Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group based in New York also known as ECRI, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to its lowest level in its six decade history. The WLI and its growth rate are designed to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and recoveries.)
The WLI growth rate fell to -24.6%, down from -21.9% last week.
Commenting on the data, Anirvan Banerji, from ECRI said
"We are now in a severe recession."and
"The leading indicators are showing no light at the end of this tunnel. In the last week of October they registered their worst readings in their six decades of history. It tells you the economy's not just down, it's plunging. There is no end in sight to this recession."
Date and graph courtesy of Economic Cycle Research Institute
More ECRI Articles:
- October 30, 2008: ECRI Warned Us; We Are In A Recession Now
- March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
- January 25, 2008: "ECRI Says There Is A Window of Opportunity for the US Economy"
- January 05, 2008: "ECRI Says Fed Has Room To Cut Rates Despite Fears of Inflation"