Tesla Skeptic Jim Cramer Has a Buy on Tesla Near the Top

Jim Cramer Has a Buy on Tesla now at $352.70!

"I'm now a zealous convert.  A true believer in Tesla.  That is why I can't commit in Netflix." followed by his BUY BUY BUY sound effect.

and

“Cult product? Check. Sound balance sheet? Check. Charismatic Leader? Check,” the host said. “If you’re going to invest in a battleground stock, Tesla’s got all the ingredients of a winner.”

He made a long case for why he now likes it including:

• His daughter, who is not a car person, liked it for a drive from Portland, Oregon to SF California.
• His wife says the solar roof panels are the same price as regular roof panels so she wants to get them. (I wonder if they have an expensive slate roof as I doubt they are as cheap as asbestos shingles or even my more expensive concrete tile roof.)

Cramer gets a lot of headlines but I believe it has been years since he's been able to beat just buying and holding an index fund for his recommended stocks.  

He had a great record as a hedge fund manager but he admitted in this video that he did some things that are not allowed... then or today.  Go to 2:20 to 3:40 where he admits to doing what was and is "blatantly illegal."

To me, that explains why he can't beat the markets without cheating these days... it is far different than market manipulation that he explains in the whole video such as calling reporters to spread news about Apple to move the stock!

1. 6:10 Hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders that can push it down
2. 6:15 Then leak it to the press
3. 6:17 then get it on CNBC, that is also very important.

My performance without cheating.....
Kirk's Explore Stock Performance Estimate for 2019 YTD

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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CNBC STORY: Jim Cramer turns bullish on Tesla — ‘I’m a true believer’

Market Update for September 1, 2015 - Jim Cramer, Bob Brinker & Dennis Gartman Views

Market Update for September 1, 2015

Jim Cramer thinks it is a bear market and we'll go lower.  Bob Brinker is looking for a test of the recent (Aug 25) lows and Dennis Gartman says it is a bear market and he's net short.

 I'll have a good laugh if the lows for the markets are in and the markets leave all these snake oil salesmen (nobody can really time the markets.. they just make a lot of noise to get on TV and radio to sell ads and their own investment products.) in the dust.

Yesterday's close, down over 10% for all indices, vs. August 25th's close. The good news is today the markets are up.
Posted by Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on Wednesday, September 2, 2015

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Jim Cramer says Hewlett Packard HPQ is a Buy

Some people are getting bullish again for Hewlett Packard (HPQ Charts and Quote).  I still hold all shares that I bought at lower prices in 2012.  (I bought twice under $15 with my own money and added it to my newsletter at $14.50)

At the bottom of this article is an excerpt from my January Newsletter about HP showing its valuation metrics.

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A little over a year ago I heard Jim Cramer on his show trash talk HP stock. It was one of the final straws on the Camel's back that convinced me it was time to buy again after more than a decade of selling.

I also bought my first ever shares for my newsletter portfolio with a buy under $15 and targets to add at a lower price. I probably wrote this article too soon as it didn't quite reach my next buy point before taking off

• Jan. 10, 2013 Toni Sacconaghi Expects Dow Dog Hewlett-Packard To Nearly Double

Yesterday I caught a bit of Cramer's show and he said HPQ was a buy:

"Hewlett-Packard has been going up quietly and slowly. Cramer would be a buyer rather than a seller."   
Cramer's Mad Money Recap - (1/15/14)

You gotta love it when someone changes direction on advice after a double.

HP looks terrible on valuation using growth since revenue and earnings are still falling, but it has a PE of only 7 so if Meg can steady the ship it could easily get a PE of 10 for a nice gain. Show some growth and it could double again for a PE of 14.

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HPQ Valuation Discussion from my Newsletter

Jim Cramer Charitable Trust Performance

Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance

The July 2013 issue of Mark Hulbert's "Long Term Performance Ratings" shows the performance for over 500 newsletter portfolios. He updates this report twice a year. I show a snapshot of it here.

2013 YTD:  On page 8, Hulbert shows "Jim Cramer's Actions Alerts PLUS" portfolio  gained 9.8% during the first half of this year.  That sounds good until you compare it to the Wilshire 5000 (Total Market) index which gained 14.0% with dividends reinvested.  You can buy the total market index with a low exchange traded fund (ETF) from Vanguard like VTI.

