If this is a major new bull market, what sort of gains can we expect?
In the Fidelity article titled "How Will the Bear Market End? Historical patterns of stock market reversals" certified financial advisor Dirk Hofschire says the average gain in the first month of a new bull market is 12% of its entire gain. In the first year, we usually get 40% of the total price gain and 45% after counting for dividends.
"evaluating all the bull markets since 1930, the first month of a new bull market on average has provided more than 12% of an entire bull market's gains, with an average return of 14% during these initial months (see Exhibit 3, below). Within six months, more than one quarter (27%) of an entire bull market's performance (on average) was already in the books. The first 12 months of the average bull market has provided more than 40% of an entire bull market's price appreciation, yielding on average 45% for investors -- well above the category's long-term average annual return of 10%. So while bull markets typically last an average of three years and have even spanned an entire decade, the biggest bang for the buck has typically come in the initial months of the rebound."
What gains have we seen for this new bull market?
This chart above shows the S&P500 (charts) is already up 20.6% from its low on a closing basis. The DJIA and NASDAQ100 indexes are up 18.77% and 19.93%, respectively.Major US Index Charts: