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Wednesday, March 03, 2010

FNSR: Finisar up 571% Over Past Year

A year ago today I added to my Finisar (Ticker FNSR Chart and Quote) holdings at 24¢ (This is $1.92 at today's split adjusted price)

See PDF file: Finisar Mar 3 Buy Alert at 24¢

Today Finisar is $12.89!! (or $1.61 at the pre-split price)

The Gain is (12.89-$1.92)/$1.92x100% = 571%!

What were you doing a year ago? Buying or selling?

Going forward, I still like Finisar and hold it in both new personal and newsletter explore portfolios.

Excerpts from the March issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" about Finisar:

On Feb 9 Finisar said it expects to report revenues of $166 to $167M for its fiscal Q3 ended January 31, 2010. Its prior revenue guidance was $148 to $158M. In the absence of a material adjustment, Q3 revenues will set a new record for Finisar surpassing the previous combined sales for Finisar and Optium of approximately $163M for the fiscal quarter ended July 31, 2008, just prior to the merger of the two companies and the market melt-down. Based on these projections, Finisar expects to be at the upper end of its original guidance for Q3 on a non-GAAP basis of 30%-32% for gross margin and 6%-8% for operating margin. Sequential revenues will be up about 14.3% over Q2-2010 and 32.1% over last year, Q3-2009! This is the great performance I expected and expect to continue. It is why I bought so many shares of Finisar during the downturn.

6%-8% operating margin on $166 to $167M revenue implies earnings between $10.0M and $13.4M or 15¢ to 21¢ per share.

Finisar should continue to grow operating margin as the costs from merging with Optium end and the new efficiencies take hold. Margins will also improve with volume which I predict will continue to grow at a high rate for many years, subject to gyrations of the economic cycle.

I think FNSR could easily do $1.00 per share in 2011 where a PE of 20 for their growth would be very reasonable. Add in some exuberance as others jump on the bandwidth-wagon and a PE of 40 would be a good target to take major profits at. I find it amazing that FNSR is still cheap with a PE of only 13.5 on FY 2011 earnings. FY2011, only months away, is when we will get FY2012 earnings estimates that should be significantly higher. I expect we will see $20 in a year, if not sooner.

Click table to see full size image

My only regret is I didn't buy even more!

I actually bought Finisar shares 6 different times at prices lower than today.

After buying when very low, I took some profits when it soared. Then I bought some back on a correction. Now I and am back to taking profits, a little at a time, as I hope it continues higher.

If Finisar corrects enough, I may buy shares back again unless my opinion on Finisar changes and I sell all shares.

Disclaimer: I own FNSR in my personal and newsletter portfolios. I may trade around a very profitable core position at any time. I often have buy and sell targets in my newsletter where I announce "Auto Buys" and "Auto Sells" (limit orders with your broker) ahead of time.

Note: A day later I bought some GE at $6.76. See
Give it time to load as it is pdf on a slow server.

Click for full size image courtesy of

Current FNSR Chart and Quote

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Performance

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