Performance Since Inception:  On page 8, Hulbert also shows "Jim Cramer's Actions Alerts PLUS" portfolio has ONLY gained 12.4% per year since 12/31/08 while the Wilshire 5000 (Total Market) index gained 16.8% over the same period with dividends reinvested. 

• This means over the last 4.5 years, Cramer's stock portfolio underperformed the simple Wilshire 5000 exchange traded fund (ETF) from Vanguard (VTI) by 4.4% per year!

Jim Cramer Charitable Trust Returns & APR

Portfolio Performance
Year	Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus	Kirk's Newsletter Aggressive Core Portfolio	Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio More Data
2009	+28.5%	+26.2%	+33.5%
2010	+14.2%	+14.3%	+20.4%
2011	-9.5%	-0.9%	-3.9%
2012	+15.9%	+13.6%	+7.1%
2013 - 1H	+9.8%	+10.2%	+9.1%
Total Years	4.5	4.5	4.5
Total Return	69.0%	78.9%	80.4%
	Good	Better	BEST!
4.5-year Annualized Return	12.4%	13.8%	14.0% Subscribe Now!

Compare my simple, easy to follow strategy to all the buys and sells for Jim Cramer's portfolio before you decide which strategy you wish to follow! 

Kirk's Newsletter Aggressive Core Portfolio  is made up of 80% in equity index funds (or ETFs) from Vanguard plus about 20% in fixed income that can vary from cash to bonds, depending on my outlook for interest rate risk.  It is very simple and easy to follow with only one portfolio change made in the last year.
Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio is made up of individual stocks, cash, bonds and ETFs.  The portfolio, like Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway, usually has about 30% in cash (or very liquid fixed income) to take advantage of buying opportunities.  I make, on average, one trade a month.  I list buy and sell prices in my monthly newsletter for the portfolio so you can set "limit orders" ahead of time at your broker.

Compare my simple, easy to follow strategy to all the buys and sells for one of Cramer's portfolios before you decide which strategy you wish to follow! 

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Jim Cramer is Bearish Intel and Why I Bought INTC

Update 7/29/13:

• Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance: 2013

Now and then I like to watch Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" show on CNBC to see what direction the wind is blowing.  That is, I think Cramer has a very entertaining show, especially if you like shouting and nobody taking the other side of his arguments, but it seems he echos what is "group think" that tells you "why" a stock is up or down, but does very little for making good, long-term decisions.  Sponsors who sell trading strategies love his show as it is easy to sell stocks and advice for stocks that are moving.

On his October 28, 2012 show during the "Lightning Round" he gave a bearish call on Intel:

Intel (INTC): "During the period when it was doubling and doubling again, I was behind it, but I have walked away from it. INTC has a good yield, but it has no product used by mobile to speak of, except their own, and that isn't doing so well. INTC is stuck in the world of the PC, so even though it has a good yield, I say 'don't buy."

Two weeks later, on November 11, 2012, I bought shares for my personal account at $20.06.  I also increased the "Auto buy at $19.75" price target in my newsletter for my "Explore Portfolio" to anything under $20.25 to take advantage of any price weakness.

Late last month, on November 21, 2012,during the "Lightning Round" Cramer again gave a bearish call on Intel:

Intel: "I’m not going to tell someone to sell this stock with a 4.6% yield. I am going to say wait until it goes to 4% for a bounce, because I do believe the yield will support it, but I don’t see any reason why you should own it. Sell it only after a bounce when the yield drops to 4%."

Yesterday I heard him trash talk Intel again on the "Morning Bell" show by saying Intel should have used their cash to buy Arm Holdings (ARMH) when Arm was cheap. I couldn't have disagreed more. That motivated me to write this article saying why I disagreed:

Why Intel is a Great Buy (while at $19.75).  Excerpts

• I bought my first shares if Intel in April 1993. At a split-adjusted price nearly 10 times what I paid for those shares, I believe Intel is a safer, more compelling buy now than it was in 1993.

