Fiber optics companies like Finisar (
FNSR), JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU), Opnext, Inc. (OPXT) and privately held Avago Technologies Limited all stand to benefit from the bandwidth woes that ail internet service providers and broadband cable companies such as Comcast (CMCSA), Verizon Wireless (VZ) and AT&T Inc. (T).
Comcast users report that the file transfer is cut off when they try to download legal copies of movies when they use peer-to-peer, file-swapping software like BitTorrent and Gnutella. Comcast has acknowledged "delaying" some subscriber data transfer, but said "
the delays are temporary" and intended to improve surfing for other users. Vindu Goel of the San Jose Mercury News
wrote:
You're at home and get a hankering to watch a movie. You fire up your computer, turn on your Comcast high-speed cable modem and start downloading a legal copy of the vintage Hitchcock thriller "The Man Who Knew Too Much" using BitTorrent, a popular file-sharing program.
Suddenly, the transfer stops. The computer sending you the file has dropped the connection. You wait a minute. Nothing happens. You try restarting the transfer. The data flows for a few seconds, then stops again.
What's going on? Comcast is breaking your connection. On purpose.
This does not sound "temporary" to me.
Is this legal? Goel reports:
Comcast's user agreement officially bans file-sharing and "gives them the ability to do anything they darn well please," said California Deputy Attorney General Robert Morgester, who prosecutes Internet crimes in the state.
Why does Comcast stop users from using the bandwidth they think they paid for? A quick search for "
Video on Demand" shows Comcast offers Video on demand for a fee. "Net Neutrality" advocates, who want the FCC to prevent internet service providers from favoring some content over others, have argued that "virtual monopolies" will force internet users to pay for things they could get for free if they had unrestricted access to bandwidth.
The heat is already on the companies. The AP report "
Senators Want Probe on Content Blocking" says On Friday October 26, "
Senators. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, said the incidents involving several companies, including Comcast Corp., Verizon Wireless and AT&T Inc., have raised serious concerns over the companies' "power to discriminate against content."
Who stands to benefit?In the long run, if you pay a company for bandwidth then elect to get your video content from one of its competitors, then US laws should prevent a monopoly or powerful company from stopping you from doing this. Microsoft paid a heavy price for using its monopoly power to prevent computer companies from putting "unapproved" software and features on the Windows desktop.
I am sure ISPs will eventually have to give unrestricted access to bandwidth so you can download your movies from Blockbuster, Netflix or any of their competitors that offer you a better price. If this downloading makes the overall experience poor for their paying customers who share the network, then they will have to upgrade the cable networks with fiber optics.
Some of the leading fiber optics companies are Finisar Corp, JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU), Opnext, Inc. (OPXT), Bookham Inc. (BKHM) and privately held Avago Technologies Limited (where I worked on fiber optics when it was part of HP in the 1980's and 1990's.)
Another company I own that may benefit is Carrier Access (
CACS). Carrier provides "Exxtenz" product that enables service providers to utilize passive optical networking, PON, technology to deliver services, such as wire-speed Ethernet, voice, T1, and video services to businesses.
Disclaimer: The author is long Finisar (
FNSR) and Carrier Access (
CACS) at the time of this article.
BKHM: Oct 26 $3.15 -5.12% FNSR: Oct 26 $ | 2.24 -5.08% CACS: | Oct 26 $ | 3.43 -3.65% JDSU: | Oct 26 $ | 14.73 +0.89% | OPXT: | Oct 26 $ | 13.29 -0.75% |
Twenty years after Black Monday (see " Black Monday 1987 Graphs") Citigroup (Ticker C, Charts) looks even more compelling to me today than when I added it to my newsletter “Explore Portfolio” back in September 1998 at a fraction of today’s price. .
On October 1, citing “dislocations in the mortgage-backed securities and credit markets, and deterioration in the consumer credit environment” Citi said its third quarter 2007 net income would decline about 60% from the year ago $5.06 Billion. Citi said it would: - write down about $1.4B of its $57B portfolio of highly leveraged loans
- lose about $1.3B on the value of securities backed by subprime loans
- lose $600M in fixed-income credit trading. It also said consumer credit costs rose $2.6B, mostly due to a boost in loan-loss reserves.
CEO Chuck Prince said during the earnings conference call - "Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, while we obviously cannot predict market movements or other unforeseeable events that may affect our businesses, we expect to return to a more normal earnings environment as the year progresses."
