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Friday, January 13, 2017

ECRI's Weekly Leading US Index Up to a New Record High

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI -- a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) today.

For the week ending January 6, 2017:

  • WLI was 144.9 up slightly from the prior week's reading of 144.6
  • WLI Growth was 12.2%, up from the prior week's reading of 12.0%.
Here is my chart of weekly WLI and its growth rate compared to quarterly US GDP back to 1994:

Chart of WLI and WLI growth vs GDP Growth (click charts to expand)

This is ECRI's chart showing WLI's weekly growth rate back to 1974:
Weekly ECRI Press Release Graph

Weekly ECRI vs the S&P500 and GDP Growth
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  1. Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
  2. ECRI uses the WLI level and WLI growth rate to HELP predict turns in the business cycle and growth rate cycle respectively. Those target cycles are not the same as GDP level or growth, but rather a set of coincident indicators (including production, employment income and sales) that make up the coincident index. Based on two additional decades of data not available to the general public, there are a couple of occasions (in 1951 and 1966) when WLI growth fell well below negative ten, but no recessions resulted (although there were clear growth slowdowns).
  3. For a better understanding of ECRI's indicators, read their book, "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy
ECRI's Book

is Available on Kindle

Tuesday, January 03, 2017

Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards


Top Market Timer Awards for Stock & Bond Timing For 2016

I am pleased to announce that "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" did very well according to the January 2, 2017 issue of "Timer Digest."  This is the annual issue where Timer Digest announces their 2016 Timers of the Year lists for stocks and bonds.

Awards for Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter for 2016:

  1. 2016 Top Ten Long Term (Stock) Timers - Tied for fourth.
    Last year I tied for third.

Best timers for One Year PeriodCongratulations to Bill Meridian for winning the title of "2016 Timer of the Year" (for stocks) and to Steve Todd for the title of "2016 Bond Timer of the Year."    Note, I shared first place for the bond timing award three years ago (2013 Timer Digest Awards):

Bond Timer of the Year!

More about Timer Digest:
  • Timer Digest monitors over 100 of the leading market timing models, ranking the top stock, bond, and gold timing according to the performance of their recommendations over various periods of time. Timer Digest profiles many of the Top Investment and Financial Newsletter writers, including discussions of their timing models.
  • Timer Digest Features Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on its Cover

Sunday, January 01, 2017

Kirk Lindstrom's 2017 Article List

Key Articles: 
2017 (Articles in Red are KEY)

Oct 26 2017 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2017
April 07 Newest Sentiment Indicator Very Bullish For SPY Even After a 14% Gain
Apr 03 Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model from Citi Investment Research
Mar 13 Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance
Feb 28 Fed Funds Interest Rates vs. S&P500 Index 
Feb 11 With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Tradable Low
Feb 04 With SPY Still Down 10%, Sentiment Charts Suggest A Tradable Bottom
Jan 31 Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015
Jan 26 Tom Drake's 2CS Sentiment Indicator - Buy Signal
Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels - SPY Down 11%
Jan 14 Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards - 3rd Place long & short term

2015 - Favorite Articles
 - More at 2015

Sept 21 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment vs S&P500 Record Bearish Sentiment!
Sept 09 S&P500 Earnings Adjusted for Inflation from 1900 to 2015
May 27 Median Single-Family Home Prices Adjusted for Inflation
Mar 07 Fed Funds Interest Rates vs. S&P500 Index
Mar 04 S&P500 PE Ratio & CAPE History - Historical Price to Earnings Ratios
Feb 13 US Federal Capital Gains Tax Brackets and Rates for 2015
Jan 27 2015 US Federal Income Tax Brackets & Federal Marginal Tax Rates
Jan 26 Jim Cramer's 2014 Action Alerts Plus Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance
Jan 02 Bob Brinker's "Follow-up Guidance" for Brinker's 2000 QQQ trade

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