one portfolio reallocation from fixed income to stocks at the end of the year if stocks were still down just as last January I moved a great deal of cash out of markets that were way up in the Core Portfolios to fixed income to lock in gains.

If you need references to verify I took profits when the markets were up and bought when they were down to get the returns I post, then I am happy to provide them.  It blows me away that so many sell their newsletter services and don't provide simple return tables and graphs like I do below.  That is a RED FLAG WARNING about what they sell.

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VWO Buy Alert Sent via Email

VWO Today 

-end-

Good News for Intel Stock - End of Inventory Correction

End of Inventory Correction is Good News for Intel Stock 

Intel (INTC Charts & Quote) has been in a bear market since the start of the year as it fell by 33% from $37.05 to the recent "Flash Crash Low" of $24.87.  Even though I own some shares dating back to my first purchase in 1993 when Intel was under $3, I feel very "Lucky" to have purchased more shares at $25 using money from taking profits when Intel was in the $30s. 

During the mini "Flash Crash" on August 24, 2015 I got some shares of Intel for $25.00 using a "Buy Limit Order" I had placed some time ago just for for this sort of event.  At $28.41 today, Intel is up 14% already.

Today we learned the good news that has helped Intel do much better than the market recently.

Inventory adjustments in semi industry coming to an end, says TSMC executive
Josephine Lien, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 2 September 2015]

• The recent inventory adjustments in the semiconductor industry have nearly come to an end, and the possibility is high for the industry to swing back to a seasonal growth cycle shortly, according to George Liu, director of sensor and driver business development at TSMC.
• Companies and market analysts have been revising their outlook for the 2015 semiconductor market growth, due to weak market demand resulting in higher-than-expected inventory levels in the industry. Nevertheless, chipmakers are about to finish clearing out their excess inventory, said Liu.
• From a long-term perspective, the semiconductor market will continue to expand along with the global economy and the ever-evolving consumer electronics market, Liu noted.
• In addition, Liu suggested that it is premature to conclude that the global smartphone market growth has begun to slow. 

My guess is Intel was down with all US stocks as people were selling everything on August 24th and August 25th.  Some speculation was people had to sell good stocks like Intel to meet margin calls due to share prices tumbling in Asia, particularly Chinese stocks.



Using Auto Buy Limit Orders listed on the "Auto Buy/Sell List" on page five of my newsletter, we actually got one stock, FNSR (FNSR Charts & Quote), below the limit order buy price because the market gapped down on the open to fill our orders!  Below is an excerpt from what I sent my subscribers shortly after adding more Finisar shares to our portfolio. (Note, we also added Intel)

You hate to see people lose money, but I sure like the opportunity to buy their stocks at great prices when they are too scared to hold them.  Of course, I'll be happy to sell these shares to them when they are more excited about the future and the stock prices are much, much higher.

Market Update - August 29, 2015

The last 13 days have been a roller coaster ride for the US stock markets.

Click Images to See Full Size

On an intraday basis, the market (S&P500) fell 12.8% from its all time record intraday high of 2,134.72. Currently, the S&P500 is down 6.7% from its peak and down 3.4% YTD.

Did you use the market pullback to buy stocks?

I sure did!  I bought several for my personal portfolio and for my newsletter Explore Portfolio.

Excerpt from my Aug 24, 2015 Email Alert to my Subscribers

Finisar hourly chart with $14.50 purchase price highlighted.

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Apple Haircut - Finisar Success

This morning I had a nice chat with the gals who cut my hair. The older one was in disbelief that I'd own stocks at "such high prices." I reminded her that two years ago they all loved Apple and I warned them I liked other stocks like Finisar... that is now up a decent amount.

I came home, ate lunch and looked up when I wrote those Apple articles:

• April 12, 2012: Apple's Valuation Is Good, But Are The Assumptions Correct?
• March 27, 2012: Apple, Is The Bandwagon Full? Consider Finisar

That was over two years ago!!! Time sure flies!!!!

So, I guess the good news for us longs is so many in the public get sucked into the hot stocks at the top just before they crash and it keeps them timid....

Right now we have the latest "hot stocks" that replaced Apple in the public's list of "must own stocks": FB, TWTR, Tesla, etc..... all having issues while the smart money owns the good stocks and collect dividends to spend and/or reinvest.

BTW, since I wrote the last article recommending Finisar at $17.50 over Apple at $633

• Finisar is up 49% to $26.10
• Apple is down 6% to $592

For more information, see:

• Charts & Quote for Apple
• Charts & Quote for Finisar

Apple vs Finisar April 12, 2012 through today

Finisar Bull of the Day Stock at Zacks

Zacks has Finisar (FNSR) as its Bull of the Day stock

Bull of the Day: Finisar 
by Brian Bolan Published on November 06, 2013

Summary of Key Points:
(Added charts are mine)

Lower CapEx Guidance from Ma Bell

Nearly the entire fiber optic industry had a dimmer switched lowered on their stock prices on October 24. AT&T reported earnings and after increasing CapEx spending in the 3rd quarter, analysts questioned if that rate would continue.

but the CapEx spending cut was only 5%

A simple search of the AT&T conference call transcript reveals the truth of what was said versus how it was interpreted. The CFO stated "we are not trying to limit CapEx spending by a standard compared to last year." 

He went on to say "I think we said in the past that we would expect the CapEx for this year to be in $21 billion range and for '14 and '15 to be in the $20 billion range and at this time we are not adjusting that or changing that." So while CapEx may be shrinking, it’s not as much as you may have believed. It’s also not so likely that this means a 5% cut across the board and fiber could even see an increase in CapEx.

and on Valuation he says:

The valuation of FNSR looks very attractive. While the trailing PE is well ahead of the industry average, the forward PE of 21x is right in line with it. More conservative measures like the price to book multiple and the price to sales multiple each show FNSR trading at a multiple that is less than half the industry average. As analysts continue to move estimates higher, the valuation will only become more attractive unless the stock vaults well above the recent 52 week high.

Disclosure:  I own Finisar with a very low cost basis and cover it in my newsletter.

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FNSR Finisar Soars After Hours on Strong Guidance

Finisar (FNSR) Soared After Hours today on Strong Guidance for record revenues for the just completed quarter.

From Yahoo! Finance InPlay

5:07PM Finisar guides Q1 above prior guidance/consensus (FNSR) 19.13 -0.88 : Co issues upside guidance for Q1 (Jul), sees EPS of $0.30 to $0.31, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.24 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, exceeding the previously estimated range of $0.22 to $0.26; sees Q1 (Jul) revs of $266 mln vs. $253.40 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate and compared to guidance of $245 to $260 million.

The revenue results are preliminary and subject to adjustment. However, in the absence of material adjustment, first quarter revenues will set a new record for the Company and will be the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth. The growth in revenue came primarily from increased sales of 10G, 40G and 100G Ethernet transceivers for datacom applications. Approximately $2 million of the revenue growth over the prior quarter was from products for telecom applications. 

As a result of these higher than expected revenues, a favorable product mix and increased operating leverage, the Company expects non-GAAP gross margin to be 34.5% to 35%. 

stock is halted - Press Release Below

August 06 chart for Finisar

Live Intraday Chart for FNSR

More FNSR charts

SUNNYVALE, CA--(Marketwired - Aug 6, 2013) -  Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR) today announced that, on the basis of preliminary financial results, the Company expects to report revenues of approximately $266 million for its first fiscal quarter, ended July 28, 2013, compared to guidance of $245 to $260 million that the Company provided early in the first quarter. The revenue results are preliminary and subject to adjustment. However, in the absence of material adjustment, first quarter revenues will set a new record for the Company and will be the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential revenue growth. The growth in revenue came primarily from increased sales of 10G, 40G and 100G Ethernet transceivers for datacom applications. Approximately $2 million of the revenue growth over the prior quarter was from products for telecom applications.

As a result of these higher than expected revenues, a favorable product mix and increased operating leverage, the Company expects non-GAAP gross margin to be 34.5% to 35%. This exceeds the previous guidance of approximately 33%. Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to be $0.30 to $0.31 for the quarter, exceeding the previously estimated range of $0.22 to $0.26. A complete assessment of cost of revenues and operating expenses is not yet available but, results under GAAP are expected to include additional non-cash and infrequently occurring charges.

QUARTERLY CONFERENCE CALL

The Company expects to release its first quarter financial results after the market close on Thursday, September 5, 2013 and to discuss the first quarter results and its current business outlook during its regular quarterly conference call scheduled for Thursday, September 5, 2013, at 2:00 pm PDT (5:00 pm EDT). 

YADDA-YADDA STUFF HERE

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My Articles about FNSR on Seeking Alpha -

Long Term Results that Speak for ThemselvesSince 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 450%vs. the S&P500 UP only 106% vs. NASDAQ UP only 101% (All through 6/30/13)Since 12/31/98: 9.0% Compound Annual Return vs. 3.7% for the S&P500
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FNSR: Analyst Summary for Finisar

Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ: FNSR Charts), a global technology leader for subsystems and components for fiber optics communications, reported record results on Sept. 2. Jerry Rawls, Finisar's executive Chairman of the Board said "We achieved company records for revenues, gross margin, operating margin and EPS. Furthermore, the demand environment continued to be very strong for us, particularly for our higher data rate transceivers and our ROADM products. As a sign of that ongoing strength, our book-to-bill ratio in the quarter continued to be above 1.0."

I've been a big fan of Finisar for some time. (See my March 3, 2009 BUY ALERT under "Figures.") I have made a lot of money from the stock and continue to hold shares as I trade its volatility around my core position for added return.  I recently added shares back to my explore portfolio at $12.50 that I sold earlier at $15.88.

FNSR - Finisar Corporation
  Intraday Chart  -  10-Year Chart  

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This is some of what I wrote about Finisar in my recently published September issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter."

8/18/10 Update: "Conservative growth estimates from Cisco, a big FNSR customer, caused the stock price to correct to the point I am tempted to buy shares I sold at $15.88 to take profits. I have not bought yet because the market overall is technically bearish with many failed support levels, including Finisar not holding the dashed green line. Thus, I am waiting for a fat pitch at the auto buy level of $12.50 which is 54¢ below the current 200-DMA at $13.04. Overall, I remain very bullish for Finisar with a 5.0% explore portfolio weighting at $14.04."

and

8/18/10 continued:  Unlike stocks tied more directly to the economy such as GE and FedEx, FNSR will grow even if economic growth slows to a trickle. All those iPads, iPods, and Android phones people are buying as fast as they are made will have users wanting more bandwidth to see videos, surf the web and have video chats. People now seem to be splurging on these new, cool “toys” while they put off buying new refrigerators, autos and other big-ticket items until they are sure they will keep their jobs. Especially when compared to its history, Finisar is remarkably “cheap” with a 0.9 PEG for current fiscal year earnings estimates.

It was worth the wait.  On 8/24 I sent an email "FNSR Auto Buy Alert" to my subscribers

Hello Subscribers , I just bought 125 shares of FNSR at $12.50 for the explore portfolio according to the "Auto Buy and Sell Table" on page 31 of the September newsletter I emailed yesterday.

For some reason, my buy order in my IRA did not fill.  Maybe enough of you had orders in front of mine and they ran out of shares at $12.50.  The real goal is to add here below the 200-DMA (currently $13.16) after a 43% decline from the recent peak.  Thus, I changed my personal order and bought 150 shares for my IRA at $12.80 rather than bother worrying about $45 left on the table.  I remember paying about $50 in commission to buy stocks back in the 1990s! 

