Fed Funds Rate vs US Stock Market Indexes - Historical Charts

This chart shows the US Federal Funds Rate vs. the US stock market index values from 1993 through today.  The next three charts show the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes over the same period.  The final chart shows US Treasury interest rates from 1994 through today.

US Stock Markets (Log Scale) vs. Fed Funds Rate 

DJIA chart showing Irrational Exuberance & Pessimism on a log scale

S&P 500 Intraday Prices - Log Scale

Nasdaq Composite - Intraday log chart

 US Treasury interest rates

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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More Articles by Kirk Lindstrom:

• Using Asset Allocation to make money in a Flat Market
• Inflation Hot at 8.3% but Monthly Readings Much Lower with Energy Falling
• May Jobs Report Shows Fewest New Private Sector Jobs in a Year

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Real S&P500 Price with Dividends Reinvested - Inflation Adjusted Returns

This graph shows the real (Inflation adjusted) price of S&P 500 with dividends reinvested from 1870 through 2012.

Chart source Silicon Investor

This next graph shows my Explore Portfolio since inception in 1998, over 14 years ago.

"Kirk's Two Investment Letters - Which is Best for You?"

This table shows my "core" and my "Explore" portfolio values since January 1999.

For more conservative investors who have no interest in individual stocks, I co-edit "The Retirement Advisor"  where our most aggressive model portfolio is slightly less aggressive then the "core conservative portfolio" in Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter." 

For more explanation, see  "Kirk's Two Investment Letters - Which is Best for You?"

Historical Semiconductor Valuation Charts

I found these Historical Semiconductor Valuation Charts from 1987 to 2002 on my hard drive under:
C:\Users\Kirk\Documents\Kirk's Documents\Investments\Historical Info\Valuation Graphs

Now compare those valuations to today's valuation for a few stocks I follow in my newsletter.

AMAT

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 13.09B Enterprise Value (Oct 31, 2012)3: 12.96B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.70 Forward P/E (fye Oct 30, 2013)1: 14.30 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.85 Price/Sales (ttm): 1.42 Price/Book (mrq): 1.58 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.40 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 6.92

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMAT+Key+Statistics

LRCX

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 6.36B Enterprise Value (Oct 31, 2012)3: 4.92B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 49.10 Forward P/E (fye Jun 24, 2014)1: 10.40 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 0.77 Price/Sales (ttm): 2.20 Price/Book (mrq): 1.27 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.70 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 11.99

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LRCX+Key+Statistics

INTC

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 108.51B Enterprise Value (Oct 31, 2012)3: 106.35B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 9.47 Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2013)1: 11.03 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 0.86 Price/Sales (ttm): 2.04 Price/Book (mrq): 2.23 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.98 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 4.59

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=INTC+Key+Statistics

ALTR

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday)5: 9.68B Enterprise Value (Oct 31, 2012)3: 7.25B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 16.88 Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2013)1: 15.97 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: 1.42 Price/Sales (ttm): 5.41 Price/Book (mrq): 2.98 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.03 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)6: 11.18

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ALTR+Key+Statistics

I saved those graphs because in late 2002 it looked like the sector was bottoming and I was a big buyer.  As it turned out, the market did bottom in late 2002 and then tested the bottom in 2003 but many of the stocks I bought in 2002 were much higher by the March 2003 test of the 2002 bottom.

LRCX

AMAT

Do you think history will repeat here?