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Saturday, April 11, 2020

Best Week Since 1974 -Market Update 4/11/20

Market Update 4/11/20: For the Easter holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 surged 12.1% for its biggest one-week gain since 1974, while the Dow rallied 12% and the Nasdaq jumped 10.6%. The S&P 500 (Chart #3 below) is well into a new bull market up nearly 29% off its bear market low.

It is shocking to see record bearish sentiment on many of the sentiment charts at the end and equally shocking how quickly we've recovered off the lows to a more "neutral" position.

For the year, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 16.9%, 13.7% and 9.1% respectively with the Russell 2000 still in bear territory down 25.3% YTD .

After falling 36% to a bear market low of 2,191.86, the S&P 500 has rallied 29% to a new, cyclical bull market high while covering just over 50% of its loss from the peak.

While the the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are now down less than 20% from their peaks, the Russell 2000 trails significantly at down 28.4%.

Hopefully you raised cash like I did in my newsletter to have funds to buy back some of what we sold at much lower prices.

Intel (INTC) is one of the "great trading stocks" I cover in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" where I trade Intel around core positions.
I took profits in January at $66.57 then used the bear market decline to buy the shares back at a $14.65 discount ($66.57-$51.92=$14.65) in March.
Here is a copy of the email alert I sent my subscribers to REMIND them Intel reached the price I published in the newsletter for buying shares back.

More Intel charts.  The second chart at that link has a very cool AI (Artificial Intelligence) feature that draws resistance and support lines on the one-year graph.

During the COVID-19 Bear Market Decline, I added to 15 of the 17 individual "issues" I cover in my newsletter for "Kirk's Explore Portfolio." That was a record as typically there are only one or two buys or sells during a month. I haven't worked so hard to send out alerts and update my newsletter with new target prices (listed on the full page coverage of each individual issue with a summary of all buy and sell prices updated on page 5 of each newsletter) since I started the newsletter in 1998! Order a Free Sample Issue if you wish to see what this looks like.
Now with the great, big rally from the bottom, we are very, very close to my "take profits" points for many of these stocks. Some are still closer to the buy points so it is not too late either. IF this turns out to be a long, secular bear market with cyclical bull market rallies, then I should continue to profit from that volatility.

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Here are a few, important investor sentiment charts that I cover in my newsletter. You can see there was record fear at the bottom of this bear market before the current bull market started.

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