One skilled subscriber wrote me on August 26 he bought within 2¢ of the ultimate bottom:

"Picked up 100 FNSR yesterday at $12.00 even plus $7.95 with Fidelity.."

Chart shows FNSR bottomed at $11.98, 52¢ below where I bought back my profit taking shares.  Note how it traded briefly below its 200 day moving average before returning to the dashed green support/resistance line.

Lets see what other analysts have to say about Finisar.

StreetInsider.com reports:

Citi maintains a 'Hold' on Finisar Corp, raises PT from $17.50 to $19.  Citi analyst says, "Results and guidance underscore our view that telecom cap ex recovery intact and optical spend on the mend as telecom component revenue increased +28% q/q & ROADMs grew +13% (units +25%), more than offsetting 5% LAN/SAN sequential decline. Mgt stated that 2Q LAN/SAN likely flat, implying +6% - +14% growth in Telecom/ROADM."

American Banking News reports:

Credit Suisse boosted its price target on shares of Finisar  from $16.00 to $20.00 after strong first quarter results in a research note to investors on Friday. The analysts said that the company’s strong earnings indicates an ongoing rebound in demand. The analysts also maintained a “neutral” rating in a research note to investors on Friday.

 Benzinga reports:

Jefferies Maintains Hold Rating On Finisar After Earnings.
The Jefferies analysts wrote, "Finisar is expanding capacity as demand for ROADM and 10G continues to surprise to the upside. However, we remain cautious due to the potential for inventory build by Finisar's customers in response to higher lead times. Maintain Hold and $16 PT."

Wall St. Cheat Sheet reports:

In a nutshell, the borderline absurd increase in data traffic over traditional telecomm networks brought on by the advent of smartphones, etc., has stressed these networks to the point that they can no longer operate efficiently.  The obvious example of this would be the manner by which the iPhone has single-handedly made AT&T into a “terrible” wireless carrier.  In reality, it’s not so much that AT&T has a sub-par network as much as it is that those networks were built to accommodate telephone calls, not 15-minute youtube videos of your friends dog eating a sandwich.
This is the predicament referred to as “wireless backhaul.”  We send a little bit of data to the network, i.e., dogeatssandwich.com, but the network must send back (thus “backhaul”) an exponentially greater amount of data, i.e., the 15-minute video.  The solution to this problem involves rehashing much of the existing network, and happens to be one of the few true high-growth domestic themes in existence.  All of the companies involved stand to benefit greatly, and FNSR may be at the forefront.

...  Nonetheless, FNSR is one of the higher-visibility growers out there, and would definitely make a solid pick for any portfolio.  Look for shares to test July highs at around $18 if the market can keep from falling too much.

This is part of what I am preparing for the next issue of  "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter."

I believe Finisar is the best company in the fiber optics business and its products will be critical for the transmitting data long and short distances. Server farms will switch to optical links to move data between servers to save on energy compared to using wires; less energy means lower cooling costs too.
...On Sept 2 FNSR announced revenues grew 10.3% and 61.5% over Q4-2010 and Q1-2010 to a record of $207.9M. Net income (GAAP) was $19.4M or 19.1¢ per share and 11.4% of revenue.
...For Q2, FNSR expects revenue of $215M to $230M with net margin growing to 11.5% of revenue. 

OK everyone, get back to sending friends and family Labor Day videos with your cell phones.

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FNSR: Finisar up 571% Over Past Year

A year ago today I added to my Finisar (Ticker FNSR Chart and Quote) holdings at 24¢ (This is $1.92 at today's split adjusted price)

See PDF file: Finisar Mar 3 Buy Alert at 24¢

Today Finisar is $12.89!! (or $1.61 at the pre-split price)

The Gain is (12.89-$1.92)/$1.92x100% = 571%!

What were you doing a year ago? Buying or selling?

Going forward, I still like Finisar and hold it in both new personal and newsletter explore portfolios.

