US Treasury Rates and Yield Curve

  US Treasury Interest Rate graphs from 1/1/94 through 9/7/24

US Treasury Yield Curve
from https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ 

US Treasury Interest Rates

From https://home.treasury.gov/ 

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US Treasury Rates and Yield Curve

 US Treasury Interest Rate graphs from 1/1/94 through 9/30/23

US Treasury Yield Curve
from https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ 

 US Treasury Interest Rates

From https://home.treasury.gov/ 

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Market Update, Interest Rates, Yield Curve & US Treasury Debt

Market Update for September 15, 2023

 FZDXX Money Market Fund:

US Treasury Yield Curve 

https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

Canada Bond Yield Curve 

Total Treasury Debt

Ask questions and read discussion on my Facebook Investing for the Long-Term group.

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US Treasury Rates, Graphs & Yield Curve

 US Treasury Interest Rate graphs through 7/21/23

US Treasury Yield Curve
from https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/ 

 US Treasury Interest Rates

From https://home.treasury.gov/ 

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Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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Relationships between Treasury Rates, Yield Curve Inversions, Recessions and the Stock Market

Here are some charts showing clear relationships between US Treasury rates, yield curve Inversions, recessions and the Stock Market.

This is the curve that has so many talking about inversion with the 3-month US treasury paying 0.02% more than the 10-year US Treasury.

Yield Curve 10yr - 3Mo

This is the curve that looks out 30 years compared to 1 year:

Yield Curve 30yr-1yr

Yield Curve:  30yr / 3Mo

Rates 10 & 30 Year USTs

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Speaking about yield inversion, Art Cashin, UBS Director of Floor Operations, said on CNBC on 3/25/19:

Every inversion is not followed by a recession but every recession is proceeded by an inversion.  So is it worrisome, Yes?  Is it a guarantee?  No.

S&P 500 Chart:

More S&P 500 Charts

US Treasury Yield Curves for 2018 by Kirk

Many blame the stock markets' huge decline today on worries the yield curve (Figure 1) will fully invert. Inverted yield curves often, but not always, precede recessions. Just today the markets fell between 3.1% and 4.4% as Figure 2 below shows.  

Generally the larger the inversion the higher the odds of a recession in the next year.  

Fig 1

Today's Market Action

Fig 2

You can see from the graph above and table below that short term rates are higher than on 9/28/18 while intermediate to long term rates have fallen which is what has to happen before the yield curve inverts.  

Fig 3

A "healthy" yield curve has rates increasing with term from one month to thirty years which we do not have now.

The yield curve is reflecting fear the "Trump Trade War" will push the country into a recession.  

Fig 4
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The Stock markets, as this table shows, are down between 6.7% and 15.0% below their recent, all time peak values with the Russell 2000 small cap index down the most!

Fig 5

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Fig 6

Fig 7

Yield Curve Definition from Wikipedia

The Yield Curve Spread as a Market Predictor

This graph shows the 30-Year Treasury Bond (T-Bond) interest rate divided by the 3-month Treasury Bill (T-Bill) discount rate with the S&P500 price on the same graph.

Click chart courtesy of StockCharts.com to see it full sized.

Historically, periods with an inverted yield curve (circled areas) have been followed by a recession and falling stock prices.

The chart may speak for itself but to get my take on what this chart indicates for the future, read the April 2008 edition of "Kirk's Investment Newsletter" due out around Easter which is March 23 this year.