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Saturday, February 26, 2022

US Treasury Interest Rates

 US Treasury rates are slowly inching higher in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's March meeting where most pundits expect the Fed will: 

  • End QE bond buying by "reducing the pace" to zero
  • Raise interest rates by 0.25% to 0.50%

US Treasury Interest Rates through 2/25/2022

LIBOR Rates from 1993 to 2/26/22

TIPS Core Yield vs S&P 500 through 2/25/22

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Service

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Market Update and Sentiment Charts for 2/24/22

 Today the markets saw a "rip your face off" rally from a decline in the S&P 500 that was down 15% from its peak with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down over 20% into bear market territory.  

As you would think, that has market sentiment quite bearish.

Graph of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Bulls Minus Bears Sentiment Indicator vs the Dow.  $INDU $DIA  #MarketSentiment #Sentiment #InvestorSentiment  $SPY $SPX #AAII

II  Bulls Minus Bears Survey vs Log Dow Graph  #IIBullsBears #Sentiment #StockMarket #SPY $SPX $SPY $INDU $DIA #Stocks 

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Thursday, February 10, 2022

Inflation Soars to 40 Year High

CPI-U @ 7.5%: Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in January 2022 the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6%. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.5 percent.

Core CPI-U @ 6.0%: "The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in January, the same increase as in December. This was the seventh time in the last 10 months it has increased at least 0.5 percent.

Highest Inflation in 40 years:

The all items index rose 7.5 percent for the 12 months ending January, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 1982. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent, the largest 12-month change since  the period ending August 1982. The energy index rose 27.0 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 7.0 percent.  

The energy index increased 0.9 percent in January. The electricity index rose sharply in January, increasing 4.2 percent. The gasoline index fell 0.8 percent in January after rising rapidly in the autumn of 2021. (Before seasonal adjustment,  gasoline prices rose 0.1 percent in January.) The index for natural gas also declined in January, falling 0.5 percent after declining 0.3 percent in December. 

The energy index rose 27.0 percent over the past 12 months with all major energy  component indexes increasing. The gasoline index rose 40.0 percent over the last year, despite declining in January. The index for natural gas rose 23.9 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for electricity rose 10.7 percent.

2/10/22 Biden Barometer:  Stock Market & Oil Price Performance under President #46 Joe Biden 

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