Intel Since Inception

• Yesterday, Dec. 4, 2012, Intel announced the largest bond sale in its history to buy back stock. This offering was 20% larger than its $5 billion similar offering in September 2011.
• Wise investors will take advantage of low prices now to buy before tax loss selling ends and Intel uses these funds to repurchase shares.
• I think Intel did something far better than buying ARM. Intel invested billions in new semiconductor equipment to build products with better performance than anyone can get from ARM chips running on competing processes.
• Summary 
  Intel is a great buy here, especially under $20. Intel's valuation numbers will improve as they buy back shares with the funds from its just announced $6 billion bond offering. I took profits at $27.25 in February of this year with my newsletter explore portfolio, but now I am buying back. 
• I would not be surprised to be taking profits in some of the Intel stock I've bought recently right around the time when TV gurus jump on the Intel bandwagon again next year. Jump on now and get a good seat!

More Intel Charts and Quotes

Yesterday Intel closed at $19.85 and now it is over $20.

Was yesterday the last chance to buy Intel under $20?  I didn't mention in in my Seeking Alpha article, but I think Intel will probably build chips for Apple (AAPL) in the near future. By the time that is public knowledge (ie Intel chips showing up in tear-downs of Apple products) the stock will probably be $30 and then Cramer will change his tune.

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Jim Cramer Recommends Gold and Gold Corp.

Update 7/29/13:

• Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Performance: 2013

Today on CNBC's "Street Signs" at about 11:30AM PST Amanda Drury interviewed Jim Cramer for their regular "stop trading" segment.  Gold (Quote and Chart) closed at $1,410.90 per ounce near its all time high.

Jim Cramer was very excited about Gold.  Cramer said

• "I've been a gold bug since 'Mad Money" began.
• EVERYONE should have ten to twenty percent of their portfolios in gold.
• Gold is "extraordinarily poised to go up better than ANY OTHER ASSET in the world."
• Gold "could see $1,550 very quickly"
• Gold "could" see $2,000 per ounce within 18 months.
• "They can't find the stuff."
• EVERYONE must own gold!
• "Gold is your antidote to what is going on.... Chaos in Washington.  Chaos in the Middle East."

Today Gold closed at $1,410.90 per ounce near its all time high.

When asked what he liked for a stock pick, Jim recommended Goldcorp (GG).  Jim said he likes GG because of their low p[roduction costs and "ability to find the stuff."

Today GG closed at $49.34, slightly below its all time high

I wonder how many people will add Gold or Goldcorp to their portfolios now near all time record highs based on Jim's advice.

Questions:

1. Can anyone verify that Cramer has been a gold bug since his Mad Money show began?  
2. Has Cramer had Gold in his action alerts portfolio for 10 to 20% from the start? 
3. Was it a small position that grew with the large gain in gold? 
   Or 
4. did he add Gold recently?

Personally, I own a very small amount of gold hidden in the house for bribes if we see Armageddon, but I own "treasury inflation protected securities" (TIPS) mutual funds (like the ETF TIP or managed funds FINPX, VIPSX) and Series I-Bonds, as well as individual TIPS. I also believe it is a good time to own equities, including SPY, the exchange traded fund for the S&P500, for both inflation protection and income.

The individual 30-yr TIPS I said I was buying in "How to Play Expected Inflation From the TIPS Spread" are up about 6% in just two weeks already. I am not making any predictions for the price of Gold, but individual TIPS bought directly from the US Treasury are safe since they won't lose money if the price of gold crashes.

More Information:

• Gold Charts and Quote
• TIPS Funds: FINPX and VIPSX  
• Amanda Drury Fan Club

More pictures of Mandy Drury

Lenny Dykstra, Jim Cramer's Top Stock Picker, Files for Bankruptcy

On Tuesday, 46 year old Lenny Dykstra filed for bankruptcy. He claimed $50,000 in assets and liabilities somewhere between $10 million and $50 million according to a Tuesday filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Central District of California.

Jim Cramer said Lenny Dykstra was one of the best stock pickers in the world and one of the very few he would listen to.

Here is the Jim Cramer interview telling how good Dykstra, aka "Nails" was at picking stocks.
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According to the REUTERS story:

• "the event triggering the bankruptcy filing was a planned foreclosure sale of a southern California residence that Dykstra bought from hockey legend Wayne Gretzky for $17.5 million in 2007."
  
• "according to the bankruptcy petition, Dykstra's largest unsecured creditors include units of JPMorgan Chase & Co, owed $12.9 million, and Bank of America Corp, owed a combined $4.2 million."
• "According to an April article on ESPN.com, Dykstra put his net worth at $60 million, and also owned a black Rolls Royce Phantom and Gulfstream II jet."

