Historical CD, Bond & Mortgage Rates Update

CD and US Treasury rates are lower than at any time in the last 45 years. Click the graphs below, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, to see full size images.

6-Month Certificate of Deposit: Secondary Market Rate

Observation Range: 1964-06-12 to 2009-10-09

20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity RateObservation Range: 1953-04 to 2009-09

20-Year TIP (Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security)

Observation Range: 2004-07-30 to 2009-10-09

Expectations for future inflation are low.

Expected Inflation or TIPS Spread is the difference between nominal US Treasury bond rates and rates on US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. This spread is an indicator of expected inflation.

• Using 10 year rates, expected inflation is 1.72%
• Using 30 year rates, expected inflation is 1.98%

This graph shows expected inflation vs. the growth rate of ECRI’s FIG

Click for Full Size Image

Supply and demand issues can distort the spread so buyers need to beware. For example, the Federal Reserve has been busy buying US Treasuries to help banks and the economy by keeping rates low, perhaps artificially low. This spread could widen when the Fed stops buying treasuries or goes into tightening mode.

If you believe massive government spending using debt rather than taxes to pay for it will cause inflation, then you will want to lock in a low mortgage rate now before mortgage rates return to 1970s levels.

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate

Observation Range: 1971-04 to 2009-09

More Charts and Data at

• Expected Inflation - TIPS Spread
• Best CD Rate Survey at Top US Banks
• US Treasury Rates at a Glance
• St. Louis Fed Interest Rate page
• 6-Month CD: Secondary Market Rate
• 20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
• 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security (TIP)
• 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate