US Stock Markets (Log Scale) vs. Fed Funds Rate and some other charts I use to help find good times to take profits then use those profits to buy back shares when the markets decline.
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
US Stock Markets (Log Scale) vs. Fed Funds Rate and some other charts I use to help find good times to take profits then use those profits to buy back shares when the markets decline.
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
US Treasury Interest Rate graphs from 1/1/94 through 9/7/24
US Treasury Yield CurveFrom https://home.treasury.gov/
TIPS:Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
Market Sentiment Update
Read Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter to see what these charts meant to me plus the full list of stocks and ETFs are in my "Explore Portfolio" with my price targets to both take profits or buy more shares, depending on market conditions, prices, sentiment and other factors.
Investors Intelligence Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) & S&P 500 Weekly - 8/8/24
Invented by Tom Drake, the 2CS-p is the "5 day moving average of the product of the vix and p/c ratio." The scale runs from 0 to 100% with 0% max bullishness and 100% max bearish reading for us contrarians.To calculate 2C-p, Larbro explains: "Take each days p/c ratio and multiply it by that days vix. Take the sum of those results for that day and the previous 4 (5 total) and percentage rank them from 0% to 100% in terms of size against all the other data you have. The higher the numbers (5 day sum of p/c x vix), the higher the ranking. Then subtract that % ranking from 100% to "invert" the ranking so that lower 2c-p correspond to lows in the market and vice versa.In my case they are ranked from today all the way back to Feb 10, 2003, the earliest I have data for. So in a nutshell if yesterday's 2c-p was 7.8% (which it is) that tells you that only 7.8% of the sum of the 5 day p/c x vix (aka the 2c-p) is lower than yesterdays value."
This is not an “exact science” so “all or nothing” market timing is foolish.
Market Timing Disclaimer: No sentiment indicator, or any indicator for that matter, is 100% reliable. I look at sentiment as head winds and tail winds. When sentiment is terrible, then it acts like a tail wind for your returns where you could see further declines, but long term, it is best to be buying when most others are selling. Likewise, if we see sentiment get too bullish, then I would consider lowering my portfolio asset allocation. It seldom pays to be buying stocks when EVERYONE is talking about stocks and how much money they are making at cocktail parties.
In addition, I am not market timing but for a small portion of my Explore Portfolio. I use market-timing indicators to tell me it is a good time to buy so I can add to positions when the market is down and thus help me overcome my fear to rebalance back to my target asset allocation. Likewise, when the market-timing indicators are saying to sell, they usually come when the markets are high where I want to be taking profits. The market timing indicators at market highs help me get over my greed and take profits.
Kirk's 6/12/24 Deficit Spending Update: For FY 2024 to date, total taxes and other revenues collected YTD are up 9.8% year-over-year. The "good news" is SPENDING grew at "only" 8.0%! This means the deficit is growing a "slower rate."
The problem is during periods of economic growth like we've had for several years, we should be paying down debt by keeping spending below revenue, but we're doing the opposite.
Despite President Biden's "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" (estimated to contain $500B in new spending and tax credits) and the Federal Reserve keeping its Fed Funds Interest Rate at a 20-year high, inflation at 3.3% is 1.3% or 65% above the desired or "target rate" of 2.0%.
CPI-U: This morning the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced, "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was flat in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4 percent in April". and "Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 3.3 percent before seasonal adjustment."
Core CPI-U: "The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May, after rising 0.3 percent the preceding month" and "The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months."
Chart: CPI vs Fed Funds Rate vs Expected 10-Yr Inflation from 2004
Today the Channel 2 Fox News in SF/Oakland CA showed the prices for In-N-Out Burger after California raised the minimum wage to $20 per hour for workers at fast food restaurants.
Here are the prices for a:
Next, they showed the prices for an "In-N-Out Double Double Meal" by city which includes a soda.
Healthy (ahem) hint: Skip the soda and drink a free water to keep your price under $10.
Discuss the prices on my FB Investing for the Long-Term Group.
McDonald's Prices according to CNBC
Market Sentiment Update
Investors Intelligence Bulls / (Bulls+Bears) & S&P 500 Weekly - 5/23/24
Invented by Tom Drake, the 2CS-p is the "5 day moving average of the product of the vix and p/c ratio." The scale runs from 0 to 100% with 0% max bullishness and 100% max bearish reading for us contrarians.
This is not an “exact
science” so “all or nothing” market timing is foolish.
Market Timing Disclaimer: No
sentiment indicator, or any indicator for that matter, is 100% reliable. I look
at sentiment as head winds and tail winds. When sentiment is terrible, then it
acts like a tail wind for your returns where you could see further declines,
but long term, it is best to be buying when most others are selling.
Likewise, if we see sentiment get too bullish, then I would consider lowering
my portfolio asset allocation. It seldom pays to be buying stocks when
EVERYONE is talking about stocks and how much money they are making at cocktail
parties.
In addition, I am not market timing
but for a small portion of my Explore Portfolio. I use market-timing
indicators to tell me it is a good time to buy so I can add to positions when
the market is down and thus help me overcome my fear to rebalance back to my
target asset allocation. Likewise, when the market-timing indicators are
saying to sell, they usually come when the markets are high where I want to be
taking profits. The market timing indicators at market highs help me get
over my greed and take profits.