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Monday, January 01, 2024

2023 Year End Summary & Market Update for 12-31-23

Happy New Year!

Unlike 2022, 2023 was a great year for both stocks and bonds.

The US stock markets responded well to the US economy continuing to grow while inflation continued its slow decline:
  • Despite very confident predictions from many famous economists that the US economy would experience a recession by Mid to Late 2023, this prediction was as bad as the prediction that high inflation would be "transitory." 
    • Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!”
      Niels Bohr, Nobel laureate in physics & father of the atomic model

  • CPI-U Inflation fell by over 50% from 6.5% on December 2022 to 3.1% today. (Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.  Note, inflation numbers are for the prior month.) Here we are a year and a half since inflation was thought to be "transitory" and yet it remains more than 50% above the Fed's 2.0% target.

  • The 10-year US Treasury rate ended the year 0.1% below where it began.  The 1-month US Treasury Rate rose from 4.12% to 5.60% today as the Federal Reserve raised their Fed Funds interest rate by 1.0%. 
My Notes on the Fed Funds Rate
  • 12/14/22 the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.50% to a new range of 4.25% to 4.50%
  • 12/13/23 the Fed kept rates at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%
US Treasury Rates

10-Yr & 30-Yr T-Bond Rates vs S&P 500
Major Market Index Charts:
S&P 500



Russell 2000 Small Cap Index

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