I watched Dykstra talk about this on CNBC. He said he was told he could refinance later on at an "affordable rate" so he is going to sue the banks that gave him the loans and refuse to give him an affordable loan. It sounded to me like the value of the property fell and he could not get a loan at a lower rate like many others that are under water with real estate.

Jim Cramer DOW 6500 Bottom Call Myth

On June 1, 2009 Jim Cramer gave a summary on his show of what he saw to call a bottom on the stock market at DOW 6500 by saying "the worst is over, the downside was over and the time was ripe to buy."

Don Harrold says Cramer is "perpetuating the myth" (aka lying.) This is an excellent video by Don Harrold showing how bearish Jim Cramer was at the bottom of the bear market. Below this video, I show the closing prices for the DOW as it fell from the 7000s to 6,594.44 on March 5 then back to the 7,000s by March 12, 2009. I also show the date in chart format.

For those of us who were buying when the market bottomed, this "perpetuating the myth" of something Cramer did not do is upsetting.

• click to view PDF file: GE March 4 Buy Alert at $6.76
  
  
• click to view PDF file: Finisar Mar 3 Buy Alert at 24¢

What do you think? Is Jim truthful or is his show just another version of "The Simpsons" but with an investment theme?

======================================================================================

He thought the DOW could go down another 15% to 5300 before it would bottom.

To Jim Cramer's credit, he did turn bullish soon after the market bottomed, but how many did he scare out with his bearish commentary at and near the very bottom?

I like Jim Cramer's show for entertainment and good investing ideas, but if his investment record was good, then don't you think he would publish his long term record by year like I do?

• Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Returns by Year
  

DOW Closing Prices near around the bottom.

Date	Close
13-Mar-09	7,223.98
12-Mar-09	7,170.06
11-Mar-09	6,930.40
10-Mar-09	6,926.49
9-Mar-09	6,547.05
6-Mar-09	6,626.94
5-Mar-09	6,594.44
4-Mar-09	6,875.84
3-Mar-09	6,726.02
2-Mar-09	6,763.29
27-Feb-09	7,062.93

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com to see full size image

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Doubled Money in a Down Market!

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 113% (over a double!) vs. the S&P500 DOWN 9% vs. NASDAQ down 16% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 28% (All through 6/4/09)

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Jim Cramer Rant Blasting NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo Over Housing Bubble

This video shows Jim Cramer [Jim Cramer Fan Club] attacking NY Attorney General Cuomo as a communist for wanting to make it harder to get a loan. The beautiful woman is Erin Burnett [Erin Burnett Fan Club].

Cramer said Cuomo’s decision to question the housing bubble and the proliferation of no-interest, nothing down, tell-me-any-story-you-like mortgages was positively anti-American.

Jim says doing this will shut down Washington Mutual, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... three companies that were not able to remain solvent on their own due to the housing collapse.

March 27, 2009: Single Family Home Prices, Adjusted for Inflation, Down 1.6% Since 1979

Note the ticker on the screen shows the S&P500 was at 1495 when Jim want on this rant.

==========================================

==========================================

Jim Cramer quotes:

• “Cuomo’s about confiscation — genuine communist”
  
  
• “The Chinese are capitalist, we got a communist.”
  
  
• "Cuomo says 'Lets make it harder to get a mortgage'"
  
  
• "Cuomo says Lets make it harder to lend"
  
  
• "Cuomo says 'I am going to shut down the mortgage market'"
  
  
• "Cuomo says 'I am going to make it harder to get a loan.'"

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info & Best Investment Letter)

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Recent Articles of note:

• Single Family Home Prices, Adjusted for Inflation, Down 1.6% Since 1979
  
  
• Best Investment Newsletter

• Doug Kass Bottom - Bear Turns Bull
  
  
• Jim Cramer Fan Club
  
  
• Erin Burnett Fan Club

Doug Kass Bottom - Bear Turns Bull

I saw Doug say on CNBC TV that the market would make a generational bottom sometime in the next few days just two days before the S&P500 (S&P500 charts) hit 666.76 then rebound to 803.24, up 20.5%.

In the video below, Jim Cramer & Debra Borchardt discuss the "Doug Kass Bottom Call" on RealMoney TV. Cramer said listening to Kass is not the same as betting on the guy who got two blackjacks in a row in a card game. In the interview, Cramer said

"A guy who saw things coming when no one else did is a guy who may see things coming that no one else does."

