Unimpressed with Current Economic Data, ECRI Still Forecasts A Recession
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group also know as ECRI, continues to see a US recession in our future. Even after a large rebound for the stock market with coincident economic data coming in better than expected, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director, is not impressed. (More about ECRI)
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group also know as ECRI, continues to see a US recession in our future. Even after a large rebound for the stock market with coincident economic data coming in better than expected, Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director, is not impressed. (More about ECRI)
Achuthan says economists on the Street are only “now-casting” which is not the proper way to forecast recessions. Lakshman said that on average “it is about six months inside of the recession that people realize there’s a recession”. ECRI is still forecasting a recession as he sees “contagion among forward looking indicators.”
"A lot of people are happy with GDP numbers" but "in the past century the vast majority of all recessions have begun in a quarter that showed positive GDP growth."
Watch his full CNBC interview here:
Read ECRI's Recession Call at:
- September 30, 2011: ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Falls: Jobs To Get Worse Under Recession-Bound U.S. Economy
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