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Tuesday, March 12, 2013

ECRI Stays with Recession Call

ECRI made the rounds last week explaining why they still believe we are in a recession.  Below is a summary   from Sam of their appearances.

Interview Summary 
In a few interviews this week we discussed ECRI’s recent presentation, Recession in the Yo-Yo Years. Each interview clip covers different aspects of that presentation as described below. 


  • Coincident indicators, including GDP, are consistent with recession starting mid 2012
  • Stock prices can rise during recession
  • Policy makers targeting market prices
  • Mild vs. severe recession
Bloomberg Part 1
  • The Fed's recessionary stall speed measure stalled in 2012
  • Year-over year jobs growth is slowing, not accelerating
  • Nominal GDP growth recessionary
  • ECRI April home price growth upturn call & recent Leading Home Price Index decline 
Bloomberg Part 2
  • Stocks prices and recessions
  • Fed targeting financial assets, including 401(k)s
  • Plunging velocity of money since 2011
  • ECRI April home price upturn call, and recent Leading Home Price Index decline 

Yahoo Finance
  • Weak incomes and recession
  • Stock prices have risen during three of the past 15 past recessions
  • The difficulty of “real-time” recognition of recession

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