Excerpts from the March issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" about Finisar:

On Feb 9 Finisar said it expects to report revenues of $166 to $167M for its fiscal Q3 ended January 31, 2010. Its prior revenue guidance was $148 to $158M. In the absence of a material adjustment, Q3 revenues will set a new record for Finisar surpassing the previous combined sales for Finisar and Optium of approximately $163M for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2008, just prior to the merger of the two companies and the market melt-down. Based on these projections, Finisar expects to be at the upper end of its original guidance for Q3 on a non-GAAP basis of 30%-32% for gross margin and 6%-8% for operating margin. Sequential revenues will be up about 14.3% over Q2-2010 and 32.1% over last year, Q3-2009! This is the great performance I expected and expect to continue. It is why I bought so many shares of Finisar during the downturn.

6%-8% operating margin on $166 to $167M revenue implies earnings between $10.0M and $13.4M or 15¢ to 21¢ per share.

Finisar should continue to grow operating margin as the costs from merging with Optium end and the new efficiencies take hold. Margins will also improve with volume which I predict will continue to grow at a high rate for many years, subject to gyrations of the economic cycle.

I think FNSR could easily do $1.00 per share in 2011 where a PE of 20 for their growth would be very reasonable. Add in some exuberance as others jump on the bandwidth-wagon and a PE of 40 would be a good target to take major profits at. I find it amazing that FNSR is still cheap with a PE of only 13.5 on FY 2011 earnings. FY2011, only months away, is when we will get FY2012 earnings estimates that should be significantly higher. I expect we will see $20 in a year, if not sooner.

Click table to see full size image

My only regret is I didn't buy even more!

I actually bought Finisar shares 6 different times at prices lower than today.

After buying when very low, I took some profits when it soared. Then I bought some back on a correction. Now I and am back to taking profits, a little at a time, as I hope it continues higher.

If Finisar corrects enough, I may buy shares back again unless my opinion on Finisar changes and I sell all shares.

Disclaimer: I own FNSR in my personal and newsletter portfolios. I may trade around a very profitable core position at any time. I often have buy and sell targets in my newsletter where I announce "Auto Buys" and "Auto Sells" (limit orders with your broker) ahead of time.

Note: A day later I bought some GE at $6.76. See

• March 4, 2009 GE Buy Alert
  
  
• GE Quote and Charts
  

Give it time to load as it is pdf on a slow server.

Click for full size image courtesy of stockcharts.com

Current FNSR Chart and Quote

NASDAQ Short Interest - Largest Positions and Changes

Yesterday Reuters reported short interest on the Nasdaq rose 4.1% in mid-July, reflecting an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market.

Below are data and charts for the five Nasdaq stocks that experienced the largest increases and decreases in their short positions in the first half of July. Also included are data and a chart for the five largest NASDAQ short positions as of July 15, 2009.

FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES:
COMPANY                   July 15     June 30  NET CHANGE  %CHANGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
E*Trade Financial(ETFC) 135,357,993  95,942,774  39,415,219  41.08
Cell Therapeutics(CTIC)  31,428,479  14,244,326  17,184,153 120.64
Evergreen Solar  (ESLR)  30,912,624  22,979,653   7,932,971  34.52
Applied Materials(AMAT)  54,661,221  47,382,033   7,279,188  15.36
Starbucks Corp   (SBUX)  48,176,793  41,999,418   6,177,375  14.71

Click Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES
COMPANY                   July 15     June 30  NET CHANGE  %CHANGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sirius XM Radio  (SIRI) 146,038,635  194,820,020 -48,781,385 -25.04
Sanmina-SCI Corp (SANM)   1,771,396   11,172,618  -9,401,222 -84.15
Intel Corp       (INTC)  79,599,664   88,709,534  -9,109,870 -10.27
Level 3 Comm Inc (LVLT) 101,482,009  109,950,552  -8,468,543  -7.70
Finisar Corp     (FNSR)   1,200,475    8,521,489  -7,321,014 -85.91

