Q2 2008 PCE, GDP and Jobs All Better Than Expected

The Q2-2008 PCE (Personal consumption expenditures) price index remains high and was unchanged at up 4.2%.

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Oil and food prices are down now so headline inflation should be lower in future quarters if oil and food remain

Led by strong exports, Q2 Real gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up to 3.3% from 1.9%. Report excerpts:

"Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.

The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, nonresidential structures, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and equipment and software. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased

Real exports of goods and services increased 13.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 5.1 percent in the first.

Real imports of goods and services decreased 7.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 0.8 percent.

Kirk: The weak dollar led to lower imports and higher exports. A weak economy also leads to lower imports. Since what we imported fell by 7.6%, then 7.6% is added to GDP. Had Q2 imports remained flat, GDP would have been 7.6% lower or negative 4.0%!

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The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment."

Jobless claims for the week ended 8/23 fell 10,000 to 425,000.

The 4-week moving average of jobless claims fell 6,000 to 440,250

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==>US Inflation Data - August 2008 Release Summary <==

Next release - September 26, 2008 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for Second Quarter 2008 (Final) Gross Domestic Product