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Saturday, March 22, 2008

Market Update for March 22, 2008

Market Statistics for 03/22/08

Year to date, the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite are down 15.6%, 13.4% and 21.1% from their all time highs made in late 2007.

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ Composite have been down as much as 20.2% and 24.7% while the DJIA has "only" been down 19.4%, just shy of the 20% decline required for an "official" bear market definition some use.

S&P 500 (More Charts) :
Click the charts courtesy of stockcharts.com to see them in greater detail.

  • (Using Intraday prices):
    Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
    Last Market low 03/17/08 at 1,256.98
    Current S&P500 Price 1,329.51
    Decline in Pts 246.58
    Decline in % 15.6%
    Max Decline 20.2%
This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 20.2% and we are currently 15.6% off the peak.

The decline from the high to the low on a closing basis is 18.6%
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DJIA (More Charts) (Using Intraday prices):

  • Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
    Last Market Low 01/22/08 at 11,508.74
    Current DJIA Price 12,361.32
    Decline in Pts 1918.64
    Decline in % 13.4%
    Max Decline 19.4%
This means the correction from high to low has been 19.4% and we are currently 13.4% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 17.1%

NASDAQ (More Charts)

  • (Using Intraday prices):
    Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
    Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
    Current NASDAQ Price 2,258.11
    Decline in Pts 603.40
    Decline in % 21.1%
    Max Decline 24.7%

This means the correction from high to low has been 24.7% and we are currently 21.1% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 24.1%

FIXED INCOME:

The yield curve is very healty for banks with the 30 year T-bond paying 4.17% and the 3-month T-bill only paying 0.61%, a spread of 3.56%.

See: The Yield Curve Spread as a Market Predictor

This sort of a spread usually signals a strong stock market ahead just as the inverted yield curve in late 2006 and early 2007 correctly predicted the recession or near recession we are in now.

From 1/1/1999 through 03/22/08:
    Kirk's 80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio is up 62.6%
    Kirk's 50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio is up 67.3%
    Kirk's 70:30 Explore Portfolio is up 175.7%

    80% Core Aggressive plus 20% Explore is up 85.3%
    90% Core Conservative plus 10% Explore is up 78.2%

    100% Total Stock Market (VTSMX) is up 35.6%

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the March 2008 issue FOR FREE!

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