ECRI USFIG at 70-Month High - Inflation Pressures Continue Higher

On Thursday, July 3, 2014, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) for June 2014.  The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

In today's release, July 3, 2014, ECRI reported USFIG rose to 105.5 in June from the May reading of 105.0.

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Lakshman Achuthan,ECRI's managing director, said "With the USFIG trending up and hitting a 70-month high in June, underlying inflation pressures have risen further."

ECRI’s Recommended Books:

• Beating the Business Cycle By Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji
• Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore(Paperback) by Philip A. Klein (Editor)

ECRI's US FIG Indicates Building Inflation Pressure

On Friday June 6, 2014, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based independent forecasting group, released its latest readings for its proprietary U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) for May 2014.  The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

In the latest release, for the week ending May 16, 2014, USFIG rose ECRI’s USFIG rose a bit further in May to 105.2 from the March reading of 104.9.

Lakshman Achuthan,ECRI's managing director, said "With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build."

ECRI’s Recommended Books:

• Beating the Business Cycle By Lakshman Achuthan, Anirvan Banerji
• Analyzing Modern Business Cycles: Essays Honoring Geoffrey H. Moore (Paperback) by Philip A. Klein (Editor)
  

ECRI's US-FIG Down Again in May

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI, released its latest readings for its proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauges this morning.  ECRI says the value of their U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) "lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflatinon cycle."  (More about ECRI)

In May, the USFIG fell to 101.0, down from a revised 102.9 in April.    My chart below of CPI vs USFIG vs "expected inflation" for the next decade shows USFIG was down for the second straight month.

Commenting on today's release, ECRI's Co-Founder, Chief Operations Officer and author of "Beating the Business Cycle", Lakshman Achuthan said: "With the USFIG hitting a seven-month low, underlying inflation pressures have clearly begun to recede."

See charts of the data and more at my SeekingAlpha article:

ECRI's FIG Inflation Gauge Drops Again in May

also read:
 
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls Again; Economy to Slow Further in Coming Months 

More articles by Kirk Lindstrom at Seeking Alpha

ECRI's Future Inflation Guage at 9-Month High

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, ECRI - a New York-based independent forecasting group, released their latest readings for their proprietary monthly Future Inflation Gauge  (USFIG) this morning. (More about ECRI)

ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose again in January. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

The USFIG advanced to 101.6 (1992=100) in January from 100.5 in December, as did its smoothed annualized growth rate to 4.4% from 2.7%.

 Commenting on the data,  ECRI's Co-Founder, Chief Operations Officer and author of "Beating the Business Cycle", Lakshman Achuthan said: " With the USFIG climbing to a nine-month high, underlying inflation pressures are starting to simmer."

KEY ECRI Articles:

• Nov 30, 2010 "ECRI Calls for Revival of US Economic Growth"
• Oct 28, 2010 "The much-feared double-dip recession is not going to happen"
• Oct. 28, 2010 ECRI Warns of High Inflation Nightmare From QE2
• Sept. 24, 2010 ECRI - Premature to Predict New Recession
• July 01, 2010 ECRI Weekly Leading Indicators Widely Misunderstood
• Dec. 04, 2009: ECRI Warns of Lasting High Unemployment Despite Economic Recovery
• July 31, 2009: ECRI Predicts End of Home Price Downturn
• July 21, 2009:  ECRI Predicts The End of the Recession is Imminent
• April 3, 2009: ECRI Says US Business Cycle Recovery Ahead
• March 28, 2008: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

Lakshman Achuthan - Beating the Business Cycle

“This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too.”
—Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek columnist

" The Economic Cycle Research Institute can justify a certain smugness now that business cycles are back in fashion."
--Harvard Business Review

“Shows... how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it.”
—Jon Markman, award-winning CNBC/MSN financial columnist