Cramer says he has known Doug for 15 years and Doug has "always been short" so to have Doug say it is a "a generational bottom" is "shocking" and worth paying attention to.

==========================================================================================

I prefer to leave market timing to the soothsayers while I beat the markets using "core and explore" investing.

After the markets bottomed in 1998, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 117% in 1999.

After the markets bottomed in 2002, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 77% in 2003.

I look for similar gains after this bear market bottoms . The gains have already started since my portfolio, though down from the peak since I don't pretend to time the markets, is ahead of the S&P500 for both 2008 and 2009.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

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Jon Stewart & Jim Cramer Video: Cramer vs. Stewart

If this was a fight, they would have stopped it in the first round.

I think Stewart was 100% dead on target. He has no problem with Cramer selling himself as entertainment or a news reporter if he reports news, but he said the idea Cramer knows what will happen and you will profit if you watch, is a fraud and CNBC needs to change so Jon can go back to making fart sounds and funny faces.

Hulu - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart: Thu, Mar 12, 2009 - Watch the full episode Below
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Video description: Jon Stewart and CNBC’s Jim Cramer
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If anyone feels sorry for Jim Cramer, then consider this:

I've tried to find out how the "Action Alerts Plus" portfolio has done that Jim Cramer mentions many times a day on CNBC. My guess is he works for next to nothing on CNBC compared to the salary he draws from TheStreet.com for "advertising and promotion" which is spelled out in the SEC filings. The idea is spout so many buys and sells with impossible to follow speed so viewers are left with paying for his recommended portfolio via a subscription.

How many are smart enough to ask for 1,3, 5 and 10 year returns for Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" portfolio he touts daily on CNBC?

I emailed TheStreet.com and asked for returns before I'd consider subscribing and the reply was to call a phone number they sent. Do you think they'd make it so hard to get Cramer's record for a MANAGED portfolio if it was a good record?

I am proud of my investment record and make it public HERE for all to see. Why won't Cramer do the same for his "Action Alerts Plus" portfolio? I think you know the answer.

I don't think Stewart went far enough.

Why not ask Cramer how many of the stocks he recommended as the keynote speaker at the "6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition" are still in business or if any are selling for half the price he recommended them for.

The Winners of the New World
Jim Cramer: 02/29/00 - 09:42 AM EST

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), InfoSpace.com (INSP), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN and Veritas Software (VRTS).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending.

[Kirk Comment: "It" ended less than a month later when the internet bubble burst.]

Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

Read the full article and then check to see how those 10 stocks did.

Yahoo says (Click for Quotes) 3 of the 10 are gone! (one ticker, VRTS,i s being used by a new company)

Keynote speakers are not chosen to give short term trading advice.

I am proud of my investment record and make it public HERE for all to see. Why won't Cramer do the same for his "Action Alerts Plus" portfolio? I think you know the answer.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 144% (a double plus another 44% !) vs. the S&P500 UP at tiny 2.5% vs. NASDAQ down 3.2% (All through 9/30/09)

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Jim Cramer on Bear Stearns March 11 & 17, 2008

Today Jim Cramer was on Erin Burnett's "Street Signs" (Erin Burnett Fan Club) show to say he was not bullish on Bear Stearns (BSC) last week. He said he was only telling the person with the question to not take their money out of the brokerage.

"Bear" closed today at $4.81 as hopeful investors think they might get more than the $2 per share JP Morgan announced they will buy Bear Stearns for. (See J.P. Morgan Chase buys Bear Stearns for $2 a share )

Tuesday with BSC at $62.97, Jim Cramer took a call from a viewer asking about Bear Stearns liquidity problems. This was his reply.

• Caller Question: Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in the terms of liquidity and get my money out?
  .
• Jim Cramer: NO! NO! NO! Bear Stearns is fine. DO NOT take your money out.

Watch the video here to decide for yourself.