Citigroup's plan is to write off all the bad news in this quarter and hope they can look forward to the future. If they over estimated their "subprime meltdown losses" then they can reduce loss reserves in future quarters to report better than forecast results going forward. The fear is they under estimate their losses and more write-downs will follow. I believe people are selling like lemmings running off a cliff on fear things are much worse. Those of us with the ability to buy through periods of massive fear often end up with superior returns. Technically, the chart for Citigroup found support on the dashed-blue uptrend line that marked the bottom for two major fear days in 1998 and 2002. The fear from this subprime meltdown is no different. With a dividend of $2.16 and today's closing price of $42.61, Citi pays you a 5.07% yield that is considerably better than the 4.41% 10-year Treasuries currently pay.
Despite his reputation for "buy and hold forever," billionaire Warren Buffett said last week that his company, Berkshire Hathaway, had sold all shares of PetroChina Co. Ltd (Ticker=PTR, website), a Chinese oil conglomerate. - "Our Favorite holding period is forever.” -Warren Buffett
Activists had urged Buffett to sell his PetroChina shares due to the world's second largest companies ties to strife-torn Sudan via Petrochina's parent company, China National Petroleum Corp. Click to see full size graph
Despite vocal activist shareholders in support of this divestiture, Buffett insisted in an interview on the new Fox Business Network (FBN) the decision to sell was driven by valuation. - "If it went down a lot I'd buy it back."
Buffett told Rupert Murdoch's FBN that the recent price gains of PetroChina's shares means he sold too soon and "left a lot of money on the table." Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway made as much as $3.5 Billion dollars on the initial $500 million investment. As of July 2007, Berkshire Hathaway owned 11 percent of the publicly traded shares. Berkshire bought PTR in 2003. Friday PTR closed at $232.98 after peaking at $266.81.
Finisar Corporation ( more FNSR Charts) designs, manufactures and markets fiber-optic subsystems and network performance test and monitoring systems that enable high-speed data communications over local area networks (LANs), storage area networks (SANs) and metropolitan access networks (MANs). Today Piper Jaffray started covering Finisar (FNSR) with an outperform rating and a $4 price target."We believe the stock was oversold following its July quarter earnings call and has created a compelling entry point." Finisar is focused on the application of digital fiber optics to provide a broad line of high-performance, reliable, value-added optical subsystems for data networking and storage equipment manufacturers. Its line of optical subsystems supports a wide range of network applications, transmission speeds, distances, physical mediums and configurations.
Click chart to view it full sized
 To get my current thoughs about Finisar in greater detail and more, subscribe NOW and get the October issue of “ Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter") for FREE! Disclaimer: I am long Finisar in both my newsletter and personal portfolios. I accumulated Finisar between $1.01 and $1.99 in my newsletter portfolio so I have significant gains at this time. I may sell or add to my position at any time. I will tell my newsletter subscribers when I sell, but I will not necessarily post about it online before or after.
Someone with a large position in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (ticker BRKA) asked if he should buy another cash loaded company with similar valuation metrics, Wesco Financial Corp. (WSC). My reply was the real value today is in some small capitalization technology stocks like Lam Research ( LRCX) and Verigy ( VRGY.) Here is my reasoning. One of the reasons I have stayed away from Berkshire Hathaway is its “Warren E. Buffett Premium.” This is what people pay to own BRKA over “fair value” so Warren Buffett can manage their money. What happens to the price of BRKA if Buffett dies? BRKA today reminds me of General Electric ( GE) in 2000 when it still had its "Jack Welch Premium" not to mention the daily gushing on CNBC about how much money the reporters were making in the individual stock they could own. In 2000 GE had a PEG ( Price-to- earnings ratio divide by its 5-year growth rate) twice that of the S&P500. Today that premium is gone and GE at $41 is still down about 30% from its 2000 peak while the S&P500 is back to its 2000 peak. High premiums are risky. Selling at $117,200 with $30,343 per share in cash, BRKA is 26% cash. This survey of CD rates says you can get 5.0 to 5.75% at many banks in CDs. If I want to pay a premium for Warren Buffett to manage my money, then I would want his return on assets to beat safe CDs and treasuries enough to overcome this premium at a minimum. Yahoo! finance lists BRKA’s “management effectiveness” as: Return on Assets (ttm): 4.65% Return on Equity (ttm): 11.34% (ttm is trailing twelve months)
With Valuation metrics: Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday) = 14.99 Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) = 19.35 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) = N/A (no earnings growth predicted) (fye is for year ending)
