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Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Yield Curve Spread as a Market Predictor

This graph shows the 30-Year Treasury Bond (T-Bond) interest rate divided by the 3-month Treasury Bill (T-Bill) discount rate with the S&P500 price on the same graph.

Click chart courtesy of to see it full sized.

Historically, periods with an inverted yield curve (circled areas) have been followed by a recession and falling stock prices.

The chart may speak for itself but to get my take on what this chart indicates for the future, read the April 2008 edition of "Kirk's Investment Newsletter" due out around Easter which is March 23 this year.

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