There has been a ton of message board discussion today about Cramer's "bullish call for Bear" last week. To answer the questions, this is what he told Erin Burnett:

“Look, let’s understand two things,” Cramer said. “I said the common stock was worthless on Friday, as soon as this thing was at 36 because we saw a look at the bonds. If you kept your money in Bear you made out. You got the liquidity. Keeping money at Bear – I guess I could have caused a run on the bank and said take your money out of Bear. I guess people could say hold it, he’s saying buy the common stock. I mean, what the heck. I cannot cause a run. It turned out the Federal Reserve guaranteed the money. I’m not going to tell people to pull money out of these places. The Federal Reserve is guaranteeing the money. They are not guaranteeing the equity. I got a lot of things wrong in my life, but I don’t regret the fact when I said don't take your money out of Bear. If you have your money in Bear you still got it today. Remember, there’s Bear Stearns the common and that person was going to pull the money out of Bear. We got a guarantee. J.P. Morgan is now Bear.”

I checked SeekingAlpha for their daily recap. It is called

• Jim Cramer's Mad Money In-Depth: 3/11/08: Bullish on Bear

The TITLE says "Bullish on Bear" and it shows in the URL....

On the “Today” show March 17, Cramer said:

“If you’re a diversified investor, you’re not going to get hurt. Those who only had their money in Bear obviously will get wiped out today."

hmmmmm..... Maybe we should ask Bill Clinton what "in Bear" means.

One thing for sure....

Anyone who was in Bear Stearns the stock last Tuesday and held it on what Cramer said is not going to be a happy camper today.

This graph of the rise and fall of Bear Stearns stock is one for my historical files. Let it be a reminder to not put all your eggs in one basket, even if you work at the company and the company pays you in company stock. Take profits and diversify!

• Facebook Jim Cramer discussion forum
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• Erin Burnett Fan Club and Pictures

Finisar Jumps on Good News from JDS Uniphase

Today Finisar (FNSR charts) is up 11% after the good news from its competitor, JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) lifted that that stock 28%.


Yesterday JDS Uniphase reported fiscal second-quarter revenue rose 9% to $399.2 million. FY Q2 net income fell 8.6% to $21.2 million, or 9¢ per share, from $23.2 million, or 10¢ per share, a year earlier. If you exclude onetime gains and benefits, JDS said earnings would have totaled 22¢ per share in the quarter ended Dec. 29.

On that basis, JDSU easily analyst consensus for earning of 12¢ per share on revenue of $386.4 million.

Even better news at a time the market is full of bad news, JDSU indicated their Q3 revenue might also beat analyst estimates of $390.2 million. JDSU predicted sales of $380 million to $402 million.

This great news from JSDU was enough to have FNSR up 11% so far today.

Finisar remains a good GARP stock. GARP means "Growth At a Reasonable Price."

Key Statistics for Finisar Corp. (FNSR) according to Yahoo! Finance

Market Cap (intraday): 540.11M
Enterprise Value (6-Feb-08): 647.18M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 30-Apr-09) 1: 14.58
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.81
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.20
Price/Book (mrq): 2.86

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 106.02M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.344
Total Debt (mrq): 262.47M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 1.528
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.394
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 0.556

Key Statistics for JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU) according to Yahoo! Finance

Market Cap (intraday)5: 2.87B
Enterprise Value (6-Feb-08)3: 1.85B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 30-Jun-09) 1: 18.44
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.78
Price/Sales (ttm): 1.55
Price/Book (mrq): 1.27

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 1.12B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 5.089
Total Debt (mrq): 733.00M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.418
Current Ratio (mrq): 5.432
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 7.992

The acknowledged trouble with the sector is it needs consolidation because profit margins are low with too many suppliers chasing too few companies like Cisco. The leaders are Finisar, privately held Avago Technologies (where I used to work on fiber optics in the 1980s and early 1990's when it was part of HP before it was spun off as Agilent) and JDS Uniphase.

Jim Cramer Fans will remember he liked the stock in the $4s and $5's but gave up on it with this bearish call in May 2007 around $3. Will he get back into it before its next run or will he wait again for $4?

• Finisar: "No. I liked FNSR ... Their time has passed. They didn't get the big orders."

I like Finisar and have added to it at these low prices. I expect to take profits as fiber comes back into fashion, especially after TV personalities like Jim Cramer start to talk about it again, but I consider it a good long-term investment for those who can stomach its high volatility.


Disclaimer. I own and recommended Finisar in "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" where I buy and sell it around a core position for a current "break-even" price of $1.53 after two recent purchases at lower prices. (That is, recent purchases have increased my break-even price.)