ECRI's Weekly Leading US Index Up to a New Record High

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI -- a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary Weekly Leading Index (WLI) today.

For the week ending January 6, 2017:

• WLI was 144.9 up slightly from the prior week's reading of 144.6
• WLI Growth was 12.2%, up from the prior week's reading of 12.0%.

Here is my chart of weekly WLI and its growth rate compared to quarterly US GDP back to 1994:

Chart of WLI and WLI growth vs GDP Growth (click charts to expand)

This is ECRI's chart showing WLI's weekly growth rate back to 1974:

Weekly ECRI Press Release Graph

Weekly ECRI vs the S&P500 and GDP Growth

Newsletter Special!

Subscribe to my Newsletter NOW
and get the January 2017 Issue for FREE!!

Notes:

1. Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.
2. ECRI uses the WLI level and WLI growth rate to HELP predict turns in the business cycle and growth rate cycle respectively. Those target cycles are not the same as GDP level or growth, but rather a set of coincident indicators (including production, employment income and sales) that make up the coincident index. Based on two additional decades of data not available to the general public, there are a couple of occasions (in 1951 and 1966) when WLI growth fell well below negative ten, but no recessions resulted (although there were clear growth slowdowns).
3. For a better understanding of ECRI's indicators, read their book, "Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit From Turning Points in the Economy

ECRI's Book

is Available on Kindle

Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards

1/8/17 Update: 2017 Market Timer of the Year!

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Top Market Timer Awards for Stock & Bond Timing For 2016

I am pleased to announce that "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" did very well according to the January 2, 2017 issue of "Timer Digest."  This is the annual issue where Timer Digest announces their 2016 Timers of the Year lists for stocks and bonds.

Awards for Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter for 2016:

1. 2016 Top Ten Long Term (Stock) Timers - Tied for fourth.
   Last year I tied for third.

Timer Digest Features Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on its Cover

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter 
 Subscribe NOW 

Best timers for One Year Period: Congratulations to Bill Meridian for winning the title of "2016 Timer of the Year" (for stocks) and to Steve Todd for the title of "2016 Bond Timer of the Year."    Note, I shared first place for the bond timing award three years ago (2013 Timer Digest Awards):

Bond Timer of the Year!

More about Timer Digest:

• Timer Digest monitors over 100 of the leading market timing models, ranking the top stock, bond, and gold timing according to the performance of their recommendations over various periods of time. Timer Digest profiles many of the Top Investment and Financial Newsletter writers, including discussions of their timing models.
• Timer Digest Features Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on its Cover

Kirk Lindstrom's 2017 Article List

Key Articles: 

• Make Money In A Flat Market With Asset Allocation & Market Volatility
• Winning the Zigs, losing on the Zags - Why small investors usually do poorly
• Series I Bond Rates

2017 (Articles in Red are KEY)

Nov 09 iPhone X (10) Material Cost & Profit Margin vs Samsung Galaxy S8 Nov 01 New Series I Bond Rates - November 2017 through April 2018 Oct 12 Napa County Active Fire Incident Map with Perimeters  Sept 29 US Federal Income Tax Brackets & Federal Marginal Tax Rates for 2017 Sept 06 Citigroup Panic-Euphoria Sentiment Indicator Plunges to 2016 levels Sept 06 During Market Turbulence Diversification Works! Aug 12 Graph: US Treasury Rates & SPY Yield July 14 Chart of US Fed Funds Rate vs. 11th District Cost of Funds Index (COFI) May 02 New Series I Bonds Offer Attractive Rates - Older iBonds Pay up to 5.6% April 07 Today's Apple iPhone 6S Fire - No Injuries reported Mar 29 S&P500 PE Ratio History - Historical Price to Earnings Ratio Mar 25 Chart History Of Dow Jones Industrial Average declines from 1896 to 2016 Mar 14 Comparison of Unlimited Data Plans at Top US Wireless Carriers    Feb 15 50 Largest US Companies by Market Cap - Apple leads Alphabet Feb 01 Price for 2017 Super Bowl 51 Advertisement - $5.0M to $5.5M! Jan 21 2017 Bradley Turn Dates - Bradley Siderograph with key dates for 2017 Jan 13 ECRI's Weekly Leading US Index Up to a New Record High Jan 03 Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards I tied for fourth place! Favorites from 2016 (Articles in Red are KEY) Oct 26 2017 Social Security COLA: Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2017 April 07 Newest Sentiment Indicator Very Bullish For SPY Even After a 14% Gain Apr 03 Citigroup's Panic/Euphoria Model from Citi Investment Research Mar 13 Jim Cramer's "Action Alerts Plus" Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance Feb 28 Fed Funds Interest Rates vs. S&P500 Index  Feb 11 With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Tradable Low Feb 04 With SPY Still Down 10%, Sentiment Charts Suggest A Tradable Bottom Jan 31 Los Altos Real Estate - Home prices gain another 15.7% in 2015 Jan 26 Tom Drake's 2CS Sentiment Indicator - Buy Signal Jan 14 Sentiment Charts Reaching Blood In The Street Levels - SPY Down 11% Jan 14 Timer Digest Market Timer of the Year Awards - 3rd Place long & short term 2015 - Favorite Articles - More at 2015 Sept 21 Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment vs S&P500 Record Bearish Sentiment! Sept 09 S&P500 Earnings Adjusted for Inflation from 1900 to 2015 May 27 Median Single-Family Home Prices Adjusted for Inflation Mar 07 Fed Funds Interest Rates vs. S&P500 Index Mar 04 S&P500 PE Ratio & CAPE History - Historical Price to Earnings Ratios Feb 13 US Federal Capital Gains Tax Brackets and Rates for 2015 Jan 27 2015 US Federal Income Tax Brackets & Federal Marginal Tax Rates Jan 26 Jim Cramer's 2014 Action Alerts Plus Charitable Trust Portfolio Performance Jan 02 Bob Brinker's "Follow-up Guidance" for Brinker's 2000 QQQ trade

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

 Subscribe NOW and get the Current Month for FREE!!!
[Just mention this ad for the special deal!]

(My SPECIAL ALERT emails will begin immediately plus access to all past issues while your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with the December issue.)