Click Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

FIVE BIGGEST POSITIONS:
COMPANY                   July 15     June 30  NET CHANGE  %CHANGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sirius XM Radio  (SIRI) 146,038,635  194,820,020 -48,781,385 -25.04
E*Trade Financial(ETFC) 135,357,993   95.942,774  39,415,219  41.08
Level 3 Comm Inc (LVLT) 101,482,009  109,950,552  -8,468,543  -7.70
Microsoft Corp   (MSFT)  80,868,407   86,848,410  -5,980,003  -6.89
Intel Corp       (INTC)  79,599,664   88,709,534  -9,109,870 -10.27

Click Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size image

Questions for the SEC and Congress:

1. Why is there a nine day delay in making the data public?
   
   
2. Why is this data not made available in real time or at the end of each trading day?
   
   
3. Who has access to this data before the public and are they allowed to trade on this undisclosed to the public information?
   
   
4. If anyone who is allowed to trade on the information, then what happened to enforcing Regulation FD that limits selective disclosure and insider trading?
   

If ANYONE has access to the data to make these calculations, then I think it is criminal that this data is not made available as soon as available to everyone.

Disclaimer: I own in my own portfolio and cover in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" AMAT, FNSR, INTC and MSFT. I may buy or sell at any time without announcement beforehand.

Post and Read Comments

Finisar Jumps on Good News from JDS Uniphase

Today Finisar (FNSR charts) is up 11% after the good news from its competitor, JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) lifted that that stock 28%.


Yesterday JDS Uniphase reported fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 9% to $399.2 million. FY Q2 net income fell 8.6% to $21.2 million, or 9¢ per share, from $23.2 million, or 10¢ per share, a year earlier. If you exclude onetime gains and benefits, JDS said earnings would have totaled 22¢ per share in the quarter ended Dec. 29.

On that basis, JDSU easily analyst consensus for earning of 12¢ per share on revenue of $386.4 million.

Even better news at a time the market is full of bad news, JDSU indicated their Q3 revenue might also beat analyst estimates of $390.2 million. JDSU predicted sales of $380 million to $402 million.

This great news from JSDU was enough to have FNSR up 11% so far today.

Finisar remains a good GARP stock. GARP means "Growth At a Reasonable Price."

Key Statistics for Finisar Corp. (FNSR) according to Yahoo! Finance

Market Cap (intraday): 540.11M
Enterprise Value (6-Feb-08): 647.18M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 30-Apr-09) 1: 14.58
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.81
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.20
Price/Book (mrq): 2.86

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 106.02M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.344
Total Debt (mrq): 262.47M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 1.528
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.394
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.556

Key Statistics for JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) according to Yahoo! Finance

Market Cap (intraday)5: 2.87B
Enterprise Value (6-Feb-08)3: 1.85B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 30-Jun-09) 1: 18.44
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.78
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.55
Price/Book (mrq): 1.27

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 1.12B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 5.089
Total Debt (mrq): 733.00M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.418
Current Ratio (mrq): 5.432
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.992

The acknowledged trouble with the sector is it needs consolidation because profit margins are low with too many suppliers chasing too few companies like Cisco. The leaders are Finisar, privately held Avago Technologies (where I used to work on fiber optics in the 1980s and early 1990's when it was part of HP before it was spun off as Agilent) and JDS Uniphase.

Jim Cramer Fans will remember he liked the stock in the $4s and $5's but gave up on it with this bearish call in May 2007 around $3. Will he get back into it before its next run or will he wait again for $4?

• Finisar: "No. I liked FNSR ... Their time has passed. They didn't get the big orders."

I like Finisar and have added to it at these low prices. I expect to take profits as fiber comes back into fashion, especially after TV personalities like Jim Cramer start to talk about it again, but I consider it a good long-term investment for those who can stomach its high volatility.


Disclaimer. I own and recommended Finisar in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" where I buy and sell it around a core position for a current "break-even" price of $1.53 after two recent purchases at lower prices. (That is, recent purchases have increased my break-even price.)