State Street Investor Confidence Index vs The Markets

 Graphs of the "State Street Investor Confidence Index" vs the Stock Market Indexes

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Nasdaq

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Dow 

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State Street Investor Confidence Index Graph vs the Stock Markets

Graphs of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow 

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500 

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Nasdaq

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Dow

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• Using Asset Allocation to make money in a Flat Market
• Kirk on Timer Digest Cover
• Winning On The Zigs, Losing On The Zags
• Jim Cramer Action Alerts Plus Portfolio Returns by Year
• Beware of Annuities

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State Street Sentiment Index Plunges

 Graphs of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow

• Global Investor Confidence decreases 14.4 Points in December to 75.9 
• December’s reading is the lowest since the start of the pandemic 
• Link to Press Release

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Nasdaq

State Street Global Investor Confidence Index vs DJIA 

Market Update:

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Kirk Lindstrom's Investor Sentiment Charts

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Graph of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Bulls Minus Bears Sentiment Indicator vs the Dow.  

 Graph of the II, Investors Intelligence, Bulls and Bears Survey vs Log Dow Graphs  

Graphs of the "State Street Investor Confidence Index" vs the Stock Markets

CNN's Fear & Greed Index

CPC Put Call Ratio

Dow vs Oscillators 

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The Biden Barometer - Key Financial Markets Under President Biden

Graphs of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow

 Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500

State Street Global Investor Confidence Index vs DJIA 

Graph of State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Nasdaq $COMPQ

From State Street:

The State Street Investor Confidence Index® (the index) provides an objective, quantitative measure of global risk tolerance of the world’s sophisticated investors. Regional components measure separately the risk appetites of institutional investors in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

The Index is released at 10 a.m Eastern Time in the US, on the last Wednesday of each month.

The Premise

Confidence in the economy and the capital markets is a critical driver of economic and financial fluctuations and of the business cycle. When confidence increases, consumers and investors want to buy consumer goods, durables and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall.

Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising. However, rising prices are related both to good fundamentals, such as growth in industrial production and productivity, as well as to the underlying sentiment or mood of investors. A good confidence measure should indicate whether, for a given set of fundamentals, investors have an increased or decreased appetite for risk.

Quantitatively measuring shifts in investor sentiment presents a unique set of problems to researchers. Investor surveys are often outdated by the time they are released. On the institutional side, accuracy can be compromised as decision makers are often too busy to fill out surveys. In all cases, survey responses, like prices, tend to obscure the effects of fundamentals and investor sentiment.

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State Street Investor Confidence Index Near 6-Year Low

Today State Street said their Investor Confidence Index fell 3.4 points to 84.4.  This is the lowest reading since December 2012 when it was 81.4

Graph: State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P 500 

• “As major stock indices were hitting record highs near summer’s end, there were signs that institutional investors were reducing risk exposure,” commented Froot. “As we’ve progressed into fall, equities have declined further as the VIX has doubled. In the US, this month’s sell-off erased all 2018 year-to-date equity market gains, and amid concerns about high valuations and whether earnings may have peaked, some market participants seem to be anxious over a prolonged period of risk aversion.” 
• “The sharp downgrade our Investor Confidence Index recorded in September was one of the few early warning signs of the ensuing market turbulence that has followed. Confidence has fallen further in October and is more widespread, especially in Europe where not only are political risks rising, but growth is disappointing too. The main difference this month is that the Investor Confidence Index is no longer alone in pointing to potential vulnerabilities; business and consumer confidence are also beginning to wobble too,” commented Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy, State Street Global Markets.
• A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets.

Graph: State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the DJIA

Graph: State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Nasdaq

• The index is released globally at 10 a.m. Eastern time in Boston on the last Wednesday of each month. More information on the State Street Investor Confidence Index is available at http://www.statestreet.com/ideas/investor-confidence-index.html. 
• pdf: Investor Confidence Declined in October by 3.4 Points to 84.4

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According to State Street,

 "The Investor Confidence Index was developed by Kenneth Froot and Paul O’Connell at State Street Associates, State Street Global Exchange’s research and advisory services business. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors."

Regional Data:

11/1/18 Update:  Fear and Greed Index shows a similar outlook.

Live Fear & Greed Readings

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State Street Investor Confidence Index at 18 Month Low

Yesterday State Street said their Investor Confidence Index fell to an 18-month low of 94.3.

• pdf: Investor Confidence Declined in August by 7.4 points to 94.3
  
• “After a few months of caution and measured risk appetite, global institutional investors have started to display risk-averse behavior as they navigate through elevated trade uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil. This sentiment was also seen across global equity markets as defensive sectors outperformed. The decline in confidence was particularly apparent for North American investors, with the North American ICI recording its lowest reading of the year,” commented Kenneth Froot.
  
• A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets.
  
• Graph: State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the S&P500 

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According to State Street,

 "The Investor Confidence Index was developed by Kenneth Froot and Paul O’Connell at State Street Associates, State Street Global Exchange’s research and advisory services business. It measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors."

State Street Investor Confidence Index vs the Dow

Today, the State Street Investor Confidence Index fell to 91.3 from last month's revised lower reading of 95.5.   

• Last month the original reading for October 2013 was 95.7
• The all-time high is 141.8 
• The all-time low is 80.5
• Chart of State Street Investor Confidence Index (ICI) versus S&P500 

This chart shows the Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average) plotted against the monthly reading for the State Street Investor Confidence Index.

Click to view full size chart 

According to State Street, "The State Street Investor Confidence Index® measures confidence directly and quantitatively by assessing the changes in investor holdings of equities, implementing a model developed by State Street Global Markets’ research partnership, State Street Associates. The more of their portfolio that institutional investors are willing to devote to equities, the greater the risk appetite or confidence."

This table shows my newsletter "Core and Explore Portfolios" from 1998 through the end of Q3

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