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Friday, February 26, 2010

2009 GDP Quarterly and Annual Data

Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of US Gross Domestic Product or GDP for 2009 and Q4 of 2009. Unedited Press Release. The estimate for GDP was revised up by 0.2% from the first estimate for Q4-2009 GDP which was was 5.7%

See tables and graphs at the end of this article.

Highlights of Table 1:
  • The contribution from durable goods jumped 20.4% in Q3 from "Cash for Clunkers" then it dropped back to 0.2% in Q4.

  • Contribution to GDP from "Structures" continues to plunge at double digit rates.

GDP for 2009 by Quarter and Full Year
Q1-2009 = -6.4%
Q2-2009 = -0.7%
Q3-2009 = +2.2%
Q4-2009 = +5.9%

All of 2009 = -2.4%
All of 2008 = +0.4%

GDP: Fourth Quarter 2009 (Second Estimate)

  • Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
  • The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 5.7 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
  • The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
  • The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a deceleration in imports, and an acceleration in exports that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE and in federal government spending.
  • Motor vehicle output added 0.44 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.45 percentage points to the third-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01 percentage point from the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.08 percentage point from the third-quarter change.

Gross domestic purchases

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in the third.

Current-dollar GDP
_____________________________________Advance Second
Real GDP............................. 5.7 5.9
Current-dollar GDP................... 6.4 6.3
Gross domestic purchases price index. 2.1 1.9
(Percent change from preceding quarter)


2009 GDP
  • Real GDP decreased 2.4 percent in 2009 (that is, from the 2008 annual level to the 2009 annual level), in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in 2008.
  • The decrease in real GDP in 2009 primarily reflected negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE), that were partly offset by a positive contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
  • The downturn in real GDP primarily reflected downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports and a larger decrease in private inventory investment that were partly offset by a larger decrease in imports and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment.
  • The price index for gross domestic purchases was unchanged in 2009, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in 2008.
  • Current-dollar GDP decreased 1.3 percent, or $183.2 billion, in 2009. Current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $363.8 billion, in 2008.
  • During 2009 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter 2009), real GDP increased 0.1 percent. Real GDP decreased 1.9 percent during 2008. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.6 percent during 2009, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent during 2008.

Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product

Table 1: 2009 Data
[Percent] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 2009
I
2009
II
2009
III
2009
IV
Gross domestic product-6.4-0.72.25.9
Personal consumption expenditures0.6-0.92.81.7
Goods2.5-3.17.22.8
Durable goods3.9-5.620.40.2
Nondurable goods1.9-1.91.54.1
Services-0.30.20.81.2
Gross private domestic investment-50.5-23.75.048.9
Fixed investment-39.0-12.5-1.36.2
Nonresidential-39.2-9.6-5.96.5
Structures-43.6-17.3-18.4-13.9
Equipment and software-36.4-4.91.518.2
Residential-38.2-23.318.95.0
Change in private inventories------------
Net exports of goods and services------------
Exports-29.9-4.117.822.4
Goods-36.9-6.324.634.2
Services-13.60.15.61.4
Imports-36.4-14.721.315.3
Goods-41.0-16.525.120.2
Services-11.5-7.57.0-3.9
Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment
-2.66.72.6-1.2
Federal-4.311.48.00.1
National defense-5.114.08.4-3.5
Nondefense-2.56.17.08.3
State and local-1.53.9-0.6-2.0

The above table breaking down the data by component is very interesting.
  • You can see the 20.4% Q3 jump in durable goods from "Cash for Clunkers" then it dropped back to 0.2% in Q4.

  • Contribution to GDP from "Structures" continues to plunge at double digit rates.

GDP Total and Percent 2000 to 2010

click image to view full size


US Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP

Next Release Date March 26, 2010

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