Why not put 25% of your money in 5.75% CDs and invest the other 75% in stocks with better GARP ( Growth At Reasonable Price) metrics? Compare the above numbers for BRKA to one of my larger holdings and a company I have already made about sixteen (16!) times my money on since buying it for my newsletter and personal portfolio in 1998, Lam Research (Ticker LRCX.) Yahoo! finance lists Lam’s “management effectiveness” as: Return on Assets (ttm) = 21.21% Return on Equity (ttm): 43.29%
With valuation metrics: Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday)= 12.24 Forward P/E (fye 25-Jun-08) = 12.21 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) = 0.65
Verigy is another “GARP” stock I have been buying for my newsletter portfolio and myself. Yahoo! finance lists Verigy’s “management effectiveness” as: Return on Assets (ttm): 10.38% Return on Equity (ttm): 18.48%
With valuation metrics: Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday)= 19.96 Forward P/E (fye 31-Oct-08) = 13.47 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) = 0.79
Verigy has a similar cash/share ratio as BRKA but it makes far better returns overall. I think there is great value now is in technology stocks that are not in the headlines. Everyone knows about Google ( GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) but how many have heard of Lam Research or Verigy? The way to make big gains is to buy well managed growth stocks before everyone has heard of them. I have made good money already in both Lam and Verigy but I think there is much more to be made. In addition, how are people trying to help third world countries improve? Are they giving them cans of Coke (KO) Geico insurance, Sees candy and Gillette razors (PG,) all subsidies of BRKA, or are they giving the kids portable, cheap, laptops with wireless connectivity that operate on the sun or hand cranking? Lam and Verigy are two of my best-valued stocks that make picks and shovels that help make this new technology possible. BRKA is mostly a perceived "value stock" and we have had about 7 years where investors have shunned growth to buy good, safe value stocks. The numbers I posted above for Lam and Verigy, stocks I buy and sell for added return around a core position, show why I think a rotation to growth with value should occur soon, if it has not already started. Subscribe now and get my just released October 2007 Newsletter with my two core portfolios plus my more volatile (and higher long term return) explore portfolio with the latest buy and sell targets.
On Feb 9, 2007 Garo H. Armen, CEO and Chairman of the Board, bought 50,000 shares to increase his direct holdings to 106,601 shares. I wrote about it and my buy on the news here. The stock soared shortly after this purchase and has recoverd to a seven month gain of 27% trading at $2.45. Details: - OFCR/ CEO & Chair o/ Board = Classification of Insider
- $96k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
- 50k = Number of Shares
- $1.93 = Average Price Paid
- $1.91 = Recent Stock Price (delayed)
- 132k = Average Daily Volume (composite timeframe)
- $88M = Company Market Capitalization
- 2007-02-09 = Purchase Date
- 2007-02-13 = Filing Date
- 13:21:59 = SEC Arrival TimeStamp

More AGEN Charts Yesterday, September 14, 2007, Garo H. Armen bought another 50,000 shares of AGEN at an average price of $2.33. Details: - OFCR/ Chair & CEO = Classification of Insider
- $117k = Value of I-Buy trade(s)
- 50k = Number of Shares
- 2.33 = Average Price Paid
- 2.45 = Recent Stock Price (delayed)
- 315k = Average Daily Volume (composite timeframe)
- 112M = Company Market Capitalization
- 2007-09-14 = Purchase Date
- 2007-09-14 = Filing Date
- 17:31:46 = SEC Arrival TimeStamp (Filing appears on SEC site 30-60 secs later)
SEC Form 4 shows Armen how holds 266,610 shares of common stock directly and holds another 11,489,274 via By Antigenics Holdings LLC and Armen Partners LP ( 3 ). The last insider buy in Feb was a good time to buy as the stock soared from $1.93 to about $5.25 two months later. Even if you didn't sell at the top and held, a 27% gain in seven months is nice. Disclaimers: - I first reported this purchase here on Feb 13, 2007.
- I own AGEN in my personal portfolio and bought 1,000 shares on the Feb 9, 2007 news.
- I may trade the ups and downs of AGEN in either or both my personal and my newsletter explore portfolios without announcing it here or anywhere else.
- Dr. Armen is CEO, Chairman of the Board of Managers and a member of Antigenics Holdings LLC ("Holdings") which, as of the date of this report, owns 11,154,274 shares of Antigenics Inc. common stock. Dr. Armen has a pecuniary interest in only a portion of the shares held by Holdings and disclaims beneficial ownership except to the extent of his pecuniary interest therein. Dr. Armen is also General Partner of Armen Partners LP. Armen Partners LP owns a total of 335,000 shares of Antigenics Inc. common stock. Dr. Armen has a pecuniary interest in only a portion of the shares held by Armen Partners LP and disclaims beneficial ownership except to the extent of his pecuniary interest therein.
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