- The U.S. economy contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate in the third quarter, as consumer spending declined at the fastest pace in 28 years, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.
- Final sales to domestic purchasers fell 1.8%, the largest decline in 17 years.
- Consumer spending dropped 3.1%, the first decline in 17 years and the biggest drop in 28 years
- business investment fell 1%.
- Investments in homes fell for the 11th straight quarter.
- Inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes fell 8.7%, the largest quarterly decline since the record-keeping began in 1947!!!!
- Saturday, January 05, 2008: "ECRI Says Fed Has Room To Cut Rates Despite Fears of Inflation"
"WLI growth is now at its worst reading since the 2001 recession. However, the WLI's recent decline is not based on pervasive weakness among its components, suggesting that a recession could still be averted"
- Friday, January 25, 2008: "ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy"
The U.S. economy is now in a clear window of vulnerability, given the plunge in ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (WLI) since last spring. Yet there is a brief window of opportunity within that window of vulnerability to avert a recession. That is why ECRI has not yet forecast a recession.
- Friday, March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
The U.S. economy is now on a recession track. Yet this is a recession that could have been averted. In January, given the plunge in the Weekly Leading Index, we declared that the economy had entered a clear window of vulnerability. Yet we emphasized the brief window of opportunity within that window of vulnerability for timely policy stimulus to head off a recession.
Other key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis include:
- AAII: American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear Index: AAII Charts and Info
- II-BBS: Investors’ Intelligence Bull Bear survey: II Charts and Info
- ISE (International Securities Exchange) Sentiment Index: ISE Charts and Info
- State Street Investor Confidence Index State Street Charts and Info
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