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Friday, November 21, 2008

Art Hogan's Bottom Call

Art Hogan is the managing director at Jefferies. On October 10, 2008 Art Hogan said
This market is indiscriminately selling and ignoring good news out of IBM, GE, and ignoring good news on the monetary policy front.. all of that’s being ignored while we’re in liquidation mode.”

I think if you look at all the carnage we’ve done to the major indices, the bottom gets put in today.
Everyone who has money in the stock market was rooting for this to be true.

Beautiful and intelligent CNBC reporter Erin Burnett (Erin Burnett Fan Club) just reported there were over two million Google searches for information on Art Hogan's Bottom Call.

Sadly, yesterday we went much lower.

Below is a chart from "Chart of the Day" showing how this "correction" stacks up for all corrections between 1900 and today.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

Chart of the Day says:
For some perspective on the current correction, today's chart illustrates all major stock market corrections (15% loss or greater) of the last 108 years.

Each dot represents a major correction as measured by the Dow. For example, the bear market that began in 1973 lasted 481 trading days and ended after the Dow declined 45%.

Since 1900, the Dow has undergone a major correction 26 times or one major correction every 4.2 years.

As it stands right now, the current stock market correction (October 2007 peak to most recent low which occurred today) would measure slightly below average in duration but above average in magnitude.

In fact, of the 26 major stock market correction since 1900, the current stock market correction currently ranks as the fourth largest in magnitude (only the corrections beginning in 1906, 1929, and 1937 were greater) and is the most severe stock market correction of the post-World War II era.
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