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Saturday, March 21, 2009

Doug Kass Bottom - Bear Turns Bull

I saw Doug say on CNBC TV that the market would make a generational bottom sometime in the next few days just two days before the S&P500 (S&P500 charts) hit 666.76 then rebound to 803.24, up 20.5%.

In the video below, Jim Cramer & Debra Borchardt discuss the "Doug Kass Bottom Call" on RealMoney TV. Cramer said listening to Kass is not the same as betting on the guy who got two blackjacks in a row in a card game. In the interview, Cramer said
"A guy who saw things coming when no one else did is a guy who may see things coming that no one else does."
Cramer says he has known Doug for 15 years and Doug has "always been short" so to have Doug say it is a "a generational bottom" is "shocking" and worth paying attention to.

I prefer to leave market timing to the soothsayers while I beat the markets using "core and explore" investing.

After the markets bottomed in 1998, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 117% in 1999.

After the markets bottomed in 2002, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 77% in 2003.

I look for similar gains after this bear market bottoms . The gains have already started since my portfolio, though down from the peak since I don't pretend to time the markets, is ahead of the S&P500 for both 2008 and 2009.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

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